Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#33
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#48
Pace68.1#205
Improvement+0.6#142

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#50
First Shot+8.1#17
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#311
Layup/Dunks+3.9#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#107
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement+0.4#146

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#26
First Shot+4.8#45
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#51
Layups/Dunks+3.6#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#248
Freethrows+2.5#42
Improvement+0.2#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 10.6% 10.6% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 26.2% 26.3% 7.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.9% 64.0% 45.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.4% 63.5% 45.1%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.4
.500 or above 90.5% 90.6% 71.8%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 43.9% 28.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 7.3% 13.2%
First Four6.3% 6.3% 8.5%
First Round60.9% 61.0% 41.0%
Second Round37.7% 37.8% 20.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.1% 15.2% 3.8%
Elite Eight6.0% 6.0% 1.7%
Final Four2.3% 2.3% 0.9%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 11
Quad 24 - 111 - 13
Quad 31 - 012 - 13
Quad 48 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 39   Ohio St. L 72-80 52%     0 - 1 +3.8 +3.7 +0.1
  Nov 08, 2024 356   Houston Christian W 90-59 99%     1 - 1 +14.9 +11.7 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +29.8 +15.8 +9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.7%    3 - 1 +21.8 +14.8 +11.2
  Nov 21, 2024 97   Syracuse W 70-66 75%     4 - 1 +9.4 +0.8 +8.7
  Nov 22, 2024 103   Saint Joseph's W 67-58 76%     5 - 1 +13.9 -0.5 +14.7
  Nov 29, 2024 341   Delaware St. W 90-68 98%     6 - 1 +7.7 +5.9 +0.4
  Dec 04, 2024 79   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 59%     7 - 1 +14.1 +6.7 +8.1
  Dec 08, 2024 9   Connecticut L 65-76 42%     7 - 2 +3.5 +2.9 -0.7
  Dec 12, 2024 199   New Mexico St. W 91-67 94%     8 - 2 +19.2 +17.4 +2.0
  Dec 15, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 121-57 99%     9 - 2 +43.8 +25.1 +13.4
  Dec 19, 2024 346   New Orleans W 87-60 99.5%   
  Dec 29, 2024 296   Northwestern St. W 79-57 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 24   @ Texas A&M L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 07, 2025 1   Auburn L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 4   Tennessee L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 15, 2025 37   @ Oklahoma L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 8   @ Florida L 72-81 22%    
  Jan 21, 2025 51   Missouri W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 24   Texas A&M W 70-69 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 60   @ LSU W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 29   Arkansas W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 7   Alabama L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 11   Kentucky L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 73-76 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 40   Georgia W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 71-75 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 37   Oklahoma W 73-70 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 3.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.4 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.3 2.7 0.3 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.1 2.1 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.6 4.1 0.4 8.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 5.0 1.4 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.8 0.2 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.3 0.1 5.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.2 8.0 11.2 13.3 14.2 13.3 11.1 8.3 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 92.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 63.8% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.5% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 2.8 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.2% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 3.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.6% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 8.3% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.1% 99.5% 1.6% 97.9% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 13.3% 96.8% 1.0% 95.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.4 3.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.4 96.8%
8-10 14.2% 83.8% 0.5% 83.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 3.4 3.1 1.4 0.0 2.3 83.8%
7-11 13.3% 49.9% 0.2% 49.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 0.3 6.7 49.8%
6-12 11.2% 16.8% 0.1% 16.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.3 9.3 16.7%
5-13 8.0% 1.7% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.8 1.7%
4-14 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 5.2 0.0%
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 63.9% 1.4% 62.6% 7.1 0.5 1.4 3.4 5.4 7.4 8.3 9.3 8.7 7.1 6.0 6.1 0.6 36.1 63.4%