Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #248
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #291
Pace 66.0 #256
Improvement -4.8 #344

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #203 C- C- B- D D+
Defense #288 D+ D C F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.02 #331 -4.3 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #81 0.78 #136 +2.3 #65
Three Pointers 39% #224 1.05 #126 -0.5 #205
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #252 -2.5 #252
Freethrows 0.27 #286 69% #277 0.19 #301
Second Chance 31.7% #149 0.94 #287 0.30 #210
Turnovers 14.9% #72
Total Offense -1.4 #203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #8 1.21 #256 -6.2 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #291 0.88 #341 +0.2 #172
Three Pointers 36% #316 1.00 #153 +2.9 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #281 -3.1 #283
Freethrows 0.38 #344 73% #251 0.28 #351
Second Chance 32.7% #268 1.14 #317 0.37 #313
Turnovers 16.6% #184
Total Defense -3.8 #288

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #300 2.1% #347
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.1% #224 3.8% #256
Possession Length 18.2 #275 16.5 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #247 0.24 #346
Improvement -3.3 #332 -1.5 #268

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 0.7% 1.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 9.5% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 5.9% 20.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 31 - 52 - 11
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 103 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 12% -18  0 - 1 -26 -4 D- F A+ -25 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 30 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  0 - 2 +10 +1 C D+ B+ +8 A+ C B-
 Thu, Nov 20 332 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 70% +8  1 - 2 -5 +10 B+ C B- -15 F B- F+
 Sat, Nov 22 98 High Point L 80 - 91 17% -5  1 - 3 -6 +12 D- A+ A+ -18 D+ F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 85 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 20% +5  2 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +4 A- A C+ +4 B- D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 249 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 39% -3  2 - 4 1 - 1 -9 -1 F A+ A -8 D- C+ F+
 Mon, Dec 8 218 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 32% -8  2 - 5 1 - 2 -1 +9 B+ A- D+ -11 F B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 51 @TCU L 65 - 69 5% +4  2 - 6 +9 +7 B+ D+ C+ +2 A F D
 Sun, Dec 21 313 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 74% +10  3 - 6 +12 +12 B- B- A+ +1 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 271 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 65% +4  4 - 6 2 - 2 -0 +2 C- B- A- -3 B C D+
 Sat, Jan 3 297 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 71% +9  5 - 6 3 - 2 +6 -4 F+ F+ A+ +11 A- A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 26% -8  5 - 7 3 - 3 -12 +1 F C- A+ -14 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 197 @Lamar L 51 - 63 29% -5  5 - 8 3 - 4 -11 -13 C- F D+ +0 C- B+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 13% -7  5 - 9 3 - 5 -3 -20 F F D +16 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 270 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 65% -4  6 - 9 4 - 5 -7 +2 F+ A+ D- -9 F C+ B
 Mon, Jan 19 311 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 74% -11  6 - 10 4 - 6 -34 -9 F C+ A+ -29 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 51% -10  6 - 11 4 - 7 -13 +0 B+ D- F+ -14 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 297 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 49% +6  6 - 12 4 - 8 -11 -5 D+ D+ F -6 B- F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 181 UT Rio Grande Valley L 93 - 106 47% -7  6 - 13 4 - 9 -18 +16 A+ D- D+ -34 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66 - 72 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 85 @McNeese St. L 65 - 80 8%
 Mon, Feb 9 271 @SE Louisiana L 68 - 70 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 249 Nicholls St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Mon, Feb 16 218 New Orleans W 78 - 77 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 311 @East Texas A&M W 73 - 72 53%
 Mon, Feb 23 270 @Northwestern St. L 72 - 74 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 197 Lamar W 71 - 70 51%
 Mon, Mar 2 105 Stephen F. Austin L 68 - 74 28%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 14 -5 -1 C- C- B- -4 D+ D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 2.0 5th
6th 0.6 2.8 1.1 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 5.0 3.7 0.3 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 7.8 9.3 1.5 19.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 8.8 12.7 2.6 0.1 25.1 9th
10th 0.3 5.7 10.2 3.2 0.1 19.5 10th
11th 0.1 2.7 7.0 2.9 0.1 12.7 11th
12th 1.0 3.0 2.0 0.1 6.1 12th
Total 1.0 6.1 15.6 22.9 24.3 17.7 8.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.1% 0.1
12-10 0.6% 5.6% 5.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-11 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 3.0
10-12 8.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.6
9-13 17.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.6
8-14 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.3
7-15 22.9% 22.9
6-16 15.6% 15.6
5-17 6.1% 6.1
4-18 1.0% 1.0
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.7 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%