Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #172
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 #141
Pace 74.3 #54
Improvement +0.1 #176

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #188 C B+ C- B+ D
Defense #181 F D- A+ F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.06 #288 +0.4 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #38 0.82 #98 +4.3 #21
Three Pointers 28% #362 1.12 #50 -5.1 #324
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #189 -0.4 #188
Freethrows 20.1 #56 75% #104 15.1 #40
Second Chance 32.3% #137 1.21 #29 0.39 #61
Turnovers 17.3% #223
Total Offense -0.6 #188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.26 #302 -1.3 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #280 0.92 #351 -0.2 #202
Three Pointers 46% #61 1.10 #293 -4.3 #325
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #334 -5.8 #334
Freethrows 22.1 #345 72% #177 16.0 #25
Second Chance 32.2% #239 1.18 #317 0.38 #306
Turnovers 22.1% #6
Total Defense -0.4 #181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #285 0.7% #227
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #162 10.6% #336
Possession Length 17.7 #211 15.6 #14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #40 0.15 #98
Improvement -1.0 #254 +1.1 #108

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 12.3% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 70.4% 77.8% 50.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 74.9% 46.3%
Conference Champion 7.9% 9.7% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.8% 6.8%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round11.0% 12.2% 7.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 11
Quad 410 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 28 @SMU L 76 - 96 5%  -7  0 - 1 -3 +6 D C D+ -8 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 42 @LSU L 60 - 96 8%  -19  0 - 2 -21 -5 F C+ B -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 64%  +13  1 - 2 +3 +14 A+ A+ C -10 F C- B
 Tue, Nov 11 237 Merrimack W 76 - 62 72%  +5  2 - 2 +7 -3 B D F +9 A+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 14 32 @Baylor L 81 - 94 6%  -10  2 - 3 +4 +11 A+ A+ F -7 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 245 @Rice W 90 - 74 53%  +3  3 - 3 +14 +11 A+ D- C- +3 D A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 1 58 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 11%  -8  3 - 4 -6 -4 C B F -1 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 96%  +9  4 - 4 +3 +2 C F F -1 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 345 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 89%  +14  5 - 4 +9 -9 F A+ F +16 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 156 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 35%  +6  6 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +6 B- B+ A+ +4 C C A+
 Thu, Jan 1 101 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 38%  -2  6 - 5 1 - 1 -4 +8 C- B- A+ -11 F C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 147 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 55%  +1  7 - 5 2 - 1 +3 +3 B+ F F -0 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 202 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 66%  -7  7 - 6 2 - 2 -9 +3 F A+ B -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 329 @Southern Utah W 81 - 74 73% 
 Sat, Jan 17 227 @Utah Tech L 75 - 76 48% 
 Wed, Jan 21 156 @Texas Arlington L 69 - 73 35% 
 Sat, Jan 24 202 Abilene Christian W 75 - 71 65% 
 Thu, Jan 29 101 Utah Valley L 75 - 78 39% 
 Sat, Jan 31 227 Utah Tech W 79 - 73 70% 
 Thu, Feb 5 147 @California Baptist L 71 - 76 33% 
 Sat, Feb 7 329 @Southern Utah W 81 - 74 73% 
 Sat, Feb 14 202 @Abilene Christian L 72 - 74 44% 
 Thu, Feb 19 329 Southern Utah W 84 - 71 87% 
 Sat, Feb 21 227 Utah Tech W 79 - 73 70% 
 Thu, Feb 26 101 @Utah Valley L 72 - 81 20% 
 Sat, Feb 28 147 @California Baptist L 71 - 76 34% 
 Thu, Mar 5 156 Texas Arlington W 72 - 70 57% 
Totals 14 - 13 9 - 9 -1 -1 C B+ C- +0 F D- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 7.7 6.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.1 9.9 5.8 1.1 0.0 21.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.7 9.6 4.6 0.5 20.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.9 7.6 3.1 0.2 17.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.2 4.0 1.5 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.4 9.7 14.3 17.1 17.7 14.6 9.9 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 99.1% 0.6    0.5 0.0
14-4 83.2% 1.7    1.2 0.4
13-5 53.2% 2.8    1.3 1.3 0.1
12-6 22.8% 2.3    0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 3.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.6% 36.0% 36.0% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 2.0% 33.4% 33.4% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.3
13-5 5.3% 26.5% 26.5% 13.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 3.9
12-6 9.9% 22.8% 22.8% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 7.7
11-7 14.6% 16.6% 16.6% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.1
10-8 17.7% 10.5% 10.5% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 15.9
9-9 17.1% 6.3% 6.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 16.0
8-10 14.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 13.6
7-11 9.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.5
6-12 5.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.2
5-13 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 14.0 88.9 0.0%