UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.8 246
Results Rating -5.4 249
Consistency 0.14 106
Pace 63.6 311
Improvement -2.2 262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 248 C- C- C- C F
Defense C- 230 D+ C+ C- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 356 C- 57% 199 -5.7 347
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 22 B- 42% 63 +7.2 3
Three Pointers 34% 308 C+ 35% 145 -2.9 277
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.6 364 C+ +1.4 120
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 218
Second Chance C 29.6% 198 C- 0.98 263 C- 0.29 224
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 121
Other Turnovers D 8.4% 315
Turnovers C- 17.3% 223
Freethrows C+ 0.32 123 D 68% 314 C 0.22 178
Total Offense C- -2.8 248

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 39% 314 C+ 10.2% 130
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 313 C- 5.6% 235
Three Pointers B+ 91% 29 B- 0.6% 104
Total F+ 45% 348 C+ 5.2% 137


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 C 58% 177 +2.8 280
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 251 D- 43% 335 +0.0 192
Three Pointers 38% 261 C- 35% 228 -0.8 147
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 286 C- +1.3 235
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 247
Second Chance C- 30.9% 213 B 0.94 54 C+ 0.29 117
Turnovers from Steals D+ 7.9% 296
Other Turnovers B- 7.9% 93
Turnovers C- 15.8% 235
Freethrows C- 0.32 219 A- 69% 18 C 0.22 176
Total Defense C- -2.0 230

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 151 C 11.7% 142
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 142 C- 4.3% 209
Three Pointers D- 90% 336 C 0.8% 170
Total C 55% 183 C+ 6.2% 133

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 341 17.1 151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 276 0.19 239
Consistency 0.12 150 0.11 54
Improvement -0.8 231 -1.4 259

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 257 245 224
Results Rating Rank 266 243 231
Conference Record 8 - 8 8 - 8 8 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 5% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 5% 0%
First Round1% 3% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 411 - 712 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 92 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 10% -4  10% 0 - 1 D+ -8 F+ -10 F+ A+ F C+ +1 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 257 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 41% +1  56% 0 - 2 D+ -5 C -0 B- B+ F D+ -5 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 197 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 51% +4  84% 1 - 2 C -0 D+ -3 B- B+ F B- +3 A D+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 232 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 35% -1  21% 1 - 3 D+ -8 C +1 B+ F D F+ -10 C- C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 199 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 51% +3  71% 1 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 A+ D- F B- +2 C+ D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 172 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 47% +8  95% 2 - 4 B- +8 D+ -3 D A+ F A+ +12 B B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 297 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 63% +0  41% 3 - 4 C- -3 B +6 C+ B B- F+ -9 F C- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 36 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  24% 3 - 5 B- +5 D+ -4 D C C- A +9 A- F+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 91 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 22% -6  26% 3 - 6 C +0 C+ +3 B+ C- B C- -3 C- A F
 Sat, Dec 13 111 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 31% -13  7% 3 - 7 F -21 F -15 F+ C- F D- -7 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 116 @UAB L 47 - 72 16% -13  10% 3 - 8 F -19 F -20 F F F+ C -1 D+ B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 94 High Point L 69 - 87 23% -11  3% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -15 D -4 F+ C+ A+ F -11 F D B
 Sat, Jan 3 250 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 39% -6  0% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D+ -5 B- +4 F A+ C+ F+ -9 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 253 Longwood W 72 - 61 63% +6  98% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C+ +3 C +1 C D+ B+ B- +3 B- A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 243 @Radford W 91 - 72 38% +9  98% 5 - 10 2 - 2 A- +17 A- +10 A+ F C B+ +7 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 271 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 43% -6  9% 5 - 11 2 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 F C- C C- -3 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 145 Winthrop L 67 - 69 39% -6  3% 5 - 12 2 - 4 C- -4 F -10 F D- B B+ +6 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 307 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 54% +6  93% 6 - 12 3 - 4 B +8 A +12 A D- B C- -3 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 360 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 92% +12  95% 7 - 12 4 - 4 C- -2 D -4 C F+ C B+ +6 B C- B
 Sat, Jan 31 145 @Winthrop L 71 - 84 20% -7  0% 7 - 13 4 - 5 D -9 C+ +2 C- F A F -12 F D- A-
 Wed, Feb 4 307 South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 67 75% +0  46% 8 - 13 5 - 5 C- -3 C +1 A D D C- -3 C- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 253 @Longwood W 79 - 74 40% +0  43% 9 - 13 6 - 5 C+ +3 B +7 C B+ A+ D+ -4 F+ C F
 Sat, Feb 14 271 Presbyterian L 57 - 58 66% +2  79% 9 - 14 6 - 6 D -10 F -16 D- F C- B+ +5 B D B-
 Thu, Feb 19 94 @High Point L 48 - 74 11% -13  1% 9 - 15 6 - 7 F+ -17 F -21 F F+ F+ B- +2 B B- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 243 Radford W 74 - 73 OT 61% +1  57% 10 - 15 7 - 7 D+ -7 D- -7 D+ F+ A+ C+ +0 B- B C-
 Thu, Feb 26 360 @Gardner-Webb W 77 - 71 82% +1  53% 11 - 15 8 - 7 D -9 B- +5 C- A+ C- F -13 D- D F
 Sat, Feb 28 250 Charleston Southern L 75 - 92 62% -3  35% 11 - 16 8 - 8 F -25 D -5 C+ C C- F -20 F A- B
 Fri, Mar 6 253 Longwood W 72 - 71 52%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 8 -5 C- -3 F C+ F C- -2 C+ D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- C+ C+ 29% 58% 34% F C- C C- C- C- C+ D C C- C D- C- C- 43% 18% 38% D+ D+ C- B C+ C- C- A- C
1.05 57% 42% 35% +1 -3 0.99 30% 1.0 .29 17% .32 68% .22 1.11 58% 43% 35% +1 +1 1.06 31% 0.9 .29 16% .32 69% .22
Nov
4		 Wichita St. F+ F C D- D+ 13% 58% 29% F F+ B- A+ A+ F D+ F D- C+ A+ F B- A- 45% 29% 27% C+ B+ F F F A+ B A A-
0.86 33% 39% 29% -5 -7 0.79 31% 1.5 .47 24% .25 62% .15 1.11 36% 50% 31% -8 -1 0.86 51% 1.3 .66 21% .28 60% .17
Nov
8		 Georgia Southern C C+ A+ F B+ 40% 37% 23% F B- D+ A+ B+ F C+ A B D+ B- F C+ D- 47% 14% 39% C- D- C- A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.12 62% 63% 25% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.4 .45 22% .38 83% .32 1.16 52% 75% 32% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 11% .55 72% .39
Nov
11		 Lipscomb D+ B- A+ B A- 26% 37% 37% F B- C A+ B+ F A+ F A+ B- B- F A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% C- A F A+ D+ C- D- C+ D
1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30 0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20
Nov
19		 Western Carolina C A B A+ A+ 15% 43% 43% F B+ D+ F F D A+ F C- F+ D+ D- A+ C- 49% 24% 27% C- C- F A+ C- F F F F
1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22 1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41
Nov
25		 Tennessee St. F+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 43% 22% F A+ D+ F D- F A+ F A+ B- B- D- A+ B- 49% 26% 25% F+ C+ F+ C- D- A- C- C- C-
0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36 1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22
Nov
30		 Appalachian St. D+ A A+ F C- 29% 29% 41% F+ D B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ B- 21% 30% 49% A+ B A+ D- B+ C B A+ A
1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43 0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13
Dec
2		 UNC Greensboro B D- A+ A+ B 35% 35% 31% F C+ D+ A+ B B- A+ C- A F+ F D+ F F 31% 22% 47% C F C+ F+ C- B- D+ D+ D
1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26 1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28
Dec
6		 North Carolina St. D+ F D A C 13% 46% 42% F D D+ B+ C C- C+ A B A F+ B A+ A 48% 12% 40% D A- B- F F+ A B+ D B
0.93 33% 32% 40% -2 -5 0.88 24% 1.1 .26 21% .32 76% .24 1.11 71% 33% 20% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.7 .47 18% .27 80% .22
Dec
10		 Miami (OH) C+ B B+ A+ A 29% 34% 36% F B+ F A+ C- B B+ B- A- C- F+ C+ D C- 36% 22% 41% B C- A+ D- A F C C C
1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26 1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Thomas F C- D F D- 40% 32% 28% F F+ C D+ C- F C- F D- D- C+ A+ F C- 57% 10% 33% D- D+ F A+ C- D+ F A+ D+
0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16 1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22
Dec
21		 UAB F F A- F D+ 18% 55% 27% F F D- F F F+ F+ F+ F+ C C+ A+ C- C 62% 15% 23% F D+ C A+ B+ F+ C B+ B-
0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12 1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20
Dec
31		 High Point D A+ F F D 32% 38% 30% F F+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F B F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% B F A+ F D B F B- F
1.03 81% 26% 20% -3 -3 0.90 24% 1.5 .36 12% .41 63% .25 1.30 82% 25% 50% +17 0 1.37 19% 2.3 .43 16% .47 73% .34
Jan
3		 Charleston Southern B- F C F F 42% 32% 26% D+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ F+ F F D- F 53% 9% 38% F+ F F D F A- F A+ F
1.15 33% 38% 23% -15 -1 0.70 44% 1.3 .58 11% .61 69% .42 1.19 72% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.30 42% 1.0 .42 22% .52 52% .27
Jan
7		 Longwood C C D A+ B- 35% 26% 39% F+ C A+ F D+ B+ B F C B- C- A+ B B 42% 17% 42% D- B- A A- A F+ D A+ C
1.13 63% 33% 44% +6 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24 0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24
Jan
10		 Radford A- A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% F A+ D F F C A+ F A- B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% F A A A A F F C F
1.24 80% 40% 52% +18 -2 1.35 28% 0.7 .19 18% .48 62% .30 0.98 67% 25% 13% -12 +2 0.83 21% 0.8 .17 10% .48 72% .35
Jan
14		 Presbyterian C- F F A+ F+ 34% 40% 26% F F C+ D C- C A+ A+ A+ C- A- F F F 53% 28% 19% D+ F B A- B+ C+ F A+ D
1.07 44% 21% 50% -6 -3 0.85 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 83% .36 1.08 48% 58% 63% +8 0 1.19 29% 0.9 .25 20% .51 52% .27
Jan
17		 Winthrop F F A- F F 23% 35% 42% F F C+ F D- B A C- A- B+ A+ F D+ A 43% 2% 54% F A- C+ A B+ A+ F F+ F
0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30 0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44
Jan
21		 South Carolina Upstate A C+ F+ A+ A+ 45% 29% 27% D- A D+ F+ D- B A A- A+ C- B+ F D F+ 52% 12% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A-
1.24 59% 29% 62% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.0 .28 13% .38 77% .29 1.03 48% 83% 37% +2 +2 1.10 27% 0.4 .11 12% .26 53% .14
Jan
29		 Gardner-Webb D A- F A+ C+ 26% 24% 50% F C C+ F F+ C A+ F B+ B+ B+ F A+ A- 53% 6% 40% F B C- C C- B A+ A+ A+
1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26 0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09
Jan
31		 Winthrop C+ B- A+ F C+ 28% 32% 40% F C- C- F F A A A+ A+ F B+ F F F 33% 4% 62% D+ F D- C- D- A- F F F
1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35 1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 South Carolina Upstate C A+ C B+ A+ 32% 23% 45% D- A D- C- D D B F C C- F+ B+ B D+ 40% 24% 36% C+ C- B- A+ A+ F C- B+ C+
1.13 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 25% 1.1 .29 18% .34 63% .22 0.99 64% 31% 30% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.3 .08 13% .29 65% .19
Feb
12		 Longwood B D- B A+ B- 37% 33% 31% F C B B B+ A+ C- B+ C+ D+ F B- D+ F 35% 18% 47% D+ F+ F A C F D- A+ C+
1.17 56% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.12 34% 1.0 .34 12% .34 75% .25 1.10 71% 33% 35% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.8 .31 15% .38 59% .23
Feb
14		 Presbyterian F F+ A+ F D 46% 30% 24% D- D- D+ F F C- F C- F B+ A+ F A+ B 42% 31% 27% B- B B- F D B- A+ A+ A+
0.90 48% 53% 25% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.4 .12 16% .17 67% .11 0.92 42% 50% 25% -7 -1 0.87 29% 1.3 .38 21% .24 58% .14
Feb
19		 High Point F F F F F 30% 26% 43% F F B- F F+ F+ D F F B- B- F A+ A- 53% 2% 45% F B F A+ B- D+ B D+ B-
0.75 43% 25% 25% -14 -1 0.72 36% 0.7 .24 25% .27 54% .14 1.15 56% 100% 26% -5 +3 0.98 42% 0.8 .33 12% .32 78% .25
Feb
21		 Radford D- C B+ D+ C 43% 36% 21% F D+ D- F+ F+ A+ F F F C+ A+ A- F B- 38% 25% 37% B B- D A+ B C- F A+ F
1.04 58% 45% 33% +2 -2 1.04 26% 0.9 .24 11% .22 50% .11 1.03 35% 31% 47% -3 -1 0.94 32% 0.7 .22 17% .51 63% .32
Feb
26		 Gardner-Webb B- C- A+ B- C- 36% 19% 45% D+ C- A A A+ C- A+ F A F D+ F B- D 49% 4% 47% F D- A- F D F D- D F+
1.24 60% 50% 37% +5 0 1.12 45% 1.3 .61 16% .46 63% .29 1.15 58% 50% 30% -2 +3 1.04 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 72% .23
Feb
28		 Charleston Southern D B- A+ F B- 36% 34% 30% D- C+ D+ B- C C- A+ F A- F D A+ F F 47% 9% 45% D- F A B A- B F C F
1.06 59% 56% 21% +1 -2 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 13% .52 59% .31 1.30 64% 25% 67% +23 +2 1.53 21% 0.8 .17 21% .43 67% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 100.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6 97.4
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 16.0 97.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 44.4%
Lose Out 48.1%