Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.3 94
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 115
Pace 66.8 235
Improvement -1.6 260

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #124 B- C C+ C- C-
Defense B- #70 B- B+ C C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 267 65% 43 +0.7 151
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 157 37% 193 +0.2 169
Three Pointers 43% 142 35% 143 +1.6 124
1st FG Attempt 1.07 101 +2.5 102
Second Chance 27.9% 254 1.11 67 0.31 181
Turnovers 16.1% 126
Freethrows 0.30 219 70% 267 0.21 236
Total Offense +1.6 124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 243 56% 136 +1.7 118
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 24 34% 46 -1.6 301
Three Pointers 36% 325 33% 158 +2.9 66
1st FG Attempt 0.96 79 +3.0 80
Second Chance 25.4% 26 0.95 78 0.24 30
Turnovers 16.8% 188
Freethrows 0.31 214 70% 61 0.22 183
Total Defense +3.7 70

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 237 -1.0 37
Shot Type Accuracy +2.8 85 -2.0 99
Possession Length 18.2 272 16.8 96
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 322 0.14 94
Improvement -1.5 #276 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 18% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 94% 97% 82%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round17% 18% 13%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 34 - 5
Quad 38 - 612 - 11
Quad 48 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 199 @Ohio L 68 - 72 68% -2  21% 0 - 1 C- -4 F+ -8 D+ F C+ B +4 D A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 159 Cornell W 76 - 65 79% +4  72% 1 - 1 B- +8 F -11 D- D+ F A+ +18 A+ B D
 Fri, Nov 14 47 USC L 67 - 87 28% -12  3% 1 - 2 D -9 C- -1 D B- B D- -9 C- C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 251 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 76% +4  88% 2 - 2 C -0 B+ +8 C- F+ A+ D- -8 D- C F
 Sun, Nov 23 238 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 88% +29  91% 3 - 2 A+ +45 A +11 A+ D+ A A+ +30 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 168 Charlotte W 79 - 69 71% +8  96% 4 - 2 B +9 B +6 B C+ A B +4 D- A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 176 Furman W 72 - 65 73% +4  81% 5 - 2 B- +6 C +0 C+ B- C B +6 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 267 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 90% +9  96% 6 - 2 C+ +2 B- +4 B+ A D+ C- -3 C- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 353 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 97% +30  99% 7 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +15 A B B- A +12 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 35 Utah St. L 78 - 83 20% -6  7% 7 - 3 B +9 A +12 A+ A+ F C- -3 D D- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 127 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 51% -0  35% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B+ +12 B +6 B A C+ B +6 C+ D- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 197 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 84% +15  84% 9 - 3 2 - 0 A- +15 A- +10 A- F+ A+ B +5 C+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 177 @Drake W 73 - 56 63% +8  79% 10 - 3 3 - 0 A +19 C +1 A+ F F A+ +18 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 273 Evansville W 73 - 47 91% +14  84% 11 - 3 4 - 0 A- +17 D- -7 C- F A A+ +23 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 155 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 59% -5  3% 11 - 4 4 - 1 C- -3 B- +5 C- B A- D- -8 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 137 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 75% -1  13% 11 - 5 4 - 2 D+ -6 F -15 F C- B+ A- +9 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 197 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 68% -6  7% 11 - 6 4 - 3 C- -4 A+ +16 A B A- F -21 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 120 Bradley W 88 - 62 70% +13  89% 12 - 6 5 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +17 A B+ A+ A +10 A+ B+ B+
 Wed, Jan 21 100 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 62% +5  76% 13 - 6 6 - 3 B- +7 D -5 D+ B+ F A+ +13 A+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 78 @Belmont L 69 - 80 31% -6  11% 13 - 7 6 - 4 C -1 D+ -4 F+ A- D B- +3 D- A B-
 Wed, Jan 28 112 @Murray St. W 70 - 65 46% +3  75% 14 - 7 7 - 4 B+ +11 D -5 B- C D+ A+ +16 A+ B+ F+
 Tue, Feb 3 127 Southern Illinois L 50 - 54 73% -1  28% 14 - 8 7 - 5 D+ -5 F -20 F F+ B- A+ +15 B+ A+ A
 Fri, Feb 6 177 Drake W 86 - 76 81% +12  99% 15 - 8 8 - 5 B- +6 B- +5 B+ C+ C+ C+ +1 B- B- C
 Mon, Feb 9 273 @Evansville L 80 - 88 79% -9  15% 15 - 9 8 - 6 D- -11 B+ +9 A- F A+ F -21 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 155 Valparaiso W 72 - 64 78%
 Sun, Feb 15 137 @Illinois-Chicago W 70 - 69 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 112 Murray St. W 83 - 78 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 120 @Bradley L 72 - 73 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 100 @Northern Iowa L 61 - 64 40%
 Sun, Mar 1 78 Belmont W 77 - 76 53%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +5 C+ +2 B- C C+ B- +4 B- B+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B+ C- C+ B- 35% 22% 43% C- B- D+ B- C C+ C- D+ C- B- C+ B C B- 37% 28% 36% B+ B- B+ B- B+ C C- B C
1.11 65% 37% 35% +3 0 1.07 28% 1.1 .31 16% .30 70% .21 1.03 56% 34% 33% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .24 17% .31 70% .21
Nov
6		 Ohio F+ C- A F+ D+ 44% 18% 38% C+ D+ F D- F C+ F F F B D- B+ A+ C 70% 16% 14% F D A+ A- A+ F F A+ D+
0.97 54% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 23% 0.9 .21 16% .19 55% .10 1.03 66% 38% 14% +1 +3 1.10 16% 0.8 .13 11% .44 56% .24
Nov
9		 Cornell F C+ F B D 33% 29% 38% F D- C D D+ F A+ F A- A+ C A+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% A A+ A D- B D F B F+
1.05 63% 29% 39% +2 -1 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 19% .56 52% .29 0.90 60% 22% 17% -16 0 0.70 23% 1.3 .30 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
14		 USC C- F+ A+ F D- 33% 18% 49% C+ D A+ F+ B- B D- A+ C D- F+ F B+ D+ 42% 24% 34% C C- B+ F+ C- F F A- D-
0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21 1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35
Nov
16		 Long Beach St. B+ B B F C- 43% 24% 33% C C- F B+ F+ A+ A+ B A+ D- D- B F F+ 29% 35% 36% B D- C- C+ C F C- A+ B
1.21 65% 45% 27% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.4 .23 9% .63 79% .50 1.18 69% 32% 45% +7 -2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 9% .29 56% .16
Nov
23		 Coastal Carolina A C A- A+ A+ 25% 34% 41% D A+ F+ A+ D+ A B- A- B A+ B C A+ A+ 17% 40% 43% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.26 53% 48% 48% +11 -3 1.18 19% 1.3 .26 8% .32 77% .25 0.56 50% 38% 12% -16 -4 0.62 13% 0.3 .04 13% .08 60% .05
Nov
27		 Charlotte B C A+ C+ B 41% 15% 43% B B C B C+ A A+ D+ A+ B C- A F F 36% 25% 39% A D- B+ A+ A+ B F A+ D+
1.20 58% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.11 30% 1.2 .37 11% .53 68% .36 1.05 63% 27% 53% +10 -1 1.20 29% 0.3 .09 21% .44 61% .27
Nov
28		 Furman C A B- C- B 20% 37% 43% F C+ D+ A+ B- C A- D- B B B C F+ C- 39% 14% 47% C C- A+ A+ A+ C A- A+ A
1.08 70% 42% 32% +3 -3 1.00 27% 1.3 .36 15% .32 67% .21 0.97 55% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.7 .13 19% .20 55% .11
Dec
3		 Eastern Kentucky B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 41% 16% 43% B- B+ D A+ A D+ C+ A- B- C- C+ B D- D+ 18% 30% 52% A- C- B+ F+ C C+ F A- F
1.25 57% 63% 45% +11 +1 1.25 29% 1.6 .46 17% .34 80% .27 1.10 56% 33% 38% +2 -3 1.00 28% 1.3 .36 18% .40 65% .26
Dec
6		 Chicago St. A+ A+ F A- A 34% 4% 62% B- A A+ F B B- F+ F F A C+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 41% 35% A- A+ F+ C- D- A+ D+ F F
1.42 89% 0% 39% +14 +2 1.34 55% 0.9 .47 18% .27 53% .15 0.79 50% 15% 24% -17 -4 0.61 34% 0.9 .32 22% .29 93% .27
Dec
13		 Utah St. A A+ B+ D+ A+ 39% 32% 30% D+ A+ B- A+ A+ F C+ A+ B C- D- A+ F D 54% 13% 33% D+ D F A+ D- A+ B- F C-
1.17 88% 43% 31% +12 -1 1.23 33% 1.7 .57 25% .32 81% .26 1.24 69% 17% 44% +8 +2 1.23 63% 0.8 .53 24% .29 80% .24
Dec
18		 Southern Illinois B A+ A F B 35% 19% 46% C B B A+ A C+ C+ F F B A- F A+ C- 33% 44% 23% A+ C+ C F D- A+ F A+ C-
1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12 0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22
Dec
21		 Indiana St. A- A+ C+ F A 42% 32% 26% D A- F D+ F+ A+ C- A C B C A+ D+ C+ 41% 7% 52% C C+ A+ F A+ D F A+ F
1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19 0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28
Dec
29		 Drake C A+ D- A+ A+ 25% 18% 58% C A+ D- F F F D+ C- D+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 26% 30% 44% A A+ A F+ B+ C- C A+ B-
1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19 0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19
Jan
1		 Evansville D- B- C+ D C- 36% 23% 42% C+ C- F A- F A C+ F C- A+ A- A+ B- A+ 21% 38% 40% A+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ B- B- B-
1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19 0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19
Jan
7		 Valparaiso B- A F D- C- 41% 31% 27% D C- A C- B A- A F B D- C+ D- F F 30% 38% 32% B+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F D F
1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25 1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48
Jan
10		 Illinois-Chicago F F F F F 26% 15% 58% C- F D C+ C- B+ A- B- A- A- A C A+ A+ 40% 40% 19% A+ A+ B- F F B+ A+ F A-
0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30 0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18
Jan
14		 Indiana St. A+ B+ A A+ A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A F+ A+ B A- A+ B- A+ F F D F F 46% 14% 40% B- F D+ A+ A F F D- F
1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30 1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35
Jan
17		 Bradley A+ A+ F A+ A 37% 26% 37% B- A A C B+ A+ F B+ F A A+ B+ B+ A+ 43% 30% 28% C+ A+ D+ A+ B+ B+ F C+ F
1.32 75% 29% 45% +10 -1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 12% .22 77% .17 0.93 40% 29% 31% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .22 18% .42 74% .31
Jan
21		 Northern Iowa D D C D C- 20% 20% 61% D D+ B+ B B+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% A+ A+ B F C C- C- F D
0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34 0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20
Jan
24		 Belmont D+ C- F F F+ 28% 19% 53% C F+ B- A A- D A A+ A+ B- F+ F+ F F 38% 31% 31% A+ D- A+ F A B- F+ B+ D+
0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31 1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Murray St. D D- A+ A- C+ 50% 20% 30% B B- F A+ C D+ D F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A+ A+ F B+ F+ B+ F C
1.02 48% 50% 40% 0 +1 1.04 19% 1.8 .34 17% .25 57% .14 0.94 56% 20% 16% -14 +1 0.76 18% 1.6 .29 12% .28 88% .25
Feb
3		 Southern Illinois F F+ F F F 28% 37% 35% F F F D- F+ B- F F F A+ D D+ A+ B 38% 40% 22% A B+ A A+ A+ A B- F+ C
0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11 0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21
Feb
6		 Drake B- A F A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C+ B+ D+ A- C+ C+ B F C- C+ B+ D- B- B- 33% 31% 35% B+ B- D+ A B- C C- C+ C-
1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19 1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23
Feb
9		 Evansville B+ A+ F A A 29% 20% 52% C A- F F F A+ D C- D F B F+ F F 30% 30% 40% B- F A+ F B- F D+ F F+
1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17 1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 3.3 11.3 2.9 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.9 13.6 4.2 18.7 3rd
4th 0.1 6.9 9.8 0.1 16.9 4th
5th 2.2 13.8 2.2 18.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 9.7 6.6 0.1 17.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 5.0 0.2 8.7 7th
8th 0.4 1.3 0.2 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.8 5.3 17.2 28.4 28.9 15.8 3.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 22.0% 0.8    0.1 0.6 0.2
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 3.7% 29.9% 29.9% 11.5 0.6 0.5 2.6
13-7 15.8% 23.7% 23.7% 11.8 0.9 2.7 0.2 12.0
12-8 28.9% 19.5% 19.5% 12.0 0.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 23.3
11-9 28.4% 14.7% 14.7% 12.2 0.1 3.1 1.0 0.0 24.3
10-10 17.2% 10.8% 10.8% 12.4 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.0 15.3
9-11 5.3% 5.7% 5.7% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.0
8-12 0.8% 4.0% 4.0% 14.0 0.0 0.7
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 12.1 83.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.5 52.7 47.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 0.3%