Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #284
Expected Predictive Rating -6.7 #272
Pace 74.0 #50
Improvement +7.5 #5

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #279 C- C- D D- C
Defense #269 D+ C D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #108 1.19 #132 +2.3 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #153 0.63 #336 -0.9 #228
Three Pointers 37% #268 0.94 #277 -3.5 #305
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #238 -2.1 #237
Freethrows 0.25 #334 71% #229 0.17 #334
Second Chance 28.6% #242 1.00 #209 0.29 #242
Turnovers 19.1% #314
Total Offense -4.0 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.15 #160 -1.9 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #127 0.79 #232 -0.8 #251
Three Pointers 36% #320 1.18 #354 -0.3 #194
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #278 -3.0 #279
Freethrows 0.25 #42 71% #98 0.18 #38
Second Chance 32.1% #248 0.98 #108 0.31 #180
Turnovers 13.2% #341
Total Defense -3.0 #269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #184 0.2% #182
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #247 5.8% #296
Possession Length 17.0 #145 16.2 #26
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #183 0.19 #244
Improvement +4.7 #8 +2.8 #41

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.9% 15.5% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.6% 9.2% 37.0%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 103 - 17
Quad 45 - 48 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 77 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 6% -11  0 - 1 -6 -8 F B- D +2 D A A-
 Sat, Nov 8 181 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 40% -11  0 - 2 -28 -5 D D+ B -21 F C- C-
 Sat, Nov 15 241 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 30% -3  0 - 3 -7 +6 B D- C+ -12 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 11 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0 - 4 -49 -19 F D- F -20 F F+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 122 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 12% -12  0 - 5 -18 -0 B F F -17 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 28 220 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 26% -11  0 - 6 -7 -16 F C- F +8 A C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 329 Stetson W 70 - 68 63% -3  1 - 6 -8 -7 D D- D- -1 D+ D B+
 Sat, Dec 6 184 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 21% -11  1 - 7 -10 -2 D A- F+ -7 F C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 41 @Washington L 69 - 105 3% -18  1 - 8 -21 +2 A- F C+ -22 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 313 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 46% -0  1 - 9 -14 -17 F F F +2 B- C- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 210 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 25% -2  1 - 10 0 - 1 -14 -8 D- D F -5 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 163 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 36% -1  1 - 11 0 - 2 -12 +3 B C- D+ -15 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 100 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 9% -10  1 - 12 0 - 3 -9 +2 C+ C C+ -10 D- C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 134 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 14% -6  1 - 13 0 - 4 +2 -6 F A+ F +7 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 226 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 48% +5  2 - 13 1 - 4 -6 +7 C B+ B+ -13 D- F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 267 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 58% +11  3 - 13 2 - 4 +13 -3 C- C D+ +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 100 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 20% +4  4 - 13 3 - 4 +16 +12 A+ A- F+ +3 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 210 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 25% -8  4 - 14 3 - 5 -11 +16 B B- A- -26 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 163 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 18% -14  4 - 15 3 - 6 -16 -7 F+ F C+ -9 D C- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 267 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 76 35% -4  5 - 15 4 - 6 -0 +8 A+ B- F -8 F B F
 Sat, Feb 7 226 Tarleton St. L 78 - 79 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 134 California Baptist L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 163 @Texas Arlington L 66 - 76 18%
 Thu, Feb 19 226 @Tarleton St. L 75 - 81 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 267 @Abilene Christian L 71 - 75 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 210 Utah Tech L 75 - 76 46%
 Thu, Mar 5 100 Utah Valley L 72 - 81 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 134 California Baptist L 70 - 76 30%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 11 -7 -4 C- C- D -3 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 1.5 12.2 18.2 9.2 1.6 0.0 42.7 5th
6th 1.7 11.2 13.9 4.0 0.3 0.0 31.1 6th
7th 4.5 5.3 1.2 0.0 11.0 7th
Total 6.2 18.0 27.5 24.1 15.3 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 16.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.9% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 1.8
9-9 6.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.4
8-10 15.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.1
7-11 24.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.9
6-12 27.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.3
5-13 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.0
4-14 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%