Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #202
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #153
Pace 66.4 #257
Improvement +4.9 #8

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #250 C- C F C+ D+
Defense #150 F C+ A F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #118 1.09 #256 +0.1 #173
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #54 0.76 #162 +2.8 #58
Three Pointers 32% #340 1.01 #194 -4.8 #322
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #227 -2.0 #228
Freethrows 18.4 #129 73% #179 13.4 #136
Second Chance 34.8% #75 0.93 #310 0.32 #168
Turnovers 20.1% #345
Total Offense -2.6 #250

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #16 1.22 #257 -6.1 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #309 0.75 #180 +1.7 #75
Three Pointers 37% #277 1.17 #347 -1.1 #219
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #332 -5.5 #332
Freethrows 26.7 #365 72% #180 19.4 #1
Second Chance 26.9% #63 1.11 #258 0.30 #127
Turnovers 20.6% #19
Total Defense +0.2 #150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #272 2.4% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #217 8.3% #320
Possession Length 18.9 #333 16.8 #100
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #219 0.25 #352
Improvement +4.3 #6 +0.6 #146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 10.9% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 52.0% 71.7% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 79.5% 51.8%
Conference Champion 6.6% 13.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.1% 3.9%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round7.2% 10.7% 5.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 30.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 49 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 257 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 72%  +4  1 - 0 -7 -5 C- C- F -2 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 19%  -1  1 - 1 -3 +1 D D+ D+ -4 F A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 268 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 53%  -11  1 - 2 -17 -19 F B- F +0 F A A+
 Mon, Nov 24 315 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 74%  +7  2 - 2 +2 -6 F B F +9 B C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 127 William & Mary L 58 - 92 34%  -12  2 - 3 -32 -17 D- F F -13 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 274 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 54%  +8  3 - 3 +4 +8 C+ C A+ -3 D A D+
 Sat, Dec 6 136 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 46%  +5  4 - 3 +6 +11 A+ C+ F -4 C- B A
 Tue, Dec 16 2 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1%  -21  4 - 4 -7 -0 C C+ F -5 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 8 @BYU L 67 - 85 2%  -5  4 - 5 +5 +3 C B+ F +2 D- F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 335 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 70%  -2  5 - 5 -1 +0 D- D- F -1 F B- B+
 Thu, Jan 1 227 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 66%  -14  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -9 C F F -13 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 101 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 33%  +5  6 - 6 1 - 1 +19 +15 A+ C- A+ +4 C- C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 172 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 34%  +7  7 - 6 2 - 1 +6 +9 C+ A+ F -4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 156 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 69 31% 
 Thu, Jan 15 147 California Baptist L 68 - 69 50% 
 Sat, Jan 17 329 @Southern Utah W 75 - 70 68% 
 Sat, Jan 24 172 @Tarleton St. L 71 - 75 35% 
 Thu, Jan 29 227 Utah Tech W 73 - 69 65% 
 Sat, Jan 31 329 Southern Utah W 78 - 67 85% 
 Thu, Feb 5 101 @Utah Valley L 66 - 76 17% 
 Sat, Feb 7 147 @California Baptist L 65 - 71 28% 
 Thu, Feb 12 156 Texas Arlington W 67 - 66 52% 
 Sat, Feb 14 172 Tarleton St. W 74 - 72 56% 
 Sat, Feb 21 329 Southern Utah W 78 - 67 84% 
 Thu, Feb 26 227 @Utah Tech L 70 - 72 44% 
 Sat, Feb 28 101 @Utah Valley L 66 - 76 17% 
 Thu, Mar 5 147 @California Baptist L 65 - 71 29% 
 Sat, Mar 7 156 Texas Arlington W 67 - 66 52% 
Totals 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2 -3 C- C F +0 F C+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.6 1st
2nd 0.3 2.9 6.8 5.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.9 8.6 4.4 0.7 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.9 9.3 4.2 0.3 0.0 19.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.9 8.7 4.0 0.2 20.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.5 5.2 1.9 0.1 15.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 7th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.2 7.4 11.7 16.0 17.6 16.0 11.9 8.2 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 92.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1
14-4 79.5% 1.3    1.0 0.3
13-5 52.4% 2.3    1.3 1.0 0.1
12-6 24.2% 2.0    0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
11-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.3 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 25.0% 25.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.7% 25.1% 25.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-5 4.4% 24.9% 24.9% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.3
12-6 8.2% 16.8% 16.8% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 6.8
11-7 11.9% 12.7% 12.7% 14.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 10.4
10-8 16.0% 7.9% 7.9% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 14.7
9-9 17.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 16.8
8-10 16.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 15.5
7-11 11.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.5
6-12 7.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.3
5-13 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 14.3 92.6 0.0%