Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#268
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#266
Pace71.8#87
Improvement-6.0#350

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#286
First Shot-5.8#329
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#85
Layup/Dunks-5.3#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#293
Freethrows-1.7#289
Improvement-5.3#358

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#227
First Shot-1.9#239
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#197
Layups/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#24
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement-0.7#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 3.0% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.4% 38.9% 61.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 48 - 69 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 243   Florida International W 80-75 55%     1 - 0 -2.4 -4.5 +1.5
  Nov 16, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 47%     2 - 0 +0.8 +2.3 -1.4
  Nov 19, 2024 128   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 17%     2 - 1 +0.4 +7.6 -7.5
  Nov 22, 2024 311   @ San Diego W 72-67 50%     3 - 1 -1.1 -5.7 +4.4
  Nov 23, 2024 249   Idaho W 82-67 47%     4 - 1 +9.8 +20.3 -7.3
  Nov 26, 2024 29   @ UCLA L 43-88 3%     4 - 2 -28.2 -21.2 -6.2
  Nov 30, 2024 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 58%     5 - 2 +2.0 -1.2 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 10   @ Arizona L 66-102 2%     5 - 3 -15.7 -3.5 -8.9
  Dec 16, 2024 166   @ New Mexico St. L 69-72 21%     5 - 4 -0.5 -2.6 +2.1
  Dec 18, 2024 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-78 40%     5 - 5 -8.3 -5.2 -2.8
  Dec 21, 2024 250   Northern Arizona L 75-83 57%     5 - 6 -15.7 -3.9 -11.6
  Jan 04, 2025 74   @ Grand Canyon L 71-82 8%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -1.0 +2.2 -2.8
  Jan 09, 2025 247   Tarleton St. L 66-74 56%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -15.6 -6.5 -9.1
  Jan 11, 2025 200   Texas Arlington W 73-68 43%     6 - 8 1 - 2 +0.7 -4.7 +5.3
  Jan 18, 2025 162   @ Seattle L 52-75 20%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -20.3 -16.7 -4.3
  Jan 23, 2025 74   Grand Canyon L 59-74 15%     6 - 10 1 - 4 -9.9 -9.7 -0.2
  Jan 25, 2025 161   California Baptist L 60-76 35%     6 - 11 1 - 5 -18.2 -9.8 -9.6
  Jan 30, 2025 200   @ Texas Arlington L 68-70 26%     6 - 12 1 - 6 -1.3 +0.3 -1.9
  Feb 01, 2025 247   @ Tarleton St. L 58-75 37%     6 - 13 1 - 7 -19.6 -11.2 -8.6
  Feb 06, 2025 161   @ California Baptist L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 71-70 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 292   Utah Tech W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   Utah Valley L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 27, 2025 292   @ Utah Tech L 72-73 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 132   @ Utah Valley L 66-76 16%    
  Mar 06, 2025 162   Seattle L 69-73 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.3 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 4.9 1.5 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 2.6 10.7 4.4 0.2 17.9 7th
8th 0.2 5.2 16.2 8.1 0.4 30.1 8th
9th 3.2 11.6 16.7 7.5 0.5 39.5 9th
Total 3.2 11.7 21.9 26.3 21.2 11.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0% 0.0
8-8 0.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-9 3.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-10 11.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.9
5-11 21.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 21.1
4-12 26.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.3
3-13 21.9% 21.9
2-14 11.7% 11.7
1-15 3.2% 3.2
0-16
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%