Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.5 245
Results Rating -3.6 228
Pace 67.5 211
Improvement +2.3 97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 314 D+ C- F+ C+ C-
Defense C+ 141 D- C+ A+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 108 D+ 54% 290 -0.2 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 26 D+ 35% 276 +1.0 125
Three Pointers 34% 325 C- 33% 234 -4.4 321
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 240 D+ -3.2 299
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 296
Second Chance C+ 32.7% 112 F+ 0.87 350 C- 0.29 240
Turnovers F+ 20.7% 351
Freethrows B- 0.33 96 C- 71% 238 C+ 0.23 128
Total Offense D -5.6 314

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 153 F+ 15.4% 348
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 44% 13 C- 6.1% 255
Three Pointers C 83% 204 D 1.5% 319
Total C+ 58% 132 F 8.4% 358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 12 D+ 62% 294 +6.6 356
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 263 C 38% 189 -1.0 112
Three Pointers 36% 329 F 40% 362 +0.4 201
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 334 D- +4.8 344
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 344
Second Chance B- 27.9% 83 C- 1.07 242 C+ 0.30 141
Turnovers A+ 22.9% 3
Freethrows F 0.45 365 C 72% 193 F 0.32 365
Total Defense C+ +1.1 141

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 110 D+ 8.7% 265
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 193 C 4.8% 181
Three Pointers C 84% 176 D+ 0.4% 280
Total C+ 53% 132 C- 5.1% 215

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 284 16.5 39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 84 0.25 355
Improvement -0.2 #198 +2.6 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 270 244 210
Results Rating Rank 282 230 194
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 8 - 10
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 47% 17% 60%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 239 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 61% +4  76% 1 - 0 D+ -5 D- -7 C C F C+ +1 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 102 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 13% -1  31% 1 - 1 C- -2 C- -2 D- D C+ C -1 D- B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 237 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 37% -11  1% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -20 F B F B +4 D A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 334 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 75% +7  94% 2 - 2 C -0 F -12 F B F A+ +13 A- C A
 Tue, Nov 25 136 William & Mary L 58 - 92 28% -12  1% 2 - 3 F -32 F -21 F F+ F F+ -9 F D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 281 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 47% +8  88% 3 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 C C- B+ B- +2 D+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 163 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 45% +5  82% 4 - 3 C+ +5 B +7 A+ B- F C -1 C- B A
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  0% 4 - 4 D+ -6 C- -2 C C+ D- C- -3 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 20 @BYU L 67 - 85 2% -5  28% 4 - 5 C+ +3 D+ -2 D A F B+ +6 D+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 305 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 54% -2  30% 5 - 5 C +1 D+ -2 D+ C F B +4 D- C+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 189 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 51% -14  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -20 F -11 C+ F+ F F+ -10 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 95 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 24% +5  74% 6 - 6 1 - 1 A +20 A +13 A D+ A+ B+ +7 D C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 230 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 36% +7  98% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 B A+ D D -5 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 180 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 27% -6  2% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D -8 B +6 A B- D+ F -14 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 138 California Baptist L 58 - 74 39% -13  12% 7 - 8 2 - 3 F -18 F+ -10 D+ F B F+ -9 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 278 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 46% -11  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 F -26 F -26 F F F C+ +1 D- D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 29 189 Utah Tech L 70 - 76 51% -7  0% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D -11 F -12 D- A- F C+ +2 D+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 278 Southern Utah L 76 - 79 69% +4  84% 7 - 11 2 - 6 D- -13 D+ -2 B D C F -10 F F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 95 @Utah Valley L 55 - 68 11% -7  23% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -4 F -13 B- F F A +9 B D- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 138 @California Baptist L 63 - 65 20% -4  5% 7 - 13 2 - 8 C+ +2 D -5 F+ D D- A- +8 C A+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 180 Texas Arlington W 67 - 63 49% +2  56% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C -0 D+ -4 F B C+ B +4 F A- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 230 Tarleton St. W 73 - 59 59% -3  26% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B- +7 D+ -3 C B F A +10 D A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 230 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 65 OT 36% +1  63% 9 - 14 4 - 9 C- -4 F -16 F F F+ A+ +12 C A+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 278 Southern Utah W 87 - 83 69% -4  23% 10 - 14 5 - 9 D+ -6 C +1 B F D- D- -7 F C A+
 Thu, Feb 26 189 @Utah Tech L 67 - 73 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 95 @Utah Valley L 64 - 77 10%
 Thu, Mar 5 138 @California Baptist L 61 - 70 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 180 Texas Arlington L 65 - 66 49%
Totals 11 - 17 6 - 12 -4 D -6 B- D+ C- C+ +1 C- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ C- D+ 41% 57% 34% C- D+ C+ F+ C- F+ B- C- C+ C+ D+ C F D- 46% 18% 36% D D- B- C- C+ A+ F C F
1.01 54% 35% 33% -3 0 0.95 33% 0.9 .29 21% .33 71% .23 1.07 62% 38% 40% +5 +1 1.14 28% 1.1 .30 23% .45 72% .24
Nov
6		 Nebraska Omaha D- C C- C+ C- 39% 17% 43% C+ C A- F C F A B- A C+ C- F C- D- 37% 22% 41% C D A- A+ A+ A+ F C- F
1.06 61% 38% 35% +2 0 1.07 38% 0.8 .31 20% .38 76% .29 1.03 60% 56% 35% +5 0 1.12 20% 0.4 .08 23% .59 74% .44
Nov
14		 Stephen F. Austin C- C- D- F D 47% 35% 18% D- D- C+ F D C+ B+ A+ A C A+ F F D 43% 17% 40% F D- A+ F B+ C- F A F
0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28 1.13 35% 50% 53% +4 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25
Nov
18		 Texas St. F F A+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A D B F A- F D B A A F D 56% 26% 18% F D F A+ A- A+ F B F
0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21 1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36
Nov
24		 Texas San Antonio F F F C+ F 45% 16% 39% C+ F A- D+ B F A C- A A+ B B- A+ A 51% 16% 32% F A- B D C A F A+ F
0.98 30% 14% 35% -16 +1 0.73 45% 1.0 .45 24% .36 71% .26 0.81 47% 33% 17% -15 +2 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 23% .56 56% .31
Nov
25		 William & Mary F B- B- F F+ 31% 23% 46% D- F B F F+ F B- F F F+ F F D+ F 55% 15% 30% D+ F B- F D+ B- F A F
0.78 63% 42% 21% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.6 .20 28% .32 35% .11 1.23 85% 57% 36% +18 +2 1.43 24% 1.4 .33 19% .49 67% .33
Dec
2		 Pepperdine C+ C+ B+ C+ B- 33% 24% 43% F C C- C+ C- B+ A+ B- A+ B- F+ A+ D- C- 44% 17% 39% F+ D+ B+ A+ A C- F C F
1.15 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 13% .43 74% .32 1.02 67% 0% 38% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 18% .49 76% .37
Dec
6		 New Mexico St. B D+ A A+ A+ 36% 26% 38% C- A+ A F+ B- F A A- A+ C A D F C 41% 19% 41% F C- F A+ B A F D- F
1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38 1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53
Dec
16		 Arizona C- D- F A C 36% 36% 29% C C B- C- C+ D- A+ D- A+ C- F F F F 51% 19% 30% F F B F D- A+ F D- F
0.84 44% 25% 38% -8 -2 0.82 26% 0.8 .21 22% .43 64% .28 1.30 86% 50% 46% +22 +1 1.49 37% 1.3 .47 26% .69 79% .55
Dec
19		 BYU D+ A+ F+ F C- 19% 52% 29% F D A- B A F B A+ A+ B+ F+ F C+ D- 30% 30% 41% B+ D+ A F F A+ F B- F
0.94 89% 28% 21% -5 -5 0.81 33% 1.3 .42 22% .27 93% .25 1.19 73% 64% 33% +12 -2 1.22 30% 2.3 .70 25% .75 73% .54
Dec
22		 Texas Southern D+ A+ F F D+ 41% 20% 39% C- D+ D A- C F A+ A+ A+ B F A+ A D+ 57% 20% 24% F D- A+ F C+ B D- C+ D
1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40 0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23
Jan
1		 Utah Tech F A+ F F B- 46% 22% 33% C- C+ C- F F+ F A+ D A- F+ F F F F 37% 11% 52% D F B- B B A+ C F D-
0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27 1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21
Jan
3		 Utah Valley A C+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 29% 20% C- A C D D+ A+ F A+ D B+ C B- F+ D+ 49% 7% 44% D D A F C+ A+ D F+ F+
1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20 0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25
Jan
8		 Tarleton St. B+ C- A+ A- B 43% 23% 34% C- B B+ A+ A+ D A C A D B+ A- A+ A+ 67% 22% 11% F A F+ F F C F F F
1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35 1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46
Jan
10		 Texas Arlington B D+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 46% 26% F A D+ A+ B- D+ A+ F+ A+ F C D- F F 52% 26% 21% C+ F F F F C- F F F
1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39 1.24 55% 45% 44% +3 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47
Jan
15		 California Baptist F+ D- D C D 52% 27% 20% C D+ D- F F B A+ D- A F+ D+ A+ F D- 54% 19% 27% D D- C+ C+ C+ D+ F F F
0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30 1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33
Jan
17		 Southern Utah F F F F F 55% 14% 31% A- F B- F F F A+ B+ A+ C+ D- A+ D+ D 45% 12% 43% F D- D- B- D+ A- C- C C-
0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34 1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18
Jan
29		 Utah Tech F D- F C- F+ 48% 14% 38% B- D- C- A+ A- F D+ F F C+ D+ A+ F D+ 45% 17% 38% D D+ D+ F D- A+ F B+ F
0.95 54% 14% 32% -7 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14 1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38
Jan
31		 Southern Utah D+ A+ D B+ A- 30% 32% 38% F B F A- D C D- F F F F F F F 53% 32% 16% B- F F C- F+ A+ F F F
1.11 81% 35% 40% +10 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10 1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39
Feb
5		 Utah Valley F F F A+ B 34% 27% 39% D- B- C F F F D+ F F A C- A+ A+ B+ 62% 11% 28% D- B C+ F D- A+ F A+ D+
0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14 0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23
Feb
7		 California Baptist D F A- F F 49% 22% 29% B- F+ B+ F D D- A+ D A+ A- A+ A+ F C 51% 15% 33% D C A A+ A+ C F C+ F
0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32 0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Texas Arlington D+ F F F F 40% 27% 33% C F B C+ B C+ C- B C B F F F F 63% 23% 14% D F A+ F A- A+ F A- F
1.00 47% 23% 25% -13 -1 0.75 33% 1.1 .38 16% .36 75% .27 0.94 68% 50% 40% +10 +1 1.26 19% 1.3 .24 33% .51 65% .33
Feb
14		 Tarleton St. D+ C+ D- B C 33% 15% 53% C C A+ F+ B F A+ A A+ A C+ F C D 48% 24% 29% D- D A A+ A+ A+ F A+ B-
1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52 0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22
Feb
16		 Tarleton St. F B D- F F 38% 32% 30% F+ F B F F F+ A- F D+ A+ D- D A+ D+ 35% 35% 30% A- C A+ A+ A+ A F C+ F
0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25 0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46
Feb
21		 Southern Utah C A A F C+ 62% 12% 26% A+ B D- F F D- A+ B- A+ D- D+ C+ F F 52% 20% 28% D- F F A C A+ F C- F
1.16 71% 50% 23% +5 +3 1.18 24% 0.6 .14 16% .52 73% .38 1.11 63% 33% 69% +16 +1 1.37 38% 0.8 .29 32% .43 73% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 7.0 4.5 0.4 12.0 4th
5th 3.2 26.9 16.3 1.1 47.4 5th
6th 11.9 14.0 0.8 26.7 6th
7th 12.1 1.8 0.0 14.0 7th
Total 27.2 42.7 24.1 5.6 0.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.4% 5.8% 5.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 5.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.4 0.1 0.1 5.4
7-11 24.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7 23.4
6-12 42.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.5 42.2
5-13 27.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 98.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 14.2%