Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#228
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#221
Pace72.6#86
Improvement-2.9#329

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#214
First Shot-3.8#288
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#45
Layup/Dunks-4.6#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#279
Freethrows-1.4#266
Improvement-3.0#344

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#236
First Shot-2.1#248
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#190
Layups/Dunks-1.6#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#32
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+0.1#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 6.7% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 27.5% 50.0% 23.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.1% 62.1% 33.8%
Conference Champion 3.3% 10.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.2% 6.7% 18.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round3.2% 6.6% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 15.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 512 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 262   Florida International W 80-75 68%     1 - 0 -3.4 -5.8 +1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 74%     2 - 0 -4.2 +1.0 -5.1
  Nov 19, 2024 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 19%     2 - 1 +1.6 +8.3 -7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 316   @ San Diego W 72-67 59%     3 - 1 -0.9 -4.2 +3.1
  Nov 23, 2024 259   Idaho W 82-67 57%     4 - 1 +9.7 +20.8 -7.9
  Nov 26, 2024 20   @ UCLA L 43-88 3%     4 - 2 -27.1 -18.5 -7.8
  Nov 30, 2024 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 68%     5 - 2 +1.7 +0.6 +1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 66-102 3%     5 - 3 -16.9 -3.3 -10.3
  Dec 16, 2024 201   @ New Mexico St. L 69-72 32%     5 - 4 -1.8 -4.1 +2.4
  Dec 18, 2024 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-78 38%     5 - 5 -5.6 -4.2 -1.1
  Dec 21, 2024 265   Northern Arizona L 75-83 69%     5 - 6 -16.6 -5.8 -10.6
  Jan 04, 2025 107   @ Grand Canyon L 71-82 15%    
  Jan 09, 2025 285   Tarleton St. W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 164   Texas Arlington L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 143   @ Seattle L 71-78 24%    
  Jan 23, 2025 107   Grand Canyon L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 158   California Baptist L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 77-83 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 285   @ Tarleton St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 212   Abilene Christian W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 145   Utah Valley L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 212   @ Abilene Christian L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 27, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 145   @ Utah Valley L 69-76 26%    
  Mar 06, 2025 143   Seattle L 74-75 45%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.3 0.7 0.1 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.1 1.2 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.8 6.9 1.7 0.1 15.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.1 6.8 1.9 0.1 16.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.3 5.1 1.5 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 9.3 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.5 9.5 13.0 15.2 15.5 13.7 10.5 7.1 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 94.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 83.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
12-4 62.1% 1.1    0.6 0.5 0.1
11-5 24.8% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0
10-6 4.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 32.3% 32.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.7% 24.5% 24.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
12-4 1.8% 23.1% 23.1% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4
11-5 4.0% 15.3% 15.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.4
10-6 7.1% 9.0% 9.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 6.5
9-7 10.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.0
8-8 13.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.3
7-9 15.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 15.2
6-10 15.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 15.1
5-11 13.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.9
4-12 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-13 5.5% 5.5
2-14 2.4% 2.4
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.6 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%