Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#285
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#309
Pace66.4#246
Improvement+5.4#3

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#341
First Shot-3.3#274
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#337
Layup/Dunks+0.8#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#356
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement+2.7#32

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#163
First Shot+0.8#143
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#247
Layups/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#341
Freethrows-0.5#227
Improvement+2.7#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 14.3% 15.2% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 41.0% 39.1% 49.5%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 83 - 17
Quad 44 - 57 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 41   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -19.5 -8.9 -8.9
  Nov 09, 2024 140   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 32%     0 - 2 -30.9 -19.1 -9.5
  Nov 12, 2024 70   @ Florida St. L 52-72 6%     0 - 3 -9.2 -17.0 +8.6
  Nov 17, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 41-104 2%     0 - 4 -44.0 -26.1 -17.3
  Nov 21, 2024 19   @ Michigan L 49-72 2%     0 - 5 -5.1 -11.3 +4.3
  Nov 29, 2024 247   Iona L 51-62 43%     0 - 6 -15.8 -16.4 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2024 149   Hofstra W 61-59 25%     1 - 6 +2.3 -0.3 +2.9
  Dec 01, 2024 150   Indiana St. L 71-87 25%     1 - 7 -15.7 -4.2 -11.6
  Dec 08, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 51-66 7%     1 - 8 -4.8 -12.3 +6.5
  Dec 16, 2024 139   @ UTEP L 62-67 15%     1 - 9 -0.7 -1.3 +0.1
  Dec 18, 2024 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-66 9%     1 - 10 +3.3 -6.0 +9.2
  Dec 29, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 164   Texas Arlington L 71-74 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 228   @ Southern Utah L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 158   California Baptist L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 107   @ Grand Canyon L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 23, 2025 212   @ Abilene Christian L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 228   Southern Utah L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 143   @ Seattle L 62-73 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 145   @ Utah Valley L 61-71 17%    
  Feb 13, 2025 107   Grand Canyon L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 143   Seattle L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 212   Abilene Christian L 67-68 46%    
  Mar 06, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 62-72 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 145   Utah Valley L 64-68 35%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.0 4.8 0.8 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 6.8 6.8 1.3 0.0 17.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.5 9.0 7.4 1.7 0.1 23.7 8th
9th 1.0 4.0 8.0 9.0 5.2 1.3 0.1 28.5 9th
Total 1.0 4.0 8.9 13.6 16.5 16.8 14.5 10.5 7.1 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 78.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-4 64.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 27.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 6.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 21.9% 21.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 22.2% 22.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.8% 10.3% 10.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7
10-6 1.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8
9-7 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.2 3.8
8-8 7.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.9
7-9 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.4
6-10 14.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.4
5-11 16.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.7
4-12 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
3-13 13.6% 13.6
2-14 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.9
1-15 4.0% 4.0
0-16 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%