Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 155
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 152
Pace 64.8 281
Improvement +4.9 23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #213 D C+ B- B- F+
Defense C+ #120 C+ B- C C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 332 55% 257 -4.7 335
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 28 35% 284 +2.7 57
Three Pointers 38% 253 33% 199 -2.0 253
1st FG Attempt 0.94 302 -4.0 303
Second Chance 31.4% 156 1.05 145 0.33 132
Turnovers 15.7% 105
Freethrows 0.35 50 71% 229 0.25 87
Total Offense -1.7 213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 147 60% 251 -1.8 238
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 105 31% 10 +0.9 116
Three Pointers 38% 276 32% 106 +2.6 74
1st FG Attempt 0.98 119 +1.8 119
Second Chance 31.4% 219 0.88 21 0.27 78
Turnovers 17.3% 160
Freethrows 0.31 211 70% 69 0.22 184
Total Defense +1.8 120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.7 343 -0.2 137
Shot Type Accuracy -2.3 255 -1.6 115
Possession Length 18.2 266 17.6 239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 360 0.14 90
Improvement +3.1 #45 +1.8 #87

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 58% 83% 51%
.500 or above in Conference 68% 91% 62%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 21.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 71 - 10
Quad 36 - 47 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 326 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 89% +5  87% 1 - 0 D -10 F -12 F C- C- C+ +1 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  0% 1 - 1 F -29 F -11 F D+ A- F -14 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 266 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 80% +3  85% 2 - 1 C- -4 D -4 F+ D- A+ C+ +1 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 342 Bryant W 68 - 50 91% +4  70% 3 - 1 C+ +3 D- -6 F B- B A +11 A+ D C-
 Wed, Nov 19 299 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 68% +12  95% 4 - 1 B +10 B+ +9 B- B B C+ +1 B- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 340 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 91% -6  3% 4 - 2 F -23 F -23 F C- B+ C +0 D F+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 295 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 84% +14  93% 5 - 2 A +18 B +7 C+ A D A+ +13 A D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 85 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 19% +2  62% 5 - 3 B- +7 D -4 B- C F A +11 A A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 113 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 49% +2  49% 5 - 4 C- -3 C +1 F A A D+ -4 B+ F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 64 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 14% -12  0% 5 - 5 C- -5 C +1 B- B+ F D -6 F+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 112 Murray St. L 79 - 85 48% +2  62% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 C+ C C+ D+ -4 F+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 100 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 22% -3  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -2 F+ -8 F+ F A- B +4 B- C B
 Thu, Jan 1 127 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 32% -5  20% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C -0 D+ -3 F F+ A+ B- +4 A- C F
 Sun, Jan 4 137 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 56% -1  38% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B- +5 C -0 D D+ B+ B+ +6 B- C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 94 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 41% +5  76% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B +8 A- +10 A+ F C C -1 A- D+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 112 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 27% -6  15% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -7 C- -2 B- D+ F D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 78 @Belmont L 74 - 78 17% -3  10% 7 - 10 2 - 5 B- +6 B +7 D+ A+ C+ C -1 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 100 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 42% +2  65% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B+ +12 D -5 F B A+ A+ +19 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 127 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 54% +11  85% 9 - 10 4 - 5 B- +5 B- +4 A- D B+ C+ +2 A- C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 78 Belmont L 77 - 78 34% -2  31% 9 - 11 4 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ F A C +0 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 197 @Indiana St. W 76 - 72 OT 48% -3  13% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +5 C +0 D- C+ B B +4 C A- D+
 Tue, Feb 3 120 @Bradley L 65 - 72 29% -5  10% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 D A- C+ C+ +1 D A B
 Fri, Feb 6 273 Evansville W 70 - 63 OT 81% +1  68% 11 - 12 6 - 7 C- -2 D- -8 F A+ D- B +5 C A C-
 Mon, Feb 9 177 @Drake W 81 - 76 43% -0  32% 12 - 12 7 - 7 B- +7 B+ +9 B- A+ D+ C- -2 A- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 94 @Illinois St. L 64 - 72 22%
 Sun, Feb 15 197 Indiana St. W 74 - 68 71%
 Wed, Feb 18 120 Bradley W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 137 @Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 70 34%
 Wed, Feb 25 177 Drake W 73 - 69 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 273 @Evansville W 70 - 67 62%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 +0 C- -2 D C+ B- C+ +2 C+ B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ D+ C D+ 32% 30% 38% F+ D C+ C+ C+ B- B C- B- C+ C- A B- C+ 40% 23% 38% C+ C+ C- A- B- C C- B- C
1.06 55% 35% 33% -2 -2 0.94 31% 1.0 .33 16% .35 71% .25 1.06 60% 31% 32% -2 0 0.98 31% 0.9 .27 17% .31 70% .25
Nov
4		 Eastern Illinois F C- F F F 27% 9% 64% C F C- C- C- C- A+ F A+ C+ F C+ B+ F 34% 47% 18% A+ D F+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37 0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50
Nov
7		 Kentucky F B- F F F 17% 24% 59% D+ F C- D- D+ A- C+ F C- F F B- F F 47% 10% 43% F F B- A+ A+ F D+ F F
0.79 60% 14% 24% -14 -2 0.69 24% 0.7 .16 13% .31 65% .20 1.43 81% 33% 44% +17 +2 1.40 33% 0.5 .18 8% .38 85% .32
Nov
12		 Nicholls St. D F D A+ D+ 27% 40% 33% F F+ D+ F D- A+ A- D B C+ C+ A D+ C- 25% 18% 57% B C C+ F F A+ C+ A+ B
1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31 1.00 55% 25% 36% -1 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15
Nov
16		 Bryant D- F D+ C- F 40% 20% 40% D F C- A- B- B A+ F A A B- A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% B A+ F A- D C- A F B
1.08 39% 33% 33% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .38 11% .45 64% .29 0.79 50% 0% 18% -21 0 0.60 38% 0.8 .31 21% .18 89% .16
Nov
19		 Cleveland St. B+ A A- C+ B 35% 29% 36% F+ B- B C+ B B B D+ B- C+ F A- A+ B 40% 14% 46% D B- A+ F B- F D F+ F+
1.30 74% 50% 35% +10 -1 1.18 42% 1.1 .45 13% .33 75% .25 1.08 70% 29% 26% -2 +1 1.00 16% 1.4 .23 13% .38 83% .32
Nov
26		 Southern Indiana F F F+ F F 27% 36% 37% F F B- F+ C- B+ F F F C C+ A+ D D- 27% 22% 51% B- D F D F+ A- F A- F
0.80 44% 29% 14% -19 -3 0.59 36% 0.8 .28 13% .16 60% .10 0.91 50% 20% 35% -5 -1 0.89 34% 0.9 .32 21% .45 60% .27
Nov
29		 Western Michigan B F B+ A+ B 30% 24% 46% F+ C+ A B- A D A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ 42% 27% 31% C A C- F D- A+ B- A+ A-
1.29 43% 45% 48% +7 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42 0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14
Dec
2		 Marquette D A A+ D B+ 24% 35% 42% F B- C- C+ C F D- F F+ A A+ A C A+ 51% 14% 35% B- A C A+ A B+ F F F
0.94 69% 47% 30% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 27% .21 67% .14 0.97 42% 29% 33% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.6 .19 18% .51 84% .43
Dec
13		 UNC Wilmington C A F F F 28% 34% 38% D- F A+ D A A A+ C+ A+ D+ C B- A+ A 35% 20% 46% D B+ F A- F+ C- F A+ F
1.10 71% 24% 21% -8 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31 1.15 56% 33% 24% -8 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35
Dec
16		 Northwestern C A- B D B+ 25% 40% 35% F B- C A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ D F F A F+ 43% 18% 39% D F+ D- B C- D+ D+ A C+
1.02 67% 42% 29% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 22% .41 73% .30 1.26 71% 78% 26% +9 +1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 10% .36 68% .24
Dec
21		 Murray St. C- D+ A C+ B 36% 40% 24% F C+ D+ B+ C C+ D F+ D- D+ D+ F F F 45% 27% 29% B F+ B- A+ A+ C F D- F
1.10 52% 48% 36% +3 -3 1.02 30% 1.2 .35 15% .25 67% .16 1.19 64% 54% 43% +11 0 1.22 30% 0.4 .12 15% .46 82% .38
Dec
29		 Northern Iowa F+ F+ B- F F 40% 21% 38% C F+ A F F A- B- A- B B C+ A C B 53% 18% 30% D+ B- A- F C B F F F
0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22 1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29
Jan
1		 Southern Illinois D+ F F+ F F 38% 29% 34% D F C+ F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A A+ C- A 44% 20% 36% F+ A- A- F C F F A F
0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37 1.00 45% 30% 33% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38
Jan
4		 Illinois-Chicago C F+ F A+ D+ 39% 34% 26% F+ D D- C+ D+ B+ A+ B- A+ B+ F C- A+ C 36% 36% 29% A+ B- C+ C+ C+ A+ D A C
1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61 0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24
Jan
7		 Illinois St. A- C- B+ A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% F+ A+ F+ F F C A+ B A+ C F+ A+ A- A- 41% 31% 27% B A- F A+ D+ D F A D-
1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48 1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25
Jan
10		 Murray St. C- C F A+ B- 53% 24% 24% B B- C- D+ D+ F A A A+ D+ D B- F F 42% 15% 44% D+ F C A+ A+ C- D+ C- D
1.06 56% 25% 50% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 21% .37 82% .31 1.23 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.6 .19 15% .36 78% .28
Jan
13		 Belmont B A+ C- D C+ 12% 36% 52% F D+ B A+ A+ C+ C+ F D- C F B F D 47% 17% 36% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A+
1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15 1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11
Jan
17		 Northern Iowa D F F F F+ 21% 42% 37% F F C- A+ B A+ A+ B A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 33% A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29 0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04
Jan
21		 Southern Illinois B- A- F A+ A 31% 31% 38% F+ A- F A+ D B+ A+ D A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% F A- C- B+ C+ C+ F A F
1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37 0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34
Jan
28		 Belmont C+ A+ F+ A- A- 28% 28% 43% D- B+ C- F F A A C+ A C C- B F D- 33% 14% 53% B+ D+ B- F+ C- B+ F+ B- D
1.13 73% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 64% 33% 48% +13 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Indiana St. C F A+ F F+ 51% 29% 20% C D- B+ D+ C+ B A+ F A+ B F+ A+ A+ C+ 52% 8% 40% D+ C B- A+ A- D+ F A+ D
1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27 1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20
Feb
3		 Bradley D+ B- C F D+ 33% 37% 31% D D D+ A+ A- C+ F F F C+ C F C D- 33% 29% 38% B+ D C A+ A B B- A- B+
1.00 63% 39% 27% -2 -2 0.94 29% 1.5 .43 18% .19 40% .08 1.10 59% 53% 35% +5 -1 1.10 27% 0.6 .17 17% .30 69% .20
Feb
6		 Evansville D- D+ F F F 23% 38% 40% F F A A+ A+ D- C- A C+ B A- A+ F C 35% 25% 39% D+ C C A+ A C- A A A+
1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22 0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12
Feb
9		 Drake B+ F A+ A+ B- 30% 24% 46% C- B- B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C- A+ C- B- D A+ A 34% 22% 44% C A- F+ F+ F F A A- A
1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32 1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 -1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 1.1 1.1 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.4 0.4 5.4 3rd
4th 0.1 5.4 3.7 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 2.3 11.2 0.8 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 14.3 6.9 0.0 22.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 14.4 14.3 0.8 30.9 7th
8th 0.3 5.1 6.3 0.6 12.2 8th
9th 1.0 2.1 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.4 8.7 22.1 31.5 24.8 10.1 1.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.5% 6.6% 6.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-8 10.1% 5.7% 5.7% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.5
11-9 24.8% 4.8% 4.8% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 23.6
10-10 31.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 30.6
9-11 22.1% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 21.7
8-12 8.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 1.4% 1.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 13.8 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 0.8%