Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 #329
Expected Predictive Rating -14.9 #345
Pace 73.8 #61
Improvement +1.4 #104

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #329 D D F F C
Defense #312 F C D B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.16 #168 +2.8 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.62 #322 -0.9 #217
Three Pointers 35% #301 0.87 #322 -5.6 #334
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #279 -3.7 #279
Freethrows 13.0 #344 68% #305 8.8 #349
Second Chance 27.0% #281 0.95 #285 0.26 #298
Turnovers 19.6% #335
Total Offense -6.3 #329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.19 #224 -2.8 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.88 #327 -2.5 #338
Three Pointers 35% #332 1.30 #365 -1.7 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #350 -7.0 #350
Freethrows 14.5 #46 71% #137 10.3 #317
Second Chance 32.3% #245 1.02 #162 0.33 #203
Turnovers 14.4% #310
Total Defense -4.3 #312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #167 -0.2% #156
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #296 13.9% #353
Possession Length 17.0 #148 16.3 #43
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #126 0.21 #303
Improvement +0.6 #147 +0.9 #124

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 2.5% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 93.7% 82.5% 94.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 131 - 19
Quad 43 - 64 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 88 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 4%  -11  0 - 1 -7 -8 F B- D +1 F A A
 Sat, Nov 8 220 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 34%  -11  0 - 2 -29 -6 D D- B -22 F C D+
 Sat, Nov 15 257 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 22%  -3  0 - 3 -8 +4 B F C -11 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 10 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1%  -34  0 - 4 -49 -20 F F F -18 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 145 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 9%  -12  0 - 5 -20 +1 A F F -21 F F F
 Fri, Nov 28 206 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 15%  -11  0 - 6 -7 -15 F D+ F +8 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 337 Stetson W 70 - 68 54%  -3  1 - 6 -9 -8 F F D- -1 D D- A
 Sat, Dec 6 182 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 13%  -11  1 - 7 -10 -3 F A+ F -7 F B- C
 Sat, Dec 13 47 @Washington L 69 - 105 2%  -18  1 - 8 -22 +1 A- F B- -23 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 302 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 29%  -0  1 - 9 -13 -13 F F F -0 C+ D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 227 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 18%  -2  1 - 10 0 - 1 -15 -9 F D F -5 C- D C
 Sat, Jan 3 156 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 24%  -1  1 - 11 0 - 2 -12 +3 B- C D+ -15 F A F
 Thu, Jan 8 101 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 5%  -10  1 - 12 0 - 3 -9 +2 C+ C+ C -10 D- C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 147 @California Baptist L 65 - 79 9% 
 Thu, Jan 15 172 Tarleton St. L 74 - 81 27% 
 Sat, Jan 17 202 Abilene Christian L 70 - 75 32% 
 Wed, Jan 21 101 Utah Valley L 69 - 82 12% 
 Sat, Jan 24 227 @Utah Tech L 70 - 80 18% 
 Thu, Jan 29 156 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 77 10% 
 Sat, Jan 31 202 @Abilene Christian L 67 - 78 15% 
 Sat, Feb 7 172 Tarleton St. L 74 - 81 27% 
 Thu, Feb 12 147 California Baptist L 68 - 76 22% 
 Sat, Feb 14 156 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 77 11% 
 Thu, Feb 19 172 @Tarleton St. L 71 - 84 13% 
 Sat, Feb 21 202 @Abilene Christian L 67 - 78 16% 
 Sat, Feb 28 227 Utah Tech L 73 - 77 36% 
 Thu, Mar 5 101 Utah Valley L 69 - 82 13% 
 Sat, Mar 7 147 California Baptist L 68 - 76 22% 
Totals 4 - 24 3 - 15 -11 -6 D D F -4 F C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 7.9 17.4 22.3 19.8 13.3 5.7 1.4 0.1 87.9 7th
Total 7.9 17.4 22.3 20.3 15.0 8.9 4.8 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6
11-7 16.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 3.8% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.3% 0.3
8-10 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 4.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.7
5-13 8.9% 8.9
4-14 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.2
2-16 22.3% 22.3
1-17 17.4% 17.4
0-18 7.9% 7.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.6%