Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #227
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #201
Pace 67.6 #228
Improvement +3.0 #43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 B- F C- F C
Defense #242 D+ C C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.31 #48 +1.6 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #210 0.86 #50 +0.3 #162
Three Pointers 45% #114 0.98 #225 +1.2 #135
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #95 +3.1 #94
Freethrows 14.3 #320 68% #306 9.7 #333
Second Chance 28.0% #263 0.81 #359 0.23 #342
Turnovers 17.4% #231
Total Offense -1.4 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #93 1.31 #327 -5.1 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #261 0.74 #159 +1.2 #106
Three Pointers 41% #205 0.96 #122 +1.3 #135
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #266 -2.6 #266
Freethrows 17.3 #186 72% #153 12.4 #183
Second Chance 32.4% #251 0.98 #98 0.32 #172
Turnovers 16.4% #194
Total Defense -2.2 #242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #173 1.2% #282
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.9% #88 3.9% #250
Possession Length 17.5 #191 17.9 #279
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #246 0.18 #203
Improvement +4.2 #7 -1.2 #258

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 7.3% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 18.0% 36.0% 15.2%
.500 or above in Conference 43.1% 67.1% 39.3%
Conference Champion 4.1% 13.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.6% 5.8%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round4.1% 7.0% 3.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 13.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 35 - 75 - 15
Quad 48 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 290 @South Dakota W 81 - 79 OT 52%  +2  1 - 0 -2 -9 C- F D- +6 A+ B D+
 Fri, Nov 7 2 @Arizona L 67 - 93 1%  -11  1 - 1 +1 +7 C+ B- C -6 F A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 9 88 @Arizona St. L 66 - 81 11%  -11  1 - 2 -5 -5 D+ C D -1 A- F F
 Wed, Nov 12 311 Manhattan L 75 - 79 70%  -3  1 - 3 -13 +2 F C A- -15 F F B
 Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 75 2OT 96%  +3  2 - 3 -18 -5 D- F C+ -13 F A F
 Sat, Nov 15 98 @Hawaii L 62 - 68 14%  -6  2 - 4 +2 -3 B F D- +5 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 154 Portland St. L 63 - 68 48%  -1  2 - 5 -8 -10 C+ F C +2 B+ C+ A
 Sat, Nov 29 295 UC Riverside W 77 - 69 75%  +4  3 - 5 -3 +7 B C B -9 D+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 61 @Santa Clara L 80 - 90 8%  -12  3 - 6 +2 +5 A+ F F -2 C C B+
 Sat, Dec 20 212 @Weber St. W 82 - 80 36%  +1  4 - 6 +2 +12 A+ F B -10 F A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 37 @Creighton L 69 - 92 4%  -11  4 - 7 -7 +2 A B F -8 F A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 329 Southern Utah W 80 - 66 82%  +2  5 - 7 1 - 0 +0 -1 D+ D D- +1 C+ C B-
 Thu, Jan 1 202 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 64 34%  +14  6 - 7 2 - 0 +16 +12 A+ D- D +4 D- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 147 @California Baptist L 72 - 84 24%  -7  6 - 8 2 - 1 -8 +10 A+ F C+ -20 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 101 @Utah Valley L 68 - 80 14% 
 Thu, Jan 15 156 Texas Arlington L 68 - 69 48% 
 Sat, Jan 17 172 Tarleton St. W 76 - 75 52% 
 Wed, Jan 21 147 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 24% 
 Sat, Jan 24 329 Southern Utah W 80 - 70 82% 
 Thu, Jan 29 202 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 73 35% 
 Sat, Jan 31 172 @Tarleton St. L 73 - 79 30% 
 Thu, Feb 5 156 Texas Arlington L 68 - 69 48% 
 Thu, Feb 12 101 Utah Valley L 71 - 77 30% 
 Sat, Feb 14 147 California Baptist L 70 - 71 45% 
 Thu, Feb 19 156 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 72 28% 
 Sat, Feb 21 172 @Tarleton St. L 73 - 79 30% 
 Thu, Feb 26 202 Abilene Christian W 72 - 70 56% 
 Sat, Feb 28 329 @Southern Utah W 77 - 73 64% 
 Sat, Mar 7 101 Utah Valley L 71 - 77 30% 
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4 -1 B- F C- -2 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.0 8.4 2.8 0.2 17.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.9 9.4 3.3 0.2 22.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.4 9.7 7.9 2.6 0.1 29.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 7th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.2 7.5 12.2 15.6 17.4 15.5 12.2 8.0 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 90.5% 0.7    0.6 0.1
13-5 64.9% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1
12-6 30.5% 1.3    0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 5.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 20.9% 20.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 2.1% 21.3% 21.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6
12-6 4.3% 16.7% 16.7% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 3.6
11-7 8.0% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 7.0
10-8 12.2% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 11.5
9-9 15.5% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.1 0.4 15.0
8-10 17.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 17.0
7-11 15.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 15.4
6-12 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.0
5-13 7.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.4
4-14 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.0 95.6 0.0%