Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#164
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#236
Pace74.8#48
Improvement+1.2#112

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#127
First Shot+0.5#160
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#106
Layup/Dunks-4.1#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#16
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement-2.0#315

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#232
First Shot+1.0#137
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#352
Layups/Dunks-0.8#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#150
Freethrows-1.3#274
Improvement+3.2#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 14.4% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 39.9% 57.5% 32.3%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 76.0% 66.9%
Conference Champion 13.0% 16.6% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 3.0% 5.1%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round11.4% 14.2% 10.1%
Second Round0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 74 - 13
Quad 410 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 102   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 43%     0 - 1 -13.4 +9.0 -23.1
  Nov 13, 2024 71   @ USC L 95-98 15%     0 - 2 +7.8 +16.3 -8.1
  Nov 19, 2024 171   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 39%     0 - 3 -7.6 -3.1 -4.4
  Nov 26, 2024 138   Murray St. L 66-79 44%     0 - 4 -11.7 -7.5 -3.9
  Nov 27, 2024 283   Austin Peay W 68-58 73%     1 - 4 +3.4 +2.9 +1.6
  Nov 28, 2024 93   Rhode Island L 78-83 29%     1 - 5 +0.5 +4.2 -3.5
  Dec 02, 2024 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 84-70 76%     2 - 5 +6.5 +5.6 +0.3
  Dec 12, 2024 105   @ Arkansas St. L 79-83 23%     2 - 6 +3.4 +9.5 -6.1
  Dec 14, 2024 334   Louisiana Monroe W 77-68 89%     3 - 6 -4.5 -0.1 -4.3
  Dec 18, 2024 315   Evansville W 80-54 86%     4 - 6 +14.2 +7.5 +8.3
  Dec 21, 2024 72   @ Liberty L 56-79 15%     4 - 7 -12.3 -8.1 -5.1
  Dec 29, 2024 126   @ Texas St. L 73-78 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 286   @ Tarleton St. W 74-71 63%    
  Jan 09, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 79-76 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 227   @ Southern Utah W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 16, 2025 145   Utah Valley W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 143   Seattle W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 212   @ Abilene Christian L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 227   Southern Utah W 83-77 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 82-73 81%    
  Feb 06, 2025 145   @ Utah Valley L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 143   @ Seattle L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 158   California Baptist W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   Grand Canyon L 79-81 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 286   Tarleton St. W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 107   @ Grand Canyon L 76-84 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 212   Abilene Christian W 79-74 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 75-78 38%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.1 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 13.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.2 6.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 6.1 6.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.6 6.9 1.8 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.5 1.7 0.1 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.3 1.5 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.0 0.8 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.3 8.7 12.2 14.7 15.9 14.2 11.1 7.3 4.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 97.6% 1.6    1.5 0.2
13-3 85.4% 3.6    2.6 1.0 0.0
12-4 55.9% 4.1    2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
11-5 23.8% 2.7    0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 7.2 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 46.7% 46.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 42.3% 42.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.7% 42.1% 42.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0
13-3 4.2% 33.3% 33.3% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8
12-4 7.3% 27.4% 27.4% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.3
11-5 11.1% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.1 8.7
10-6 14.2% 14.9% 14.9% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.1 12.1
9-7 15.9% 9.2% 9.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.4 14.4
8-8 14.7% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 14.1
7-9 12.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.9
6-10 8.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 8.6
5-11 5.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.2
4-12 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-13 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 4.3 1.5 88.4 0.0%