Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #163
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #128
Pace 66.4 #244
Improvement +0.6 #159

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #269 D C+ F+ B B-
Defense #80 B C+ C D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #36 0.99 #344 -0.2 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.74 #197 -0.8 #222
Three Pointers 37% #273 0.94 #283 -3.7 #308
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #317 -4.6 #317
Freethrows 0.34 #60 73% #145 0.25 #71
Second Chance 36.9% #31 0.92 #314 0.34 #122
Turnovers 20.4% #350
Total Offense -3.7 #269

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.20 #237 -1.4 #224
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #12 0.71 #102 -2.5 #342
Three Pointers 32% #359 0.81 #4 +8.0 #1
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #55 +4.2 #55
Freethrows 0.37 #336 71% #89 0.26 #324
Second Chance 26.9% #59 1.10 #292 0.30 #132
Turnovers 17.3% #147
Total Defense +3.4 #80

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #104 -1.9% #42
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.3% #335 -6.3% #63
Possession Length 19.2 #341 16.3 #35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.25 #360
Improvement +0.9 #131 -0.3 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 17.2% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 95.5% 99.0% 92.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 97.9% 85.5%
Conference Champion 14.4% 22.1% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round14.8% 17.2% 12.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 37 - 48 - 9
Quad 410 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 45 @New Mexico L 56 - 74 9% -12  0 - 1 -3 -10 F+ B- F +8 B- A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 182 Missouri St. W 67 - 49 66% +7  1 - 1 +13 -6 C F+ F+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 269 @Evansville W 84 - 76 61% +3  2 - 1 +5 +14 A+ A+ F -9 C+ F D
 Fri, Nov 21 212 Campbell L 67 - 71 61% +4  2 - 2 -7 -13 F D+ F+ +6 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 221 @Weber St. W 74 - 73 50% +0  3 - 2 +1 +4 C D+ D+ -3 C+ F+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 105 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 61 44% -3  4 - 2 +6 +4 C+ C- F +3 B+ C+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 168 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 83 40% -10  4 - 3 -18 -12 F A- D+ -5 D A- C
 Thu, Dec 11 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 58 - 50 43% +0  5 - 3 +9 -1 D B F +12 A A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 86 @Stanford L 60 - 76 18% -12  5 - 4 -7 -6 C- F D+ -1 C- C B
 Mon, Dec 22 335 @Oral Roberts W 69 - 57 77% +6  6 - 4 +4 -4 D+ B- F +9 A+ C B+
 Mon, Dec 29 226 Tarleton St. L 63 - 69 73% -6  6 - 5 0 - 1 -13 -8 F C- F+ -5 C- C F
 Thu, Jan 1 134 California Baptist W 63 - 51 54% +4  7 - 5 1 - 1 +11 -3 F B- C- +15 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 284 @Southern Utah W 86 - 77 64% +1  8 - 5 2 - 1 +5 +8 A- D F -4 C- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 267 Abilene Christian W 82 - 72 80% +6  9 - 5 3 - 1 +1 +11 C- A+ B -10 F+ D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 210 @Utah Tech W 56 - 52 49% +5  10 - 5 4 - 1 +4 -15 F F F +19 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 100 @Utah Valley L 74 - 86 22% -14  10 - 6 4 - 2 -4 +7 D- A+ D -11 C+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 226 Tarleton St. W 71 - 64 73% +1  11 - 6 5 - 2 +0 -1 D- C B- +2 C+ A A+
 Thu, Jan 29 284 Southern Utah W 80 - 61 82% +14  12 - 6 6 - 2 +9 +2 D+ B- F+ +7 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 134 California Baptist L 77 - 87 OT 54% -5  12 - 7 6 - 3 -11 -3 D C- D+ -7 C C- F+
 Thu, Feb 5 210 @Utah Tech L 68 - 69 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 100 @Utah Valley L 66 - 74 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 267 @Abilene Christian W 68 - 65 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 284 Southern Utah W 76 - 66 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 210 Utah Tech W 72 - 66 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 100 Utah Valley L 69 - 71 43%
 Thu, Feb 26 134 @California Baptist L 64 - 69 32%
 Thu, Mar 5 226 @Tarleton St. W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 267 @Abilene Christian W 68 - 65 60%
Totals 17 - 11 11 - 7 +0 -4 D C+ F+ +3 B C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.6 3.0 0.4 14.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 9.0 10.4 2.8 0.1 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.0 15.2 14.3 4.1 0.1 39.0 3rd
4th 0.7 4.7 8.4 5.1 0.6 19.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.3 1.7 6.4 13.7 22.0 24.4 18.3 9.6 3.1 0.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4
14-4 97.1% 3.0    2.5 0.6
13-5 69.0% 6.6    3.0 3.0 0.6
12-6 20.8% 3.8    0.6 1.8 1.2 0.1
11-7 2.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 6.5 5.6 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 43.9% 43.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
14-4 3.1% 33.7% 33.7% 13.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.1
13-5 9.6% 27.3% 27.3% 13.1 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.0 7.0
12-6 18.3% 21.1% 21.1% 13.5 0.1 1.8 1.8 0.2 14.4
11-7 24.4% 14.0% 14.0% 13.8 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 21.0
10-8 22.0% 10.1% 10.1% 14.1 0.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 19.8
9-9 13.7% 7.9% 7.9% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 12.6
8-10 6.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 6.1
7-11 1.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.6
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 13.7 85.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.1 19.4 52.8 27.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%