Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 230
Results Rating -3.4 226
Pace 72.5 74
Improvement -4.9 343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 291 D+ C D- B- D+
Defense C 149 D D A+ F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 70 D+ 54% 276 +0.9 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 31 C 39% 148 +3.1 45
Three Pointers 29% 358 D+ 32% 261 -6.9 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 278 D+ -2.1 257
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 266
Second Chance C 30.0% 194 C 1.02 188 C 0.31 189
Turnovers D- 19.5% 327
Freethrows C+ 0.33 122 B 75% 77 B- 0.25 96
Total Offense D+ -4.6 291

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 35% 341 D+ 12.5% 273
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 124 C 5.5% 217
Three Pointers C+ 85% 159 B- 0.6% 110
Total F+ 45% 353 D 7.1% 322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 257 D+ 62% 292 +0.1 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 282 D 42% 306 -0.6 142
Three Pointers 46% 35 D 37% 302 +4.8 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 219 D +3.9 323
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 320
Second Chance D 33.5% 302 D+ 1.09 269 D 0.36 307
Turnovers A+ 22.8% 4
Freethrows F+ 0.38 352 C- 73% 239 F+ 0.28 350
Total Defense C +0.8 149

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 228 C 11.2% 161
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 186 C- 4.0% 222
Three Pointers D+ 87% 284 D 0.2% 337
Total D+ 60% 284 C- 4.8% 235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 188 16.0 14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 61 0.17 184
Improvement -6.9 #364 +2.0 #77

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 256 230 199
Results Rating Rank 264 222 190
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 1% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 59% 20% 64%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 33 - 53 - 13
Quad 48 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 31 @SMU L 76 - 96 3% -7  3% 0 - 1 C- -2 C+ +3 D C D D+ -4 D A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 53 @LSU L 60 - 96 7% -19  2% 0 - 2 F -23 F+ -9 F D+ B+ F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 205 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 56% +13  98% 1 - 2 C+ +3 A +11 A- A+ B- F+ -9 D D- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 160 Merrimack W 76 - 62 47% +5  81% 2 - 2 B +11 D+ -3 B+ D F A+ +13 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 44 @Baylor L 81 - 94 6% -10  2% 2 - 3 C +1 B +7 A A+ F D -5 F+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 232 @Rice W 90 - 74 39% +3  49% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +7 A+ F+ D+ A- +7 D+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 1 43 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 5% -8  8% 3 - 4 C- -3 D -6 C+ B- F B +4 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 93% +9  88% 4 - 4 C+ +4 C- -1 C+ F+ F B- +3 F F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 328 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 83% +14  79% 5 - 4 B +10 F+ -9 D- A F A+ +17 A+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 180 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 30% +6  91% 6 - 4 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 B- C+ A+ B+ +6 C C A+
 Thu, Jan 1 95 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 26% -2  26% 6 - 5 1 - 1 C- -3 B +6 D+ C+ A+ F+ -8 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 138 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 42% +1  61% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ F+ F+ C+ +0 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 245 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 64% -7  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -11 C +1 F A+ A- F -13 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 278 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 49% -5  3% 7 - 7 2 - 3 C- -5 B- +4 C A F F+ -8 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 189 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 31% -6  0% 7 - 8 2 - 4 C- -3 D -4 D- F+ A C+ +1 F+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 180 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 30% -1  29% 7 - 9 2 - 5 D+ -5 D -4 C D- F C -1 D C- C
 Thu, Jan 29 95 Utah Valley L 55 - 83 26% -4  38% 7 - 10 2 - 6 F -25 F -19 F C F D -5 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 189 Utah Tech L 59 - 65 54% -1  46% 7 - 11 2 - 7 D -11 F -13 F A- F B- +2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 138 @California Baptist L 55 - 56 22% +1  58% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C+ +3 F -12 C F F A+ +15 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 278 @Southern Utah W 62 - 59 49% +1  53% 8 - 12 3 - 8 C -1 F -14 F+ D F A+ +14 A- C- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 245 @Abilene Christian L 59 - 73 41% +3  59% 8 - 13 3 - 9 F+ -15 F -14 D F F C- -2 F F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 245 Abilene Christian W 65 - 62 OT 64% -1  26% 9 - 13 4 - 9 C- -4 F -16 F F D A +11 B+ B+ A+
 Thu, Feb 19 278 Southern Utah W 78 - 74 71% +1  66% 10 - 13 5 - 9 D+ -6 C +1 B- D+ D+ D- -7 C- D B+
 Sat, Feb 21 189 Utah Tech L 72 - 80 54% +2  68% 10 - 14 5 - 10 D- -13 C- -1 F+ B- A F -13 B- F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 95 @Utah Valley L 67 - 80 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 138 @California Baptist L 65 - 73 23%
 Thu, Mar 5 180 Texas Arlington W 68 - 67 51%
Totals 11 - 16 6 - 12 -4 D+ -5 B D+ D+ C +1 D+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C D+ D+ 43% 56% 29% D+ D+ C C C D- C+ B B- C D+ D D D 36% 17% 46% C- D D D+ D A+ F+ C- F+
1.02 54% 39% 32% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.0 .31 19% .33 75% .25 1.07 62% 42% 37% +4 0 1.11 33% 1.1 .36 23% .38 73% .24
Nov
3		 SMU C+ A+ F B+ C- 22% 43% 35% F D C C- C D A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F+ F+ 30% 33% 37% A D A A- A+ C+ F D+ F
1.04 80% 15% 38% -3 -4 0.87 30% 0.9 .27 21% .61 83% .50 1.32 79% 53% 41% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.9 .25 15% .68 79% .53
Nov
5		 LSU F+ F F F+ F 43% 17% 40% B F C- D+ D+ B+ C B+ C+ F F F F F 54% 10% 37% F F F D F A+ F C+ F
0.88 43% 11% 29% -14 +1 0.75 27% 0.8 .23 13% .30 72% .22 1.41 95% 50% 47% +28 +3 1.63 44% 1.3 .56 22% .55 76% .41
Nov
8		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A F A+ A+ A 37% 29% 34% F+ A- B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ F+ B+ C- F+ D 45% 17% 38% D+ D F C D- C+ F B F
1.23 40% 58% 50% +8 -1 1.15 35% 1.4 .50 19% .66 78% .52 1.11 48% 38% 39% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.9 .35 19% .52 62% .32
Nov
11		 Merrimack D+ C+ A+ F A 45% 37% 18% F+ B+ C+ F+ D F A C A A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% D A+ F A+ C- A+ F C F
1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32 0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36
Nov
14		 Baylor B A+ A+ C A+ 10% 71% 18% F A A+ F A+ F C+ A+ B+ D D- F F+ F 15% 33% 52% A- F+ B- F F A+ C- F F+
1.11 100% 54% 33% +16 -9 1.16 60% 0.8 .47 29% .27 86% .23 1.29 71% 63% 40% +15 -3 1.25 36% 1.9 .68 21% .34 85% .29
Nov
20		 Rice B A+ B B- A+ 50% 34% 16% B- A+ D+ F F+ D+ A- C+ A- A- F A D D 24% 27% 49% C D+ A- A+ A+ B- F A+ B-
1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31 0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18
Dec
1		 Cincinnati D F B A+ C+ 41% 20% 39% B C+ D- A+ B- F C+ F D+ B B- A+ F F 17% 12% 71% C+ F F D+ F A+ C- A C+
0.82 33% 44% 41% -5 0 0.93 17% 1.8 .31 27% .27 57% .15 1.07 57% 20% 47% +11 0 1.24 44% 1.1 .47 30% .30 60% .18
Dec
16		 Mississippi Valley C- C F A+ C 51% 14% 35% B+ C+ D D- F+ F D+ A+ B+ B- F+ F C+ F 43% 27% 30% F F B- F F+ A+ B- B B
1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34 0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16
Dec
19		 Florida A&M F+ F A A+ F 61% 20% 18% B D- B- A+ A F B+ D+ B A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 45% F A+ B+ F C A+ F B F
1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29 0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27
Dec
29		 Texas Arlington C+ B- C+ C+ B+ 35% 39% 26% F+ B- F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F D- B+ B+ C+ C- C 39% 21% 39% B- C C+ D+ C A+ F C F
1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22 0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42
Jan
1		 Utah Valley B F+ A+ D- D+ 47% 22% 31% C+ D+ D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D- B- D F+ 59% 7% 35% F F+ C B- C+ B- F F+ F
1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42 1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46
Jan
3		 California Baptist C+ A D- A+ A+ 33% 41% 26% F B+ D F F+ F+ A+ C+ A+ C+ F F D F 46% 13% 41% D F D D- D- A+ D C D+
1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48 1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24
Jan
8		 Abilene Christian C F F+ F F 67% 22% 11% B F A- A+ A+ A- B+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 43% 23% 34% D+ F F F F A- F D+ F
1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46 1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35
Jan
15		 Southern Utah B- D- D- A+ C- 61% 18% 21% A- C D+ A+ A F A+ B+ A+ F+ F+ C+ D- F 40% 11% 49% F+ F C- F F C F D+ F
1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28 1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43
Jan
17		 Utah Tech D D- A+ F F 57% 17% 26% B D- B+ F F+ A A- F C C+ F A+ C- F+ 38% 11% 51% D F+ A- F C A+ F D+ F
1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21 1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32
Jan
21		 Texas Arlington D C+ D F C 52% 34% 14% C C B F D- F C+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ D+ 49% 8% 44% F D B+ F C- C F B- F
0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36 1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45
Jan
29		 Utah Valley F F F B- F 37% 30% 33% D- F C+ D+ C F A+ D A+ D C- C- F F 51% 18% 31% B- F+ F+ F F A+ C- F F
0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38 1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29
Jan
31		 Utah Tech F F B- F F 46% 10% 44% B F A+ C- A- F B+ A+ A B- F C F F 30% 17% 52% B- F A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
0.93 45% 40% 14% -19 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28 1.02 71% 38% 50% +16 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06
Feb
5		 California Baptist F A+ C+ F C+ 45% 39% 16% F+ C F F+ F F F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 27% 30% B+ A+ F B+ C- A+ F F F
0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09 0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 Southern Utah F F A D+ F+ 50% 32% 18% D+ F+ D D D F D+ D D A+ A+ A- D- A- 33% 23% 44% B- A- F A- C- A+ A F B
0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15 0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Abilene Christian F D A+ D+ D 48% 24% 29% D+ D D F F F D F F C- D B- D- F 33% 15% 53% D F F D+ F A+ F F F
0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22 1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52
Feb
16		 Abilene Christian F B- B F D- 35% 35% 30% F F F F F D A+ C+ A+ A F B- A+ B 38% 32% 30% B+ B+ F+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ C-
0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46 0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25
Feb
19		 Southern Utah C A C F B- 62% 27% 11% B- B- B- F D+ D+ B D- C+ D- A+ A+ F C- 35% 21% 44% C+ C- F A- D B+ F F+ F
1.17 71% 40% 17% +5 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 15% .30 65% .19 1.11 33% 22% 53% 0 0 1.02 42% 0.8 .33 22% .52 78% .40
Feb
21		 Utah Tech C- A- F C- D 26% 38% 36% F F+ D A+ B- A D+ A+ B- F C C- C+ C+ 21% 21% 57% A B- F F F C+ F F F
1.11 71% 20% 32% -5 -3 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 11% .26 87% .22 1.23 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.8 .67 17% .37 85% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4.9 1.4 6.3 4th
5th 3.2 25.3 11.1 0.3 39.9 5th
6th 14.5 18.2 0.7 33.4 6th
7th 16.7 3.6 0.0 20.3 7th
Total 34.4 47.2 16.7 1.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.7% 6.6% 6.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.6
7-11 16.7% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.2 0.5 16.1
6-12 47.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 46.3
5-13 34.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 34.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.8 98.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.7 29.4 70.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 14.8%