Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.1 309
Results Rating -8.5 301
Consistency 0.15 172
Pace 67.5 205
Improvement +6.1 21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 239 C- D+ D D+ C-
Defense D- 337 D- D- D C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 C 57% 194 -3.3 299
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 198 C- 37% 221 -0.1 187
Three Pointers 46% 87 C 34% 181 +2.4 97
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 245 C -0.6 190
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 206
Second Chance D 25.7% 311 C 1.05 156 D+ 0.27 273
Opponents' Steals D- 11.2% 322
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 204
Turnovers D 18.6% 299
Freethrows D+ 0.28 253 D+ 69% 281 D+ 0.19 280
Total Offense C- -2.6 239

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 57% 53 C- 11.6% 222
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 183 B 2.8% 42
Three Pointers C+ 86% 156 C 1.0% 225
Total B 61% 61 B- 4.9% 100


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 131 D- 66% 346 +4.2 318
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 255 D 42% 309 -0.3 166
Three Pointers 41% 156 C- 35% 235 +1.0 235
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 258 D- +4.3 333
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 333
Second Chance D+ 32.5% 276 D- 1.16 336 D- 0.38 327
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 242
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 336
Turnovers D 14.6% 304
Freethrows C+ 0.28 114 C- 73% 251 C+ 0.21 129
Total Defense D- -6.5 337

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 167 F+ 5.3% 353
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 36% 333 D+ 2.9% 300
Three Pointers D 88% 303 D- 0.0% 349
Total C- 58% 244 F+ 2.7% 353

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 284 16.5 35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 259 0.19 245
Consistency 0.13 239 0.13 270
Improvement +6.6 2 -0.4 210

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 319 313 304
Results Rating Rank 313 310 284
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 7% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% 7% 0%
First Round1% 4% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 410 - 910 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 130 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 10% -17  0% 0 - 1 F -26 F -11 D F F F -13 F+ F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 34 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  22% 0 - 2 F -24 F -13 F C D D -6 F+ A C-
 Sun, Nov 16 232 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 22% -8  9% 0 - 3 D- -12 F -16 F C B- B +5 F A A+
 Wed, Nov 19 182 Howard W 64 - 60 33% +10  97% 1 - 3 C -1 F+ -9 D- F F A- +8 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 358 VMI W 99 - 80 83% +9  89% 2 - 3 C -0 A+ +18 A+ B+ C+ F -17 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 157 Wright St. L 62 - 79 27% -15  7% 2 - 4 F -20 F -11 D- B- F+ F -10 F F+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 261 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 37% +3  66% 2 - 5 D+ -8 F+ -10 D+ C F B- +2 C- C+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 155 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 13% -12  5% 2 - 6 F+ -15 D+ -3 F+ C- B+ F -14 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 62 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3% -4  11% 2 - 7 D -10 F -18 F+ D- F A- +7 B+ D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 98 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 6% -15  9% 2 - 8 F -22 F -15 F F+ A F -11 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 43 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  1% 2 - 9 F -37 F -16 F D+ F+ F -23 F F D
 Thu, Jan 1 342 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 52% +0  53% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -7 D -5 B F F C -1 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 169 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 15% -13  7% 3 - 10 1 - 1 F+ -18 C +1 B C- D- F -19 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 197 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 35% +11  96% 4 - 10 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 A F B+ D+ -4 D- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 176 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 31% -7  5% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -8 F+ B- D D- -8 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 303 West Georgia W 95 - 86 60% +4  91% 5 - 11 3 - 2 C- -3 A- +10 A+ D+ F F -13 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 204 Queens L 81 - 87 36% -8  0% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D -11 C- -2 C+ D C- F+ -10 D+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 197 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 17% -5  11% 5 - 13 3 - 4 C- -4 F -10 D F F B+ +7 B A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 176 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 15% -0  54% 5 - 14 3 - 5 D+ -6 D -6 D F C C -0 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 340 @North Florida W 84 - 77 51% +6  93% 6 - 14 4 - 5 C- -2 C +1 C F A- C- -3 C F+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 342 North Alabama L 66 - 68 73% -3  10% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -18 F+ -10 F B D- F+ -8 F C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 285 @Bellarmine L 71 - 92 31% -11  5% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F -25 D -4 D+ B+ D- F -23 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 294 @Eastern Kentucky L 88 - 100 34% -0  40% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F+ -17 B +6 C+ B- C- F -23 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 293 Jacksonville W 67 - 62 57% +5  87% 7 - 17 5 - 8 D+ -6 D -6 D+ F+ C C+ +0 A D D-
 Sat, Feb 14 264 @Florida Gulf Coast L 76 - 78 27% -0  48% 7 - 18 5 - 9 C- -5 C +1 C B C D -6 D D C-
 Thu, Feb 19 169 Central Arkansas L 76 - 88 30% -15  0% 7 - 19 5 - 10 F+ -16 C+ +3 A+ B F F -19 F F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 340 North Florida W 76 - 71 73% -3  29% 8 - 19 6 - 10 D -10 D+ -4 A- F F D -6 D+ F D
 Thu, Feb 26 293 @Jacksonville L 85 - 89 34% -7  1% 8 - 20 6 - 11 D -9 A- +11 A+ F+ B+ F -20 C+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 264 Florida Gulf Coast W 78 - 63 49% +7  95% 9 - 20 7 - 11 B- +6 C +1 A+ A F B+ +6 C+ A+ F+
 Wed, Mar 4 294 Eastern Kentucky W 92 - 76 45% +15  95% 10 - 20 B- +8 A+ +15 C+ A+ A+ D -6 F B C-
 Fri, Mar 6 176 Austin Peay L 73 - 81 22%
Totals 10 - 21 7 - 11 -9 C- -3 F C C- D- -6 C D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- C C 33% 36% 46% C- C- D C D+ D D+ D+ D+ D- D- D C- D- 40% 18% 41% D+ D- D+ D- D- D C+ C- C+
1.05 57% 37% 34% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.0 .27 19% .28 69% .19 1.18 66% 42% 35% +4 0 1.12 33% 1.2 .38 15% .28 73% .21
Nov
3		 Rhode Island F F B+ D- D- 38% 15% 48% C+ D D+ F F F B+ F D+ F F F A F 40% 16% 44% C F+ F F F C- D- F+ F+
0.84 44% 43% 30% -7 +1 0.90 28% 0.6 .18 27% .41 55% .22 1.26 80% 50% 27% +6 +1 1.16 48% 1.3 .65 19% .40 79% .32
Nov
10		 Miami (FL) F A+ F F F 20% 29% 51% F+ F D A C D A+ F A D F+ F D+ F+ 52% 12% 37% D- F+ A- B+ A C- D- C D
0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24 1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27
Nov
16		 Western Carolina F F C F F 31% 29% 40% F+ F D+ B- C B- C- F+ D B D+ F F F 40% 8% 52% F F A+ C A A+ A C- A
0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21 1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15
Nov
19		 Howard F+ F D- C- D 37% 17% 46% D+ D- F A+ F F A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ F B+ C- B+
0.93 47% 29% 32% -7 0 0.88 16% 1.4 .23 23% .53 75% .40 0.88 40% 30% 25% -14 0 0.74 30% 0.8 .24 15% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 VMI A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 13% 70% D+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C+ F F+ F F D C- C- F 36% 15% 49% C- F F+ F+ F+ F B- B B
1.50 89% 57% 50% +24 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11 1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17
Nov
25		 Wright St. F F+ B- D- F+ 40% 18% 42% C+ D- C- A- B- F+ F F F F A+ F F F 39% 16% 45% D+ F D+ F F+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.96 50% 44% 29% -6 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10 1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06
Nov
29		 Southern Utah F+ B- A F D+ 36% 28% 36% D- D+ C- C+ C F F A+ D B- F A+ A+ C 52% 20% 28% D- C- A+ F C+ C- D F F
0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15 1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27
Nov
30		 Robert Morris D+ F A+ F D 24% 35% 41% F F+ F A+ C- B+ C+ C- C+ F B- F F F 27% 25% 48% B+ F C F F F C- A+ A-
1.02 45% 56% 21% -5 -3 0.87 20% 1.3 .26 13% .38 75% .28 1.31 54% 58% 48% +14 -1 1.27 36% 1.5 .54 11% .26 43% .11
Dec
2		 Grand Canyon F D+ F F F 43% 17% 40% A- F+ C- F D- F F F F A- F F A+ B 28% 24% 48% A B+ C D D+ A- F A- F+
0.68 50% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.74 24% 0.8 .18 26% .20 40% .08 1.01 77% 45% 18% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 21% .44 70% .31
Dec
6		 South Carolina F C F F F 29% 31% 40% F+ F F+ D- F+ A B+ F C+ F F F F F 26% 20% 54% B F F D F A+ A D A
0.80 57% 27% 16% -15 -2 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 11% .32 61% .19 1.29 75% 56% 44% +16 -1 1.33 45% 1.2 .55 20% .24 83% .20
Dec
22		 Oklahoma F A+ B F F 16% 34% 50% F F D- B D+ F+ D- B- D F F A- F F 45% 12% 43% F F D- F F D D A- C-
0.79 75% 41% 12% -13 -3 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 21% .22 75% .17 1.57 87% 33% 55% +26 +2 1.57 39% 1.7 .65 12% .37 68% .25
Jan
1		 North Alabama D A+ A+ F B 44% 16% 40% C B F F F F A C- A- C C- C+ A+ B+ 45% 6% 49% F B- F+ C- D- C C+ C- C
1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27 1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20
Jan
3		 Central Arkansas C B- A+ A- B+ 24% 13% 62% D+ B C+ D- C- D- A+ F+ A F F A+ D- F 40% 8% 52% F+ F F F+ F C F F F
1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26 1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32
Jan
8		 Lipscomb B A+ A+ B- A 34% 13% 53% B A F F F B+ A+ A A+ D+ D- F B+ D- 50% 12% 38% D D- A F C+ B- F B F
1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35 1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Austin Peay F+ C+ D F F+ 30% 17% 54% C- F+ C B+ B- D F F+ F D- B- F A C- 40% 31% 29% A C+ A- F F+ F F A+ D-
0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12 1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28
Jan
15		 West Georgia A- B+ F A+ A+ 51% 11% 38% B A+ D C D+ F A+ B- A+ F C+ F A- C- 41% 22% 37% F D+ F D F F C F D-
1.30 67% 20% 67% +21 +2 1.49 26% 1.0 .26 20% .48 75% .36 1.18 54% 54% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.1 .44 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
17		 Queens C- B+ F B+ C+ 43% 20% 37% C C+ C F D C- A+ F A+ F+ F F A D+ 38% 9% 54% D- D+ F+ A+ C+ F C+ D C
1.16 67% 30% 39% +5 0 1.12 34% 0.8 .29 16% .58 62% .36 1.25 81% 60% 27% +5 +1 1.14 35% 0.8 .29 10% .30 79% .24
Jan
22		 Lipscomb F D+ D- C- D 36% 28% 36% D+ D C- F F F D A+ C+ B+ D+ A B B- 41% 19% 41% B B A- A+ A+ F+ D D D-
0.92 57% 31% 33% -3 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21 0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21
Jan
23		 Austin Peay D B C- F+ D 32% 23% 45% D- D D F F C B+ C B C F D+ A+ C 33% 31% 37% A+ C+ F+ F F B- C+ C- C+
0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25 1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 North Florida C D+ C B C- 43% 13% 44% C+ C D+ F F A- B F+ C C- F+ C A+ B- 44% 10% 46% F+ C D+ F F+ D D- D F+
1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21 1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Alabama F+ B+ F F F 46% 22% 33% D+ F C A B D- B- A+ A- F+ F B+ B- F 40% 16% 44% C F C+ D C- C- D C+ D+
1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27 1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23
Feb
5		 Bellarmine D A+ A C- C- 13% 18% 69% D- D+ D- A+ B+ D- D D+ D F F+ D+ F F 44% 10% 46% D+ F F F F F A+ F+ A+
1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20 1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11
Feb
7		 Eastern Kentucky B F A+ A+ C+ 39% 18% 43% C+ C+ C- A- B- C- C A+ B+ F F F B- F 35% 15% 51% F F D- F F F F F F
1.25 47% 56% 48% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.2 .38 16% .34 85% .29 1.42 68% 75% 32% +8 +1 1.18 37% 1.5 .53 10% .41 85% .35
Feb
11		 Jacksonville D F B+ A C- 35% 23% 43% D D+ D- F+ F+ C A+ F A C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 25% 33% C+ A F C+ D D- F+ D+ F+
1.07 50% 44% 41% +3 0 1.08 24% 0.8 .18 14% .60 56% .34 0.99 65% 17% 13% -13 0 0.75 37% 1.0 .37 14% .35 74% .26
Feb
14		 Florida Gulf Coast C F A+ A+ C- 52% 15% 33% B C D A+ B C F B- F D C- B+ F+ D+ 43% 21% 36% F+ D C- D- D C- A B- A
1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18 1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12
Feb
19		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F A+ A+ 20% 22% 59% F A+ D- A+ B F F A+ F F F F D- F 31% 15% 54% C F F B+ F+ C- F D- F
1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14 1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
21		 North Florida D+ A F A+ A 31% 13% 56% C- A- B- F F F D+ F F D B+ F C- D 33% 20% 47% B+ D+ F F+ F D C- A+ B-
1.19 73% 17% 44% +11 +1 1.25 40% 0.6 .26 19% .25 54% .13 1.11 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.3 .41 16% .26 64% .17
Feb
26		 Jacksonville A- A+ A+ C A 57% 7% 37% A A+ D- F F+ B+ A D+ B+ F B+ A F C+ 56% 23% 21% D- C+ F F F F F F F
1.26 77% 67% 35% +13 +3 1.35 23% 0.7 .17 12% .46 67% .30 1.32 48% 27% 40% -6 +1 0.92 45% 1.4 .65 9% .51 97% .49
Feb
28		 Florida Gulf Coast C D A+ A+ A+ 46% 17% 37% C+ A+ C- A+ A F F F F B+ C- A B+ B- 48% 19% 33% F C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C- D+ D+
1.15 52% 63% 53% +12 +1 1.28 28% 1.7 .48 24% .27 64% .17 0.93 60% 30% 29% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.3 .06 13% .27 75% .20
Mar
4		 Eastern Kentucky A+ C C+ A C+ 34% 17% 49% C+ C+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ B C- D C- B F F 35% 13% 52% F F A+ F B C- D+ D D
1.40 61% 44% 42% +8 0 1.19 32% 1.8 .58 9% .30 78% .23 1.16 59% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.3 .29 17% .29 75% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 1.5 98.6
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.4%
Lose Out 80.1%