IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#287
Expected Predictive Rating	-9.6	#317

Pace	69.0	#182
Improvement	+2.6	#50

Offense
Total Offense	-2.8	#249

First Shot	-0.3	#183
After Offensive Rebound	-2.5	#314

Layup/Dunks	+1.1	#141
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.7	#207
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.0	#177
Freethrows	-0.7	#226

Improvement	+2.8	#27

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#295

First Shot	-1.8	#240
After Offensive Rebounds	-2.1	#325

Layups/Dunks	-3.9	#319
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.9	#264
3 Pt Jumpshots	+2.8	#62
Freethrows	+0.2	#174

Improvement	-0.2	#205

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.7%	1.0%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	0.4%	0.8%	0.1%
.500 or above in Conference	13.7%	17.6%	11.7%
Conference Champion	0.6%	0.9%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	40.9%	35.4%	43.7%

First Four	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
First Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	2 - 10	2 - 16
Quad 4	6 - 6	8 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	69	@ Oregon St.	L	57-80	6%	0 - 1			-12.1	-9.6	-2.6
Nov 09, 2024	201	New Mexico St.	L	63-75	43%	0 - 2			-16.8	-10.0	-7.1
Nov 16, 2024	159	@ Wyoming	L	69-86	18%	0 - 3			-14.0	-4.8	-8.6
Nov 22, 2024	65	@ Utah	L	53-84	6%	0 - 4			-19.9	-19.0	+1.8
Nov 24, 2024	153	Cal St. Northridge	L	79-89	25%	0 - 5			-9.9	+5.8	-15.4
Nov 25, 2024	191	@ Montana	L	66-69	22%	0 - 6			-1.6	-4.4	+2.7
Nov 26, 2024	319	Denver	W	68-54	59%	1 - 6			+5.1	-2.0	+8.9
Nov 30, 2024	251	@ Portland St.	L	68-71	32%	1 - 7			-4.9	-2.8	-2.2
Dec 03, 2024	58	@ Boise St.	L	64-87	5%	1 - 8			-10.6	+3.3	-16.0
Dec 07, 2024	47	@ Utah St.	L	62-92	4%	1 - 9			-16.2	-6.6	-8.5
Dec 13, 2024	210	Weber St.	L	71-73	45%	1 - 10			-7.5	+4.1	-11.9
Dec 19, 2024	236	South Dakota	W	92-87	52%	2 - 10			-2.2	+6.8	-9.1
Dec 30, 2024	262	@ Florida International	L	72-76	34%
Jan 09, 2025	164	Texas Arlington	L	76-79	37%
Jan 11, 2025	285	Tarleton St.	W	70-67	61%
Jan 16, 2025	143	@ Seattle	L	67-78	16%
Jan 18, 2025	145	@ Utah Valley	L	66-76	17%
Jan 25, 2025	107	Grand Canyon	L	71-79	23%
Jan 30, 2025	285	@ Tarleton St.	L	67-70	39%
Feb 01, 2025	164	@ Texas Arlington	L	73-82	19%
Feb 06, 2025	212	Abilene Christian	L	72-73	46%
Feb 13, 2025	228	@ Southern Utah	L	72-78	29%
Feb 15, 2025	158	@ California Baptist	L	67-77	19%
Feb 20, 2025	145	Utah Valley	L	69-73	35%
Feb 22, 2025	212	@ Abilene Christian	L	69-76	26%
Feb 27, 2025	228	Southern Utah	L	75-76	49%
Mar 01, 2025	158	California Baptist	L	70-74	37%
Mar 06, 2025	107	@ Grand Canyon	L	68-82	10%
Mar 08, 2025	143	Seattle	L	70-75	34%
Projected Record						7 - 22	5 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.6	1st
2nd									0.0	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0					1.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.5	1.6	0.8	0.1							3.1	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	2.7	1.5	0.2	0.0							5.0	4th
5th						0.0	0.9	3.9	2.9	0.4	0.0								8.0	5th
6th					0.0	1.3	5.0	4.8	0.7	0.0									11.8	6th
7th				0.2	2.1	6.9	6.8	1.3	0.0										17.3	7th
8th		0.0	0.9	4.7	9.1	7.4	1.8	0.1											24.0	8th
9th	0.9	3.8	8.0	9.0	5.3	1.4	0.1												28.5	9th

Total	0.9	3.9	8.8	13.9	16.6	17.0	14.5	10.7	6.9	3.8	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
13-3	89.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0
12-4	64.4%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-5	28.3%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	5.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1	0.0%																							0.0
14-2	0.0%																				0.0	0.0		0.0
13-3	0.1%		18.9%	18.9%		14.6															0.0	0.0		0.1
12-4	0.3%		19.3%	19.3%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
11-5	0.8%		12.6%	12.6%		15.8																0.0	0.1	0.7
10-6	1.8%		5.3%	5.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	1.7
9-7	3.8%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	3.7
8-8	6.9%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.1	6.7
7-9	10.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
6-10	14.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	14.4
5-11	17.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	17.0
4-12	16.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	16.5
3-13	13.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.9
2-14	8.8%																							8.8
1-15	3.9%																							3.9
0-16	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		0.7%	0.7%	0.0%	15.9															0.0	0.1	0.6	99.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.7%