Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -23.9 365
Expected Predictive Rating -28.3 365
Pace 67.8 207
Improvement -0.4 202

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F #365 F+ F+ F D+ F
Defense F+ #363 F+ F C F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 356 52% 320 -7.3 358
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 1 38% 163 +7.6 1
Three Pointers 31% 351 28% 361 -8.2 359
1st FG Attempt 0.86 359 -7.9 359
Second Chance 24.1% 338 0.88 338 0.21 350
Turnovers 21.4% 355
Freethrows 0.27 279 71% 236 0.19 280
Total Offense -14.4 365

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 292 67% 354 -1.0 210
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 325 39% 225 +1.8 52
Three Pointers 50% 10 39% 349 -8.3 362
1st FG Attempt 1.17 360 -7.4 360
Second Chance 37.1% 354 1.20 353 0.45 361
Turnovers 16.6% 197
Freethrows 0.39 357 75% 329 0.29 359
Total Defense -9.5 363

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -3.1 365 +0.4 240
Shot Type Accuracy -4.9 331 +6.8 360
Possession Length 18.6 309 16.5 46
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 206 0.24 348
Improvement -0.3 #201 -0.1 #198

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 10 - 9
Quad 41 - 211 - 30


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 118 @UAB L 55 - 106 1% -29  0% 0 - 1 F -45 F -27 F D- F F+ -10 D F D
 Fri, Nov 7 112 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1% -21  3% 0 - 2 F -42 F -22 F F F F -15 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 102 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1% -18  0% 0 - 3 F -24 F+ -9 D F+ B+ F -17 F F D
 Fri, Nov 14 203 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 3% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -9 D- -6 C+ F C C- -2 C- B- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 323 Manhattan L 73 - 80 10% -5  7% 0 - 5 F+ -17 D+ -4 D+ A+ F F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 7% -10  20% 0 - 6 F -23 F -13 D F B- F+ -9 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 31 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0% -20  0% 0 - 7 F -18 C- -0 A+ C F F -11 D F C
 Wed, Dec 3 356 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 13% -4  13% 0 - 8 F -26 F -25 F F C+ C -1 D C- C+
 Mon, Dec 8 101 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 1% -32  0% 0 - 9 F -51 F -27 F F F F -19 F F B
 Tue, Dec 16 214 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 6% -9  4% 0 - 10 F -30 F -16 C+ D F F -12 F D+ B-
 Fri, Dec 19 93 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1% -29  0% 0 - 11 F -39 F -25 F F F F -11 D+ D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 56 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0% -20  0% 0 - 12 F -22 D -5 F B- B+ F -23 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 54 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0% -9  18% 0 - 13 D -11 B +7 B+ C- C F -21 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 14% -9  1% 0 - 14 0 - 1 F -33 F -14 D F F F -18 F D B+
 Mon, Jan 5 305 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 12% -10  11% 0 - 15 0 - 2 F -31 F -29 F F+ F C- -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 336 @Prairie View L 69 - 70 8% +2  61% 0 - 16 0 - 3 D -9 F -11 D- D F C+ +2 D A- C
 Mon, Jan 12 309 @Texas Southern L 51 - 84 6% -18  0% 0 - 17 0 - 4 F -39 F -26 F C F F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 227 Bethune-Cookman L 63 - 79 6% -7  1% 0 - 18 0 - 5 F -23 F -10 F A- A+ F -13 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 328 Florida A&M L 48 - 62 17% -13  0% 0 - 19 0 - 6 F -28 F -28 F F B- C -1 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 264 @Southern L 69 - 80 4% -5  3% 0 - 20 0 - 7 D- -14 D- -6 D D- D+ D- -7 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70 - 78 14% -7  6% 0 - 21 0 - 8 F -20 F -13 D+ F F D -7 C C- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 343 Jackson St. L 81 - 97 20% -6  26% 0 - 22 0 - 9 F -31 F+ -9 D F B F -21 C- F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 351 Alcorn St. L 66 - 74 23% -12  0% 0 - 23 0 - 10 F -24 D -5 F C- C- F -20 F C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 305 @Alabama A&M L 59 - 78 4%
 Mon, Feb 16 316 @Alabama St. L 63 - 80 5%
 Thu, Feb 19 336 @Prairie View L 68 - 84 7%
 Sat, Feb 21 309 Texas Southern L 67 - 79 13%
 Mon, Feb 23 285 @Grambling St. L 57 - 77 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 313 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 84 5%
 Tue, Mar 3 351 @Alcorn St. L 65 - 79 9%
 Thu, Mar 5 343 @Jackson St. L 67 - 82 8%
Totals 1 - 30 0 - 17 -24 F -14 F+ F+ F F+ -10 F+ F C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F D C F D- 29% 40% 31% F F+ D- D- F+ F D+ C- D+ F+ F+ C- F+ F 35% 16% 50% C- F+ F+ F+ F C F+ D F
0.88 52% 38% 28% -5 -3 0.86 24% 0.9 .21 21% .27 71% .19 1.22 67% 39% 39% +7 0 1.17 37% 1.2 .45 17% .39 75% .21
Nov
3		 UAB F F F F F 26% 32% 42% F F F A+ D- F A- A+ A+ F+ F B+ B- D- 35% 27% 38% B D C- F F D F A F
0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31 1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30
Nov
7		 Murray St. F D F F+ F 29% 43% 29% F F B- F F F A A+ A+ F F A+ F F 36% 6% 58% D- F F A+ A+ F C- A B-
0.77 50% 29% 29% -9 -4 0.78 36% 0.5 .17 30% .39 86% .33 1.39 83% 25% 41% +14 +2 1.33 41% 0.5 .20 6% .35 68% .23
Nov
12		 Hawaii F+ C F C+ C 20% 52% 28% F D D F F+ B+ D A- C- F F A+ F F 40% 13% 47% C F F C F D F D+ F
0.84 55% 29% 33% -6 -5 0.80 23% 0.8 .18 14% .26 73% .19 1.32 74% 17% 45% +12 +1 1.28 48% 1.1 .52 17% .52 76% .40
Nov
14		 Utah Tech D- A+ B- F B 31% 29% 41% F C+ F F F C F A+ F C- F F+ A+ C- 32% 17% 51% C+ C- D- A B- D+ F B F
1.01 83% 41% 25% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.5 .11 16% .18 82% .14 1.09 82% 44% 26% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.6 .22 15% .44 68% .30
Nov
15		 Manhattan D+ D A+ F C+ 27% 43% 31% F D+ D+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ B F F F D F 27% 12% 61% D F F D- F A- F C- F
1.14 54% 62% 27% +6 -4 1.06 35% 1.8 .61 20% .21 100% .21 1.25 73% 60% 36% +9 0 1.20 48% 1.2 .56 20% .62 81% .51
Nov
22		 Cal St. Bakersfield F D+ A- F C- 35% 46% 19% F D F F F B- A F B- F+ D+ B A C+ 32% 25% 43% D C F+ F F F F B+ F
0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29 1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
25		 Texas A&M C- B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ A F C F B+ C+ B+ F B F+ F D 39% 4% 58% C- D D F F C F F F
0.97 65% 50% 53% +17 -1 1.33 40% 0.7 .27 36% .34 74% .25 1.39 55% 50% 45% +9 +2 1.25 37% 1.2 .46 15% .68 84% .57
Dec
3		 Louisiana Monroe F F F F F 27% 43% 29% F F F F F C+ C- C- C- C F A+ B D 36% 17% 48% D+ D C- C- C- C+ F B F
0.80 50% 32% 13% -14 -4 0.67 26% 0.8 .21 15% .24 69% .16 1.02 80% 0% 30% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.0 .24 18% .55 69% .38
Dec
8		 Kansas St. F F F D- F 27% 46% 27% F F D- F F F C A+ B- F D+ F F F 42% 7% 51% F+ F F+ F F B C F D+
0.64 36% 25% 29% -14 -4 0.65 27% 0.6 .16 25% .28 81% .23 1.42 65% 50% 54% +19 +2 1.44 40% 1.4 .57 18% .26 81% .21
Dec
16		 Tarleton St. F C+ A+ D- C+ 43% 27% 30% D C+ F A+ D F F D- F F D A F F 51% 14% 35% F F D+ D+ D+ B- D F F
0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16 1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34
Dec
19		 Florida St. F A D F F+ 24% 37% 39% F F D+ F F F A+ F B F F B- B- D 33% 11% 56% C+ D+ F C D- C- F+ F+ F
0.66 70% 33% 19% -8 -3 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 34% .45 55% .24 1.29 74% 33% 31% +3 +1 1.09 41% 1.1 .46 13% .37 79% .29
Dec
22		 West Virginia D C+ D- F D- 32% 55% 14% F F A- D B- B+ B A+ A+ F C B+ F F 46% 6% 48% F F F F F F C- F D-
0.87 57% 25% 17% -11 -5 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 15% .28 100% .28 1.47 59% 33% 48% +10 +2 1.27 41% 1.5 .63 10% .34 78% .27
Dec
29		 Oklahoma B F B+ A+ A- 33% 35% 33% D- B+ D B C- C B- A B+ F F F F F 23% 15% 62% B F F F F C- C- C- C-
1.12 40% 44% 53% +6 -2 1.09 25% 1.1 .29 16% .31 81% .25 1.52 73% 71% 45% +19 0 1.38 46% 1.5 .69 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
3		 Alabama St. F A- F B+ D+ 37% 33% 30% F D F D- F F A B A+ F F F F+ F 39% 22% 39% D+ F F B- D B+ F F F
0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36 1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49
Jan
5		 Alabama A&M F F C- F F 30% 36% 34% F F F C F+ F C D- C- C- A- A+ C B 43% 14% 43% F C+ F D F A+ F F F
0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23 1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47
Jan
10		 Prairie View F F A C D+ 35% 37% 29% F D- C+ F D F D+ F F+ C+ A- F+ D- F+ 24% 40% 36% A D B+ A+ A- C F A+ F
0.97 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .32 25% .36 63% .23 0.99 45% 44% 38% +1 -3 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 15% .60 61% .37
Jan
12		 Texas Southern F F F D- F 47% 31% 22% F+ F D+ B C F F+ F F F C A+ F F 31% 10% 60% F F D- F F A- A- D B+
0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12 1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Bethune-Cookman F F A- F F 35% 27% 39% F F F A+ A- A+ B+ F C F D+ F F F 33% 20% 48% C+ F F F F B+ D B+ C-
0.95 35% 46% 26% -10 -1 0.80 14% 3.5 .48 9% .38 61% .23 1.19 62% 50% 53% +17 0 1.35 38% 1.6 .62 21% .36 63% .23
Jan
19		 Florida A&M F F C- F F 15% 45% 40% F F F F F B- F+ F+ F C C- C+ B+ C+ 33% 20% 47% C- C F F F A+ D F F
0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19 0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26
Jan
28		 Southern D- F+ A C- C- 18% 41% 41% F D C+ F D- D+ F F F D- F F A+ D- 27% 49% 24% A+ C- C+ F F C+ F F F
1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09 1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F C A F C 38% 42% 20% F D+ F A+ F F A+ B+ A+ D C- A- F D+ 37% 37% 26% A C C D C- D- F B+ F
0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39 1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40
Feb
7		 Jackson St. F+ D+ A C+ C 30% 39% 30% F D F F F B B D- C+ F A+ F C+ C+ 30% 6% 64% F C- F F F C+ F F+ F
1.07 59% 45% 35% +4 -3 1.04 26% 0.8 .21 13% .37 67% .24 1.28 40% 67% 31% -6 +1 0.92 53% 1.6 .84 20% .58 83% .48
Feb
9		 Alcorn St. D F A+ F D- 28% 42% 30% F F B- D- C- C- A+ F C F F A+ F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F A+ F C+ F F C- F
1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25 1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 66.0 27.1 6.0 0.8 0.1 100.0 12th
Total 66.0 27.1 6.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 6.0% 6.0
1-17 27.1% 27.1
0-18 66.0% 66.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 58.3%