Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#38
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#50
Pace68.0#200
Improvement+0.7#149

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#44
First Shot+8.4#15
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#303
Layup/Dunks+2.1#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#62
Freethrows+0.0#170
Improvement+0.8#131

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#47
First Shot+4.0#60
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#53
Layups/Dunks+2.7#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#221
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.7% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 10.4% 14.1% 5.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.7% 61.3% 39.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.5% 61.1% 38.8%
Average Seed 8.3 8.1 8.7
.500 or above 90.8% 95.7% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 37.1% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 2.7% 8.4%
First Four9.1% 8.9% 9.2%
First Round47.6% 57.1% 35.1%
Second Round25.9% 32.0% 17.9%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 9.8% 5.3%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.5% 1.8%
Final Four0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 12
Quad 24 - 29 - 14
Quad 32 - 012 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 36   Ohio St. L 72-80 48%     0 - 1 +4.6 +4.8 -0.2
  Nov 08, 2024 316   Houston Christian W 90-59 98%     1 - 1 +19.4 +15.3 +5.4
  Nov 12, 2024 357   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +30.1 +17.4 +8.2
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.8%    3 - 1 +18.0 +12.1 +10.2
  Nov 21, 2024 103   Syracuse W 70-66 78%     4 - 1 +8.0 +1.7 +6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 90   Saint Joseph's W 67-58 71%     5 - 1 +15.3 +0.1 +15.4
  Nov 29, 2024 321   Delaware St. W 90-68 98%     6 - 1 +9.9 +5.7 +2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 93   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 62%     7 - 1 +12.8 +5.3 +8.2
  Dec 08, 2024 24   Connecticut L 65-76 49%     7 - 2 +1.3 +1.0 -1.0
  Dec 12, 2024 128   New Mexico St. W 91-67 88%     8 - 2 +23.5 +19.6 +4.1
  Dec 15, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 121-57 99%     9 - 2 +42.8 +24.9 +12.6
  Dec 19, 2024 343   New Orleans W 98-62 98%     10 - 2 +21.5 +17.7 +4.0
  Dec 29, 2024 289   Northwestern St. W 77-53 97%     11 - 2 +14.0 +13.9 +4.7
  Jan 04, 2025 21   @ Texas A&M L 60-80 28%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -1.9 -1.5 -0.9
  Jan 07, 2025 2   Auburn L 82-87 22%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +15.3 +13.8 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 8   Tennessee L 70-74 35%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +12.0 +16.2 -4.7
  Jan 15, 2025 45   @ Oklahoma W 77-73 43%     12 - 5 1 - 3 +18.0 +5.1 +12.6
  Jan 18, 2025 5   @ Florida L 60-84 15%     12 - 6 1 - 4 -0.8 -2.6 +1.6
  Jan 21, 2025 29   Missouri W 75-74 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 21   Texas A&M L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 19   @ Mississippi L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 63   @ LSU W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 46   Arkansas W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 48   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 44%    
  Feb 11, 2025 7   Alabama L 80-85 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 15   Kentucky L 81-83 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 82   @ South Carolina W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 46   @ Arkansas L 72-74 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 34   Georgia W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 04, 2025 23   @ Mississippi St. L 71-77 29%    
  Mar 08, 2025 45   Oklahoma W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 1.6 0.2 3.0 5th
6th 0.8 2.9 0.8 4.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 2.7 0.2 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.7 5.4 3.9 0.2 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.3 4.5 6.7 1.1 0.0 12.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.7 7.7 2.5 0.1 13.1 11th
12th 0.0 1.4 6.3 4.9 0.3 13.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.1 0.8 0.0 11.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.1 1.2 0.0 8.2 14th
15th 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.1 0.1 5.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.8 2.3 6.3 11.2 15.7 18.7 17.1 13.8 8.3 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.5% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-7 4.0% 99.7% 2.5% 97.2% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 8.3% 98.5% 0.8% 97.7% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 98.5%
9-9 13.8% 95.1% 0.4% 94.7% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.7 95.1%
8-10 17.1% 79.4% 0.4% 79.0% 9.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.8 3.8 4.0 1.7 0.0 3.5 79.3%
7-11 18.7% 46.1% 0.3% 45.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.4 4.2 0.5 10.1 46.0%
6-12 15.7% 14.6% 0.1% 14.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.4 13.4 14.5%
5-13 11.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.1 1.5%
4-14 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 6.3 0.2%
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 51.7% 0.5% 51.2% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.5 8.0 9.2 7.8 7.7 7.7 0.9 48.3 51.5%