Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #190
Pace 68.0 #208
Improvement +3.1 #55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #216 C+ D C D- C+
Defense #215 C C C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #184 1.24 #85 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #217 0.71 #246 -1.2 #246
Three Pointers 43% #136 1.02 #182 +1.4 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #128 +1.6 #128
Freethrows 0.24 #345 71% #237 0.17 #346
Second Chance 28.5% #245 0.86 #350 0.25 #320
Turnovers 16.7% #183
Total Offense -1.9 #216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #54 1.25 #298 -5.0 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #300 0.73 #136 +1.7 #59
Three Pointers 40% #212 0.91 #50 +2.6 #79
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #199 -0.6 #200
Freethrows 0.30 #188 73% #218 0.22 #192
Second Chance 32.4% #263 0.99 #123 0.32 #200
Turnovers 16.2% #213
Total Defense -1.2 #215

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #158 1.8% #325
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #133 -0.5% #175
Possession Length 17.7 #220 17.4 #206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #215 0.18 #227
Improvement +2.1 #74 +1.0 #120

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.3% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 31.9% 45.2% 18.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 88.8% 60.4%
Conference Champion 5.1% 8.2% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.1%
First Round6.1% 7.9% 4.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 35 - 55 - 14
Quad 410 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 285 @South Dakota W 81 - 79 OT 54% +2  1 - 0 -2 -8 C- F D +6 A+ C+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 2 @Arizona L 67 - 93 1% -11  1 - 1 +1 +7 C+ B- C -5 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 9 77 @Arizona St. L 66 - 81 11% -11  1 - 2 -4 -4 C- C- D +0 B+ D F+
 Wed, Nov 12 327 Manhattan L 75 - 79 76% -3  1 - 3 -14 +0 F C B+ -15 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 75 2OT 96% +3  2 - 3 -18 -4 D F B -14 F A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 102 @Hawaii L 62 - 68 16% -6  2 - 4 +2 -4 C F D+ +6 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 149 Portland St. L 63 - 68 47% -1  2 - 5 -7 -7 C+ F C+ -0 B+ C B+
 Sat, Nov 29 291 UC Riverside W 77 - 69 76% +4  3 - 5 -3 +8 B- C A -9 D- D+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 46 @Santa Clara L 80 - 90 6% -12  3 - 6 +5 +7 A+ D+ F -1 C C- B
 Sat, Dec 20 221 @Weber St. W 82 - 80 40% +1  4 - 6 +2 +12 A+ F B+ -10 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 58 @Creighton L 69 - 92 8% -11  4 - 7 -11 -2 B C F -8 F A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 284 Southern Utah W 80 - 66 75% +2  5 - 7 1 - 0 +4 +0 C+ D+ F+ +3 B- C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 267 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 64 50% +14  6 - 7 2 - 0 +12 +11 A+ F+ C- +2 D- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 134 @California Baptist L 72 - 84 23% -7  6 - 8 2 - 1 -7 +12 A F+ C+ -20 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 100 @Utah Valley L 76 - 92 16% -7  6 - 9 2 - 2 -8 +2 C+ C+ F -9 C+ D D
 Thu, Jan 15 163 Texas Arlington L 52 - 56 51% -5  6 - 10 2 - 3 -7 -17 F C- A+ +10 A- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 226 Tarleton St. W 75 - 71 64% +6  7 - 10 3 - 3 -3 +0 C+ D- C -3 B A F
 Wed, Jan 21 134 @California Baptist L 64 - 73 23% -5  7 - 11 3 - 4 -4 +3 D- B+ A+ -9 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 284 Southern Utah W 102 - 91 75% +8  8 - 11 4 - 4 +1 +21 B+ A A+ -21 F+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 29 267 @Abilene Christian W 76 - 70 50% +7  9 - 11 5 - 4 +3 -0 C- C+ F +3 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 226 @Tarleton St. W 65 - 59 41% +1  10 - 11 6 - 4 +5 -0 A F C +6 A+ F+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 163 Texas Arlington W 69 - 68 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 100 Utah Valley L 71 - 76 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 134 California Baptist L 69 - 71 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 163 @Texas Arlington L 66 - 72 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 226 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 76 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 267 Abilene Christian W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 284 @Southern Utah W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 100 Utah Valley L 71 - 76 33%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 -2 C+ D C -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.9 0.3 5.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.1 4.4 0.3 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.0 13.0 8.6 0.9 27.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 13.3 18.6 9.8 1.2 46.1 4th
5th 0.6 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 1.3 7.2 16.7 24.2 24.2 16.3 7.7 2.2 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
13-5 86.9% 1.9    0.8 1.0 0.2
12-6 31.3% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1
11-7 2.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 1.6 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 19.0% 19.0% 13.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-5 2.2% 22.2% 22.2% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.7
12-6 7.7% 15.2% 15.2% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 6.5
11-7 16.3% 9.3% 9.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.1 14.8
10-8 24.2% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.1 1.2 0.3 22.7
9-9 24.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.3 0.8 23.1
8-10 16.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.6 16.0
7-11 7.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.1
6-12 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.0 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.6%