Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#212
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#190
Pace70.5#138
Improvement-0.8#231

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#251
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#323
Layup/Dunks+3.6#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.1#359
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement-1.8#301

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#157
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#17
Layups/Dunks-1.4#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#107
Freethrows-4.5#360
Improvement+1.0#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 9.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.5 14.5
.500 or above 37.5% 65.8% 36.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.6% 61.3% 47.1%
Conference Champion 5.6% 10.9% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 5.7% 12.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round5.1% 9.0% 5.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 3.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 85 - 11
Quad 49 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 129   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 44%     0 - 1 -24.2 -17.8 -6.0
  Nov 16, 2024 126   Texas St. W 72-60 43%     1 - 1 +11.1 -1.3 +12.5
  Nov 20, 2024 194   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 35%     1 - 2 -4.6 +2.6 -7.0
  Nov 25, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 82-74 65%     2 - 2 +1.4 +11.2 -9.4
  Nov 26, 2024 155   @ Montana St. L 59-85 29%     2 - 3 -22.9 -8.0 -17.1
  Nov 30, 2024 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 56%     3 - 3 +11.8 -0.6 +13.2
  Dec 04, 2024 201   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 36%     4 - 3 +9.2 +11.2 -1.5
  Dec 09, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 57-88 3%     4 - 4 -12.0 -6.0 -8.0
  Dec 18, 2024 356   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-68 76%     4 - 5 -11.0 -10.9 -0.1
  Dec 21, 2024 299   Texas Southern W 69-65 77%     5 - 5 -6.5 -13.7 +6.9
  Dec 28, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 59-79 3%    
  Dec 31, 2024 213   Stephen F. Austin W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 04, 2025 145   @ Utah Valley L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 143   @ Seattle L 68-74 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 107   @ Grand Canyon L 69-79 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 158   California Baptist W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 285   Tarleton St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 228   @ Southern Utah L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 143   Seattle L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 20, 2025 228   Southern Utah W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 285   @ Tarleton St. W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 74-79 32%    
  Mar 06, 2025 145   Utah Valley L 69-70 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 107   Grand Canyon L 72-76 36%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.6 1.0 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.7 6.5 1.5 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.5 6.9 1.8 0.1 15.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.9 6.3 1.7 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 4.0 1.2 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.4 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.0 10.6 13.9 15.3 14.7 12.7 9.3 6.0 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 98.2% 0.4    0.4 0.0
13-3 85.7% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 60.3% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
11-5 26.6% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 38.1% 38.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.4% 39.0% 39.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.4% 27.5% 27.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
12-4 3.0% 22.2% 22.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3
11-5 6.0% 16.8% 16.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 5.0
10-6 9.3% 10.9% 10.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 8.3
9-7 12.7% 6.2% 6.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 11.9
8-8 14.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.1
7-9 15.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.0
6-10 13.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.7
5-11 10.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.6
4-12 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-13 3.6% 3.6
2-14 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.0 0.6 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%