Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 269
Results Rating -7.4 283
Pace 64.1 302
Improvement -5.4 348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 165 C- C B- D D+
Defense D- 331 D D D+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 269 D- 51% 331 -4.1 324
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 68 C 38% 182 +1.5 98
Three Pointers 40% 211 B- 36% 105 +0.5 161
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 280 C- -1.4 225
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 247
Second Chance C+ 31.8% 140 D+ 0.97 279 C 0.31 185
Turnovers B- 15.5% 96
Freethrows D 0.27 293 C- 71% 231 D 0.19 296
Total Offense C +0.0 165

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 349 C- 11.5% 209
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 352 B- 4.0% 106
Three Pointers F+ 73% 351 F+ 2.0% 348
Total F 42% 359 C 5.9% 212

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 16 D+ 62% 289 +6.0 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 284 D- 43% 335 -0.3 163
Three Pointers 37% 294 D+ 36% 268 -0.9 140
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 339 D +3.6 315
1st FG Attempt D 1.12 327
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 274 D 1.14 321 D 0.37 318
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 258
Freethrows D- 0.37 342 C- 73% 228 D- 0.27 341
Total Defense D- -6.1 331

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 285 D+ 8.0% 305
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 105 C- 4.0% 230
Three Pointers D+ 87% 264 D+ 0.5% 243
Total C- 57% 215 D+ 4.5% 263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 329 16.7 79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 287 0.24 350
Improvement -0.1 #193 -5.3 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 288 269 244
Results Rating Rank 312 281 250
Conference Record 6 - 16 7 - 15 9 - 13
Conference Finish 11 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 21% 4% 32%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 42 - 11
Quad 47 - 89 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 91 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 8% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -25 D -6 D- F A+ F -21 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 38 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  12% 0 - 2 B +9 D+ -2 C D+ B A +10 A+ C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 339 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 71% +8  98% 1 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 B+ D+ B F -11 F B F+
 Sat, Nov 22 90 High Point L 80 - 91 13% -5  37% 1 - 3 C- -5 A- +10 D- A+ A+ F -16 D F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 81 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 17% +5  96% 2 - 3 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +2 A- A C B+ +6 B- D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 256 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 35% -3  17% 2 - 4 1 - 1 D -9 D -5 F A- A- D+ -4 D- B- F+
 Mon, Dec 8 206 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 26% -8  1% 2 - 5 1 - 2 C -0 B+ +8 B+ A- C- F+ -9 F B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 50 @TCU L 65 - 69 4% +4  76% 2 - 6 B +10 B- +4 B+ D+ B- B +5 A F D-
 Sun, Dec 21 304 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 70% +10  93% 3 - 6 B+ +13 A- +9 B- B- A+ B +4 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 287 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 66% +4  87% 4 - 6 2 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C- B- B+ C -1 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 298 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 68% +9  96% 5 - 6 3 - 2 B- +6 D -5 D- F+ A+ A+ +11 B A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 145 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 17% -8  1% 5 - 7 3 - 3 D -9 C- -1 F C- A F+ -9 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 216 @Lamar L 51 - 63 28% -5  5% 5 - 8 3 - 4 D- -12 F -17 D+ F D- B- +3 C- B A
 Mon, Jan 12 102 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 10% -7  6% 5 - 9 3 - 5 C- -2 F -22 F F C- A+ +20 A+ D B+
 Sat, Jan 17 275 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 62% -4  14% 6 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -7 C +1 D- A+ D F+ -9 F C+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 308 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 70% -11  12% 6 - 10 4 - 6 F -34 F -11 F C+ A+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 205 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 47% -10  2% 6 - 11 4 - 7 D- -13 C- -2 B D F F -11 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 298 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 46% +6  75% 6 - 12 4 - 8 D -11 D -5 C- D F D -6 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 145 UT Rio Grande Valley L 93 - 106 35% -7  13% 6 - 13 4 - 9 F+ -15 A +14 A+ D- D- F -29 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 205 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 69 26% +4  90% 7 - 13 5 - 9 C+ +3 B- +4 A F B C -1 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 81 @McNeese St. L 64 - 81 7% -6  2% 7 - 14 5 - 10 D+ -7 C+ +2 B- A- F F -11 F A- F+
 Mon, Feb 9 287 @SE Louisiana L 62 - 74 43% -12  6% 7 - 15 5 - 11 F+ -16 D+ -3 F D+ B- F -15 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 256 Nicholls St. L 83 - 91 58% -9  0% 7 - 16 5 - 12 F+ -16 B+ +8 D- B+ A+ F -25 F C+ F
 Mon, Feb 16 206 New Orleans L 64 - 78 47% -8  4% 7 - 17 5 - 13 F -19 F+ -10 D+ F D+ F -11 B F F
 Sat, Feb 21 308 @East Texas A&M W 82 - 73 48% +5  94% 8 - 17 6 - 13 C+ +3 A+ +25 C+ A+ B+ F -19 F F F
 Mon, Feb 23 275 @Northwestern St. L 70 - 73 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 216 Lamar L 71 - 72 50%
 Mon, Mar 2 102 Stephen F. Austin L 68 - 76 23%
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 15 -6 C +0 B+ C- D+ D- -6 B- C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D- C B- C- 36% 48% 40% D+ C- C+ D+ C B- D C- D D- D+ D- D+ D 46% 17% 37% D D D+ D D D+ D- C- D-
1.09 51% 38% 36% -1 -1 0.98 32% 1.0 .31 16% .27 71% .19 1.17 62% 43% 36% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.1 .37 16% .37 73% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado St. D C- A- F D- 26% 28% 46% D- D- F F F A+ B+ F C F F F F F 32% 18% 50% B- F F+ F F D- F F F
0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20 1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49
Nov
16		 Indiana D+ F+ F A+ C+ 26% 41% 33% F C D C+ D+ B F B F A D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 7% 45% D- A+ F A- C- B- F A F
0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33
Nov
20		 Southern Indiana B- B B+ A+ A- 55% 27% 18% C- B+ C+ F+ D+ B A+ F A F F F A+ F 42% 21% 37% D F A C- B F+ D+ F F+
1.19 64% 43% 44% +7 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30 1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25
Nov
22		 High Point A- F+ B+ D D 32% 22% 46% D- D- B+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ F D F B+ D+ 56% 8% 35% F D F F F D+ F F F
1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31 1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45
Dec
1		 McNeese St. C+ A F A+ A 26% 28% 46% F A- B+ A- A C A+ D A B+ B F A+ C+ 42% 29% 29% B+ B- A F D A+ B- F C-
1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34 1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23
Dec
6		 Nicholls St. D F+ F F F 42% 31% 27% F+ F A- B- A- A- A+ D A+ D+ A A+ F D 49% 10% 41% F D- A- F+ B- F+ F D- F
1.03 53% 29% 8% -16 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41 1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47
Dec
8		 New Orleans B+ F A+ A A 22% 28% 50% F B+ C A+ A- C- C C- C F+ F+ F F F 50% 24% 26% D- F D+ A+ B+ A+ F D- F
1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26 1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41
Dec
15		 TCU B- C- F A+ B+ 43% 18% 39% B- B+ D+ C- D+ B- F F F B F A A+ A 44% 24% 31% B- A A- F F D- F C- F
1.01 52% 22% 47% +2 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10 1.08 70% 27% 14% -7 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32
Dec
21		 Northern Arizona A- D+ C- A+ B- 34% 15% 51% D+ B- B C- B- A+ A+ F+ A+ B D A- F F 41% 22% 37% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ C
1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33 0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19
Dec
30		 SE Louisiana C- F F A+ C- 31% 22% 47% C- C- D A+ B- B+ F C F C B- A+ A+ A- 50% 16% 34% F B F+ A C+ D+ C- F D-
1.09 47% 17% 46% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.5 .39 17% .26 75% .20 0.96 54% 22% 21% -11 +1 0.82 34% 0.7 .24 17% .33 80% .26
Jan
3		 Houston Christian D B- A- F D- 36% 20% 45% D D- F D F+ A+ F B- F+ A+ B+ B+ A A- 53% 19% 28% F+ B D A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A
1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15 0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11
Jan
5		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F D- B- F 40% 26% 34% C- F B+ F C- A C+ C- C F+ D- F B+ C+ 35% 8% 58% D- C F D F D+ D F F+
1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25 1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24
Jan
10		 Lamar F A F C- D+ 44% 22% 33% C+ D+ C- F F D- F+ F F B- A F D+ B- 47% 22% 31% F C- D- A+ B A F C+ F+
0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12 1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23
Jan
12		 Stephen F. Austin F D D- F F 53% 24% 22% C+ F F+ F F C- C- F D+ A+ B A A+ A+ 39% 27% 33% C- A+ D+ D+ D B+ F A+ F
0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18 0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22
Jan
17		 Northwestern St. C F A+ B D 35% 28% 37% F+ D- C A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ F F C F 47% 19% 35% F F B D C+ B+ F C- F
1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42 1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36
Jan
19		 East Texas A&M F F B F F 39% 24% 37% D- F B- D+ C+ A+ D+ A+ B F D- F F F 51% 9% 40% F F F F F F F D F
0.96 37% 42% 17% -17 0 0.67 35% 1.1 .38 10% .29 88% .26 1.33 65% 50% 39% +8 +2 1.22 32% 1.6 .52 10% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- C- A- A- B+ 39% 18% 43% C- B B F D F F F F F B- F F F 55% 20% 25% D- F F F F A- F A F
1.03 58% 44% 38% +4 0 1.10 33% 0.7 .22 25% .29 60% .17 1.15 50% 50% 50% +4 +1 1.13 39% 1.2 .45 22% .67 58% .39
Jan
27		 Houston Christian D F A+ A+ C- 39% 18% 43% D+ C- A- F D F A+ F B+ D B- A- A B 61% 15% 24% F C+ F F F B- F F F
1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25 1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50
Jan
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley A A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 27% 40% D A+ A- F D- D- B A- A- F F F F F 42% 14% 44% D F B+ F F F F D- F
1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29 1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27
Feb
2		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- B F A+ A 52% 18% 30% B- A F+ F F B B C- B- C D B+ D+ D- 43% 28% 30% B D A A+ A C- F F F
1.08 65% 25% 46% +7 +1 1.18 20% 0.5 .10 18% .45 71% .32 1.05 60% 31% 36% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.7 .16 17% .42 74% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 McNeese St. C+ F D+ A+ B- 39% 9% 52% B+ B- A+ F+ A- F A+ F A+ F F A+ F F 53% 9% 37% F F A- B+ A- F+ F A+ F
1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41 1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36
Feb
9		 SE Louisiana D+ C- F C- F 29% 33% 38% F F B F D+ B- D- A+ C+ F B- F D F 32% 26% 43% C+ F+ F+ F F F B- B+ B
1.01 57% 19% 33% -7 -2 0.83 35% 0.8 .30 18% .32 94% .30 1.21 53% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.4 .45 11% .30 63% .18
Feb
14		 Nicholls St. B+ F A+ D F 49% 7% 44% A- D- C+ A- B+ A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F 65% 6% 29% F F B+ F+ C+ F F D+ F+
1.27 50% 75% 32% -3 +3 1.02 38% 1.3 .49 9% .17 100% .17 1.39 70% 0% 53% +14 +4 1.37 19% 1.2 .23 8% .36 68% .25
Feb
16		 New Orleans F+ D D+ C- D 38% 17% 46% C D+ C F F D+ A+ D- A- F A F A B+ 35% 26% 39% B- B C- F F F F B+ F
0.99 50% 38% 32% -5 0 0.94 35% 0.6 .22 17% .47 68% .32 1.21 44% 50% 28% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.3 .46 11% .59 71% .42
Feb
21		 East Texas A&M A+ F A+ B+ B- 31% 21% 48% F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F F+ D+ F F 31% 20% 49% B F F F F F A B A-
1.43 46% 56% 40% +4 -1 1.10 43% 2.1 .91 14% .33 94% .30 1.28 67% 40% 42% +9 -1 1.18 40% 1.1 .43 10% .16 63% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 11.2 5.1 16.3 7th
8th 6.4 13.4 19.8 8th
9th 23.5 1.8 25.3 9th
10th 10.8 13.3 0.0 24.1 10th
11th 11.0 1.0 12.0 11th
12th 2.5 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 24.2 44.2 26.4 5.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
8-14 26.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 26.4
7-15 44.2% 44.2
6-16 24.2% 24.2
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 24.2%