Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #165
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #210
Pace 64.6 #299
Improvement +2.0 #79

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #122 C- C A+ D D-
Defense #238 C- D+ C D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.06 #289 -4.3 #315
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #69 0.73 #202 +2.0 #82
Three Pointers 40% #210 1.09 #88 +0.8 #150
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #211 -1.5 #213
Freethrows 15.4 #281 70% #271 10.8 #283
Second Chance 31.4% #159 1.06 #163 0.33 #148
Turnovers 12.7% #8
Total Offense +1.5 #122

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #28 1.21 #248 -5.0 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #225 0.85 #309 -0.3 #210
Three Pointers 36% #302 0.96 #118 +3.4 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #239 -1.9 #239
Freethrows 19.2 #275 75% #287 14.4 #63
Second Chance 31.5% #215 1.13 #283 0.35 #261
Turnovers 16.4% #192
Total Defense -2.2 #238

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #306 1.5% #297
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #181 2.1% #221
Possession Length 18.5 #302 16.5 #59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #299 0.24 #337
Improvement -0.4 #215 +2.4 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.9% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 62.3% 74.3% 49.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 89.4% 71.7%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round6.1% 7.9% 4.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 94 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 19%  -18  0 - 1 -25 -4 F F A+ -24 F F F
 Sun, Nov 16 25 @Indiana L 61 - 69 5%  -10  0 - 2 +11 +2 C+ D+ A+ +8 A+ C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 333 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 83%  +8  1 - 2 -5 +7 B+ C B- -12 F C+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 86 High Point L 80 - 91 24%  -5  1 - 3 -4 +13 D A+ A+ -17 D+ F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 87 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 34%  +5  2 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +4 A- A- C+ +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 215 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 47%  -3  2 - 4 1 - 1 -7 -0 F A+ A+ -7 D B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 236 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 52%  -8  2 - 5 1 - 2 -2 +9 A- A D+ -11 F A- A+
 Mon, Dec 15 44 @TCU L 65 - 69 8%  +4  2 - 6 +11 +7 A- D+ B- +3 A+ D- F
 Sun, Dec 21 302 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 83%  +10  3 - 6 +13 +15 B+ A- A+ -1 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 260 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 78%  +4  4 - 6 2 - 2 +0 +2 C- B A -2 B+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 300 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 83%  +9  5 - 6 3 - 2 +6 -3 F F A+ +10 A A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 48%  -8  5 - 7 3 - 3 -13 +1 F D A+ -15 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 231 @Lamar W 69 - 68 51% 
 Mon, Jan 12 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 74 23% 
 Sat, Jan 17 288 Northwestern St. W 76 - 67 81% 
 Mon, Jan 19 324 East Texas A&M W 79 - 67 88% 
 Sat, Jan 24 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72 - 68 65% 
 Mon, Jan 26 300 @Houston Christian W 73 - 69 65% 
 Sat, Jan 31 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 76 - 70 69% 
 Mon, Feb 2 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 71 43% 
 Sat, Feb 7 87 @McNeese St. L 68 - 78 17% 
 Mon, Feb 9 260 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 68 57% 
 Sat, Feb 14 215 Nicholls St. W 76 - 71 69% 
 Mon, Feb 16 236 New Orleans W 80 - 73 73% 
 Sat, Feb 21 324 @East Texas A&M W 76 - 70 71% 
 Mon, Feb 23 288 @Northwestern St. W 73 - 70 62% 
 Sat, Feb 28 231 Lamar W 71 - 65 71% 
 Mon, Mar 2 112 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 71 45% 
Totals 15 - 13 13 - 9 -1 +2 C- C A+ -2 C- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.9 7.4 6.4 2.5 0.4 21.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.3 8.3 5.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 22.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 5.2 7.3 4.1 0.8 0.1 18.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.7 9.2 13.2 16.2 16.7 14.6 10.6 6.0 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-4 57.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
17-5 30.4% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-6 8.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-4 0.7% 34.8% 34.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-5 2.6% 26.8% 26.8% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.9
16-6 6.0% 17.1% 17.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 5.0
15-7 10.6% 11.9% 11.9% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.4
14-8 14.6% 8.0% 8.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 13.4
13-9 16.7% 4.9% 4.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 15.9
12-10 16.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 15.7
11-11 13.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.0
10-12 9.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.1
9-13 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.6
8-14 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
7-15 1.2% 1.2
6-16 0.4% 0.4
5-17 0.1% 0.1
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 13.9 93.9 0.0%