Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.7 30
Expected Predictive Rating +12.7 46
Pace 68.2 200
Improvement +2.7 73

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A #10 B A+ B- A C+
Defense B- #87 B- A- D+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 139 67% 30 +4.4 43
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 198 46% 23 +1.1 116
Three Pointers 40% 199 34% 182 -0.3 188
1st FG Attempt 1.12 47 +5.2 47
Second Chance 38.8% 14 1.23 11 0.48 5
Turnovers 15.1% 72
Freethrows 0.40 4 75% 76 0.30 4
Total Offense +11.5 10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 200 53% 65 +2.0 110
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 27 33% 31 -1.2 280
Three Pointers 35% 340 36% 257 +2.4 85
1st FG Attempt 0.96 75 +3.1 74
Second Chance 24.4% 16 0.93 50 0.23 18
Turnovers 15.4% 275
Freethrows 0.33 265 71% 125 0.24 247
Total Defense +3.1 87

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 156 -0.9 47
Shot Type Accuracy +4.8 44 -2.2 92
Possession Length 16.9 130 18.1 301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 21 0.12 34
Improvement +1.9 #89 +0.8 #135

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 1% 2% 0%
Top 6 Seed 10% 15% 5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75% 86% 64%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75% 86% 63%
Average Seed 8.5 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 97% 99% 94%
.500 or above in Conference 75% 90% 60%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four12% 8% 16%
First Round70% 83% 57%
Second Round38% 47% 30%
Sweet Sixteen10% 13% 8%
Elite Eight4% 5% 3%
Final Four1% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 10
Quad 23 - 39 - 12
Quad 32 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 3 Duke L 60 - 75 20% -5  22% 0 - 1 B +9 C -0 F+ A F+ A- +8 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 319 Lafayette W 97 - 60 99% +18  99% 1 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +19 C+ A+ B- B +6 B+ D- A
 Wed, Nov 12 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  87% 2 - 1 A +21 B +7 B- B B+ A+ +13 A- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 357 UMKC W 71 - 55 99% +11  97% 3 - 1 C- -2 D+ -2 F C A+ B- +2 A B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 354 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  99% 4 - 1 A- +17 B+ +8 A F A B+ +7 B- A- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 69 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 73% +2  77% 4 - 2 B- +7 B+ +8 A A+ F C -0 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 27 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 47% +4  81% 5 - 2 A +20 A+ +30 A+ A+ A+ F+ -9 C D F+
 Wed, Dec 3 23 Virginia L 69 - 88 55% -16  8% 5 - 3 D+ -6 B- +5 C- A+ A+ F -12 D B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 264 Southern W 95 - 69 98% +17  94% 6 - 3 A- +17 A +14 A- A+ C+ B- +3 D A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 7 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 19% -6  5% 6 - 4 A- +16 C+ +3 C- A B- A +12 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 303 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  99% 7 - 4 A+ +31 B+ +9 B- A+ D- A+ +20 A+ B D
 Mon, Dec 22 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  100% 8 - 4 B- +8 A +13 A+ D+ B+ D -6 D- C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 79 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 84% -1  24% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C +1 A +11 B+ A+ B F+ -10 C+ F D
 Tue, Jan 6 18 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 27% -11  4% 8 - 6 0 - 2 B- +7 A- +10 C+ A+ F C- -3 D- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 17 @Alabama W 92 - 88 27% +5  86% 9 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +21 A- A+ A B +4 B- A D
 Wed, Jan 14 14 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 46% +6  88% 10 - 6 2 - 2 A+ +32 A+ +15 A+ A D- A+ +17 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 31 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 62% -3  28% 10 - 7 2 - 3 B- +8 B+ +7 C D A+ C -0 C+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 24 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 33% -3  18% 10 - 8 2 - 4 B+ +14 A+ +15 C A+ A+ C -1 B A D
 Sat, Jan 24 36 Georgia W 87 - 67 63% +3  46% 11 - 8 3 - 4 A+ +31 A+ +22 A+ A+ B- A +11 A B A
 Wed, Jan 28 28 @Auburn L 82 - 88 37% +3  66% 11 - 9 3 - 5 B+ +12 A+ +20 A+ B- B D- -9 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 54 @Oklahoma W 79 - 69 56% -4  16% 12 - 9 4 - 5 A+ +23 A- +11 A+ B- F A +13 A+ C+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 90 South Carolina W 84 - 75 87% +1  53% 13 - 9 5 - 5 B+ +11 A +12 C- A+ C- C -0 B- B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 65 Mississippi W 79 - 68 81% +6  76% 14 - 9 6 - 5 A- +16 A+ +15 B- A+ B B- +3 B+ A- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 48 @Missouri W 80 - 79 50%
 Tue, Feb 17 57 LSU W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 36 @Georgia L 84 - 87 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 4 Florida L 77 - 83 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 31 @Texas A&M L 82 - 85 39%
 Wed, Mar 4 19 @Arkansas L 82 - 88 28%
 Sat, Mar 7 54 Oklahoma W 85 - 77 76%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 +15 A +12 B A+ B- B- +3 B- A- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B+ A- C B+ 40% 19% 40% C+ B A- A A+ B- A B A B- B B+ D+ B- 38% 27% 35% B B- A- B A- D+ D+ C+ C-
1.25 67% 46% 34% +5 0 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 15% .40 75% .30 1.04 53% 33% 36% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .23 15% .33 71% .28
Nov
4		 Duke C F F B F+ 40% 29% 31% C F+ A+ C+ A F+ A+ B A+ A- B A+ F A 46% 13% 41% B A A A+ A+ C- F C- F
0.90 33% 23% 36% -13 -1 0.73 41% 0.8 .32 24% .45 74% .34 1.13 57% 0% 42% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .24 15% .53 73% .39
Nov
8		 Lafayette A+ B B+ C- C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ B A C B B 38% 26% 36% A- B+ C- F D- A D+ B C-
1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37 0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20
Nov
12		 Fairleigh Dickinson B A+ A+ F C+ 50% 10% 40% A B- A D B B+ A+ F B+ A+ A+ C- B A 41% 17% 41% D A- A+ A+ A+ F A- A A-
1.27 81% 60% 24% +7 +2 1.21 39% 0.9 .34 12% .53 56% .30 0.79 38% 40% 29% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.3 .06 12% .20 62% .12
Nov
15		 UMKC D+ C F F F 47% 12% 41% B F A- F+ C A+ A+ F A+ B- B D+ A+ A- 29% 48% 23% A+ A B B- B- F A+ F+ A
1.13 61% 17% 15% -13 +2 0.80 44% 0.8 .37 8% .48 61% .29 0.87 50% 41% 8% -10 -4 0.73 24% 0.8 .20 10% .14 75% .11
Nov
18		 Rider B+ A+ A+ C+ A 39% 9% 53% C A F C- F A A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- C- C+ 25% 43% 32% A+ B- A+ C+ A- D+ C- F F
1.32 82% 60% 37% +13 +2 1.32 18% 1.0 .18 8% .49 65% .32 0.87 36% 33% 33% -8 -4 0.79 21% 0.9 .19 16% .29 89% .25
Nov
24		 Arizona St. B+ A+ F F A- 57% 11% 33% A+ A A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C C- A+ F D+ 39% 24% 37% B- C- A+ F B C- F D+ F
1.15 81% 0% 27% +5 +3 1.17 41% 1.5 .63 25% .48 74% .36 1.16 61% 9% 53% +5 0 1.11 21% 1.7 .34 15% .56 78% .44
Nov
26		 North Carolina St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 26% 11% 64% C A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F+ A+ F C- 44% 25% 31% B+ C B+ F D F+ F B+ F+
1.42 67% 60% 47% +17 0 1.36 23% 2.0 .46 10% .51 85% .43 1.35 71% 21% 47% +7 0 1.16 24% 1.8 .42 8% .42 71% .30
Dec
3		 Virginia B- C+ F F D+ 44% 22% 34% B+ C- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ F D+ A+ F D- 40% 15% 46% C+ D A+ F B- F F B- F
1.06 55% 27% 24% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 11% .43 68% .29 1.35 63% 29% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.7 .41 11% .50 69% .34
Dec
8		 Southern A B+ B A+ A- 42% 16% 42% B A- B A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- C B F D- 46% 32% 22% C- D C A+ A+ B F B F+
1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50 0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28
Dec
12		 Connecticut C+ F C D- C- 44% 31% 24% D+ C- A+ B- A B- A+ D A+ A F D+ D D- 43% 28% 28% A D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A
0.95 40% 36% 27% -11 -1 0.78 37% 1.0 .37 18% .52 68% .35 1.07 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 28% 1.0 .28 23% .25 54% .14
Dec
16		 Le Moyne B+ B- A+ D- C+ 41% 6% 54% A- B- A+ B A+ D- B+ C B A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 29% 38% 33% A+ A+ B B+ B D D D+ D
1.29 59% 100% 31% +2 +2 1.09 49% 1.2 .57 18% .38 74% .28 0.72 40% 30% 12% -19 -3 0.58 22% 0.9 .20 18% .38 74% .28
Dec
22		 Maryland Eastern Shore A A A+ B A+ 43% 17% 40% C+ A+ A F D+ B+ A+ C A+ D C+ C- D- D 50% 21% 29% F D- A F C- D- F C+ F
1.33 70% 63% 37% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.8 .31 13% .68 74% .50 1.01 54% 40% 36% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.3 .28 20% .37 71% .27
Jan
3		 Mississippi St. A A+ B+ F A- 28% 32% 40% C- B+ B A+ A+ B A+ C- A+ F+ C- B+ C- C+ 32% 20% 48% C C+ F D F D F D- F
1.19 81% 44% 22% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.4 .43 12% .55 73% .40 1.23 63% 33% 34% +1 0 1.03 41% 1.1 .46 13% .43 74% .32
Jan
6		 Tennessee A- F A+ B C 34% 14% 52% B C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F D- 50% 18% 32% D+ D- D+ C+ C C+ F D+ F
1.06 33% 50% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 1.4 .57 24% .39 80% .31 1.27 73% 25% 43% +9 +1 1.23 48% 1.0 .48 19% .54 72% .39
Jan
10		 Alabama A+ D+ F+ A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A- A+ A- A+ A A+ B- A+ B A+ A F B- 41% 17% 43% B- B- B A+ A D F A- D
1.29 50% 29% 45% +2 -1 1.04 42% 1.1 .47 10% .50 69% .34 1.23 45% 33% 48% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 10% .42 70% .29
Jan
14		 Vanderbilt A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% B- A+ A+ D+ A D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A F A 27% 33% 40% A+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A- B+ A
1.21 63% 60% 44% +13 0 1.26 44% 0.9 .40 23% .43 86% .37 0.97 43% 29% 43% -1 -2 0.94 24% 0.4 .10 15% .27 73% .20
Jan
17		 Texas A&M B+ B+ C D- C 30% 28% 43% D C B- F D A+ A+ B+ A+ C B F D B 55% 6% 38% F+ C+ A+ F B F C- A+ B
1.13 64% 38% 30% 0 -2 0.98 31% 0.6 .20 13% .48 77% .37 1.19 54% 67% 39% +2 +3 1.13 19% 1.5 .28 10% .34 63% .21
Jan
21		 Kentucky A+ A+ B F C+ 41% 31% 28% C C A A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C C F B C+ 27% 40% 33% A+ B D+ A+ A D F F F
1.16 73% 41% 7% -4 -1 0.91 36% 1.2 .44 12% .33 90% .29 1.23 62% 47% 31% +3 -3 1.02 38% 0.8 .32 12% .57 86% .49
Jan
24		 Georgia A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 33% 35% 31% F A+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ B+ C A C- A+ B+ A 43% 18% 39% B- A B B- B A F A F
1.32 82% 56% 31% +13 -2 1.24 44% 1.4 .60 18% .22 75% .17 1.02 63% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .47 68% .32
Jan
28		 Auburn A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% C+ A+ C+ B+ B- B A+ B A+ D- B F F F 39% 12% 49% C F A+ B- A+ F F C+ F
1.29 57% 71% 46% +14 0 1.31 29% 1.1 .33 17% .44 78% .34 1.38 56% 60% 50% +14 +1 1.32 24% 1.0 .24 5% .64 74% .48
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Oklahoma A- A+ A+ B- A+ 37% 22% 41% B- A+ F+ A+ B- F C C C A A+ F+ A A+ 25% 27% 48% A+ A+ A F C+ C B- A+ A-
1.18 82% 60% 37% +16 0 1.33 22% 1.6 .35 21% .28 73% .21 1.03 38% 50% 28% -6 -2 0.87 27% 1.6 .43 13% .28 63% .17
Feb
3		 South Carolina A C+ F+ C+ C 32% 30% 38% D C- A+ A A+ C- A+ A+ A+ C F A+ A+ B- 51% 29% 20% C+ B- A+ D- B+ C F C F+
1.23 60% 29% 33% -2 -2 0.94 47% 1.2 .56 16% .63 81% .51 1.10 80% 21% 10% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 15% .41 79% .33
Feb
7		 Mississippi A+ C A+ F B+ 34% 39% 27% F+ B- B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B- B+ F A+ B+ 17% 38% 44% B+ B+ A- B A- D- C C- C
1.24 53% 53% 25% +1 -3 0.98 33% 2.2 .74 16% .43 87% .37 1.07 56% 50% 26% -1 -4 0.92 25% 1.0 .25 9% .30 76% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.4 0.3 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 0.2 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.8 5.9 0.8 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 5.2 5.0 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 11.3 1.5 14.5 7th
8th 0.4 8.6 7.8 0.1 16.9 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 11.3 1.7 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 7.7 5.5 0.1 14.4 10th
11th 0.4 4.6 6.1 1.0 12.0 11th
12th 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.0 6.3 17.4 28.1 26.9 14.9 4.9 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 11.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.9% 99.6% 5.7% 93.9% 6.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6%
11-7 14.9% 98.9% 5.0% 93.9% 7.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.3 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.2 98.8%
10-8 26.9% 94.3% 1.8% 92.5% 8.3 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.9 8.2 6.7 3.4 0.5 1.5 94.2%
9-9 28.1% 78.3% 1.9% 76.4% 9.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.7 7.0 6.3 0.0 6.1 77.9%
8-10 17.4% 40.8% 0.7% 40.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 5.0 0.3 10.3 40.4%
7-11 6.3% 8.5% 0.3% 8.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 5.8 8.2%
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 75.2% 2.3% 72.9% 8.5 24.8 74.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%