Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #226
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #222
Pace 74.3 #45
Improvement -5.1 #345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #250 C- C+ D+ B C-
Defense #191 F+ D+ A+ F+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.05 #299 +0.8 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #68 0.79 #127 +2.8 #58
Three Pointers 29% #359 1.04 #143 -5.6 #336
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #235 -2.0 #234
Freethrows 0.34 #62 76% #60 0.26 #42
Second Chance 32.7% #126 1.04 #153 0.34 #117
Turnovers 18.4% #293
Total Offense -2.9 #250

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.31 #338 -2.4 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #316 0.88 #343 +0.8 #129
Three Pointers 46% #41 1.12 #322 -5.2 #348
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #355 -6.8 #354
Freethrows 0.38 #356 72% #151 0.28 #348
Second Chance 31.3% #212 1.14 #318 0.36 #290
Turnovers 22.4% #7
Total Defense -0.7 #191

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #244 1.1% #272
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #228 12.1% #355
Possession Length 17.6 #211 15.6 #6
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #60 0.16 #149
Improvement -5.1 #357 +0.0 #189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.2% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 8.4% 21.4% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 5.7% 17.0% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.0% 19.1% 39.3%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round2.4% 3.9% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 54 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 39 @SMU L 76 - 96 4% -7  0 - 1 -4 +6 D C D+ -9 D- A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 49 @LSU L 60 - 96 6% -19  0 - 2 -22 -6 F C- B -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 57% +13  1 - 2 +3 +14 A- A+ B- -11 D D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 201 Merrimack W 76 - 62 57% +5  2 - 2 +8 -2 B D+ F+ +9 A C- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 47 @Baylor L 81 - 94 5% -10  2 - 3 +2 +10 A+ A+ F -8 F+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 233 @Rice W 90 - 74 40% +3  3 - 3 +15 +9 A+ F+ C- +5 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 52 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 7% -8  3 - 4 -5 -4 C+ B F -1 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 93% +9  4 - 4 +3 +3 C D F+ -1 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 317 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 80% +14  5 - 4 +11 -7 D A F +16 A+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 163 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 27% +6  6 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +6 B- B- A+ +4 C C A+
 Thu, Jan 1 100 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 30% -2  6 - 5 1 - 1 -4 +8 C- C+ A+ -11 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 134 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 41% +1  7 - 5 2 - 1 +4 +4 B+ F D- -1 F D A+
 Thu, Jan 8 267 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 70% -7  7 - 6 2 - 2 -13 +2 F A+ B -14 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 284 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 52% -5  7 - 7 2 - 3 -5 +7 C A- F -12 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 210 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 36% -6  7 - 8 2 - 4 -4 -1 D- D- A+ -3 F+ C- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 163 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 27% -1  7 - 9 2 - 5 -4 -1 C D F -3 D C C
 Thu, Jan 29 100 Utah Valley L 55 - 83 30% -4  7 - 10 2 - 6 -26 -17 F C- F -8 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 210 Utah Tech L 59 - 65 59% -1  7 - 11 2 - 7 -12 -10 F A- F -2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 134 @California Baptist L 68 - 76 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 284 @Southern Utah W 79 - 78 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 267 @Abilene Christian L 73 - 74 48%
 Mon, Feb 16 267 Abilene Christian W 76 - 71 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 284 Southern Utah W 81 - 75 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 210 Utah Tech W 76 - 74 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 100 @Utah Valley L 71 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 134 @California Baptist L 68 - 76 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 163 Texas Arlington L 70 - 71 49%
Totals 11 - 16 6 - 12 -4 -3 C- C+ D+ -1 F+ D+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.8 0.4 9.5 4th
5th 1.4 10.8 16.1 6.9 1.0 0.0 36.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 12.6 13.1 3.5 0.2 32.0 6th
7th 0.6 3.8 8.2 6.8 1.2 0.0 20.7 7th
Total 0.6 3.9 10.8 20.8 25.2 21.3 11.7 4.5 1.2 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 31.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.8% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 1.2% 13.1% 13.1% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
9-9 4.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.2
8-10 11.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 11.0
7-11 21.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.2 0.6 20.6
6-12 25.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.5 24.6
5-13 20.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 20.5
4-14 10.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.7
3-15 3.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.9
2-16 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.4 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%