Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#242
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#251
Pace70.5#121
Improvement-2.2#283

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#332
First Shot-5.1#315
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#257
Layup/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.4#362
Freethrows+1.4#94
Improvement-3.8#343

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#139
First Shot-1.7#234
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#7
Layups/Dunks-2.0#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#60
Freethrows-4.0#359
Improvement+1.6#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 1.1% 2.1% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 11.1% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.3% 17.9% 47.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 47 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 120   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 33%     0 - 1 -23.2 -17.2 -5.6
  Nov 16, 2024 184   Texas St. W 72-60 46%     1 - 1 +8.2 -4.2 +12.5
  Nov 20, 2024 170   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 25%     1 - 2 -3.7 +4.2 -7.6
  Nov 25, 2024 248   Southern Miss W 82-74 51%     2 - 2 +2.9 +13.1 -9.8
  Nov 26, 2024 189   @ Montana St. L 59-85 28%     2 - 3 -24.9 -8.2 -18.9
  Nov 30, 2024 212   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 33%     3 - 3 +15.8 +0.2 +16.5
  Dec 04, 2024 166   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 24%     4 - 3 +10.5 +12.7 -1.8
  Dec 09, 2024 20   @ Baylor L 57-88 3%     4 - 4 -12.7 -5.7 -9.0
  Dec 18, 2024 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-68 67%     4 - 5 -10.3 -10.4 +0.1
  Dec 21, 2024 274   Texas Southern W 69-65 65%     5 - 5 -4.8 -12.1 +6.9
  Dec 28, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 54-92 3%     5 - 6 -19.6 -8.4 -11.6
  Dec 31, 2024 270   Stephen F. Austin L 57-62 64%     5 - 7 -13.6 -18.7 +5.4
  Jan 04, 2025 132   @ Utah Valley L 53-64 20%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -6.9 -16.7 +10.2
  Jan 11, 2025 162   @ Seattle L 64-66 24%     5 - 9 0 - 2 +0.7 -1.6 +2.1
  Jan 16, 2025 74   @ Grand Canyon L 58-88 9%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -20.0 -10.1 -8.9
  Jan 18, 2025 161   California Baptist L 54-60 40%     5 - 11 0 - 4 -8.2 -17.8 +9.2
  Jan 23, 2025 247   Tarleton St. W 67-56 61%     6 - 11 1 - 4 +3.4 -6.4 +9.5
  Jan 25, 2025 200   Texas Arlington L 76-79 OT 48%     6 - 12 1 - 5 -7.3 -2.1 -5.1
  Jan 30, 2025 161   @ California Baptist L 60-83 23%     6 - 13 1 - 6 -20.2 -8.2 -13.5
  Feb 06, 2025 292   @ Utah Tech L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 268   @ Southern Utah L 70-71 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 162   Seattle L 66-69 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 72-68 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 292   Utah Tech W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 247   @ Tarleton St. L 63-65 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 200   @ Texas Arlington L 70-75 29%    
  Mar 06, 2025 132   Utah Valley L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 74   Grand Canyon L 67-77 20%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 6.1 1.7 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 9.1 3.4 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 2.9 13.0 6.8 0.5 23.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.9 14.0 8.0 0.6 26.7 8th
9th 0.8 4.9 8.9 4.4 0.3 0.0 19.4 9th
Total 0.8 5.1 12.9 21.3 23.7 19.1 11.3 4.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2
9-7 1.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 1.1
8-8 4.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
7-9 11.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.2
6-10 19.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 18.8
5-11 23.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 23.6
4-12 21.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.3
3-13 12.9% 12.9
2-14 5.1% 5.1
1-15 0.8% 0.8
0-16
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%