Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#275
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#246
Pace65.0#269
Improvement+6.1#7

Offense
Total Offense-8.5#353
First Shot-5.7#321
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#329
Layup/Dunks-0.5#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#356
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement+2.4#74

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#109
First Shot+2.6#93
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#224
Layups/Dunks+6.5#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#307
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+3.7#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 2.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 2.3% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 81 - 16
Quad 48 - 49 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 45   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -19.8 -8.9 -9.1
  Nov 09, 2024 175   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 40%     0 - 2 -32.8 -20.1 -10.5
  Nov 12, 2024 85   @ Florida St. L 52-72 8%     0 - 3 -10.8 -16.5 +6.4
  Nov 17, 2024 26   @ Baylor L 41-104 2%     0 - 4 -45.2 -25.1 -19.6
  Nov 21, 2024 31   @ Michigan L 49-72 3%     0 - 5 -6.1 -10.6 +2.7
  Nov 29, 2024 256   Iona L 51-62 45%     0 - 6 -16.1 -15.3 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2024 217   Hofstra W 61-59 37%     1 - 6 -1.0 -0.3 -0.4
  Dec 01, 2024 194   Indiana St. L 71-87 33%     1 - 7 -17.9 -5.0 -13.0
  Dec 08, 2024 70   @ Central Florida L 51-66 6%     1 - 8 -4.1 -14.8 +9.6
  Dec 16, 2024 159   @ UTEP L 62-67 19%     1 - 9 -2.1 -2.8 +0.3
  Dec 18, 2024 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-66 9%     1 - 10 +3.4 -4.4 +7.7
  Dec 29, 2024 326   Florida A&M W 70-60 73%     2 - 10 -2.7 -11.0 +8.2
  Jan 04, 2025 226   Texas Arlington W 77-74 49%     3 - 10 1 - 0 -3.2 +0.1 -3.3
  Jan 09, 2025 304   @ Southern Utah W 74-66 47%     4 - 10 2 - 0 +2.5 +0.3 +2.1
  Jan 11, 2025 293   @ Utah Tech L 54-58 44%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -8.9 -16.6 +7.4
  Jan 16, 2025 163   California Baptist W 67-57 37%     5 - 11 3 - 1 +7.1 +6.4 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 90   @ Grand Canyon L 64-88 9%     5 - 12 3 - 2 -15.5 -1.3 -14.5
  Jan 23, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian L 56-67 27%     5 - 13 3 - 3 -11.1 -13.5 +2.7
  Jan 30, 2025 293   Utah Tech W 61-54 65%     6 - 13 4 - 3 -3.4 -10.8 +8.2
  Feb 01, 2025 304   Southern Utah W 75-58 67%     7 - 13 5 - 3 +6.0 -0.5 +6.6
  Feb 06, 2025 146   @ Seattle L 54-91 17%     7 - 14 5 - 4 -33.3 -4.1 -36.2
  Feb 08, 2025 114   @ Utah Valley L 56-81 12%     7 - 15 5 - 5 -18.8 -8.7 -11.5
  Feb 13, 2025 90   Grand Canyon L 60-64 19%     7 - 16 5 - 6 -1.0 -6.5 +5.4
  Feb 15, 2025 146   Seattle W 67-64 33%     8 - 16 6 - 6 +1.2 -4.9 +6.0
  Feb 22, 2025 226   @ Texas Arlington L 57-67 29%     8 - 17 6 - 7 -10.7 -16.9 +6.0
  Feb 27, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 67-52 47%     9 - 17 7 - 7 +9.4 -2.9 +12.6
  Mar 06, 2025 163   @ California Baptist L 48-68 20%     9 - 18 7 - 8 -17.4 -16.4 -3.5
  Mar 08, 2025 114   Utah Valley L 66-71 25%     9 - 19 7 - 9 -4.3 -4.3 +0.0
  Mar 13, 2025 163   California Baptist L 60-66 27%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 100.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.6 99.4
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.2%
Lose Out 72.8%