Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.7 189
Results Rating +0.8 146
Pace 66.6 235
Improvement +4.3 36

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 166 C+ D+ C+ F+ C+
Defense C- 223 C C- D+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 202 B- 61% 99 +0.8 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 236 C 37% 196 -1.0 237
Three Pointers 44% 125 C+ 35% 135 +2.1 111
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 156 C+ +1.5 114
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 117
Second Chance C- 29.0% 221 D 0.93 316 D+ 0.27 273
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 148
Freethrows F+ 0.23 355 C- 71% 219 F+ 0.17 354
Total Offense C -0.1 166

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 176 C+ 9.9% 117
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 200 B 2.9% 44
Three Pointers C- 82% 222 B- 0.6% 116
Total C 56% 167 B 4.6% 67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 97 D- 64% 332 +4.6 330
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 291 B 34% 52 -2.0 35
Three Pointers 41% 173 B+ 30% 35 -2.3 85
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 299 C -0.4 167
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 189
Second Chance C- 32.2% 261 C 1.02 167 C- 0.33 228
Turnovers D+ 15.6% 256
Freethrows C+ 0.29 137 C+ 72% 152 C+ 0.21 130
Total Defense C- -1.7 223

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 155 D- 5.6% 350
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 146 B- 6.9% 67
Three Pointers B+ 77% 33 C 1.0% 133
Total B- 52% 114 D 4.0% 311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 222 17.6 237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 263 0.17 165
Improvement +4.5 #10 -0.1 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 216 188 160
Results Rating Rank 184 153 127
Conference Record 10 - 8 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 12% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 92% 100% 74%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 19% 25% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 12% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 36 - 37 - 12
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 293 @South Dakota W 81 - 79 OT 62% +2  66% 1 - 0 C- -3 F+ -9 C- F D B+ +6 A C C-
 Fri, Nov 7 3 @Arizona L 67 - 93 1% -11  8% 1 - 1 C +2 B- +5 C+ B- C- D+ -3 F A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 9 60 @Arizona St. L 66 - 81 11% -11  0% 1 - 2 C- -3 D -5 C- C- D+ B- +2 B D+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 319 Manhattan L 75 - 79 79% -3  12% 1 - 3 D- -14 D+ -3 F C+ B F -12 F F B
 Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 75 2OT 97% +3  69% 2 - 3 F+ -17 D- -8 D+ F B F+ -10 F A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 119 @Hawaii L 62 - 68 23% -6  0% 2 - 4 C -0 D- -7 C- F D A- +7 B F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 150 Portland St. L 63 - 68 54% -1  41% 2 - 5 D+ -8 F -10 B- F C B- +3 B B- A
 Sat, Nov 29 283 UC Riverside W 77 - 69 78% +4  87% 3 - 5 C- -2 B +6 B C A- D- -7 D- D D+
 Wed, Dec 3 42 @Santa Clara L 80 - 90 6% -12  0% 3 - 6 B- +6 B- +4 A+ D+ F B- +3 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 211 @Weber St. W 82 - 80 43% +1  59% 4 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +8 A F B D -6 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 63 @Creighton L 69 - 92 11% -11  0% 4 - 7 D- -11 D -4 B C+ F D- -6 F A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 278 Southern Utah W 80 - 66 77% +2  51% 5 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 C+ C- F+ B+ +7 B C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 245 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 64 49% +14  83% 6 - 7 2 - 0 B+ +14 A- +11 A+ D- C B +4 D- B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 138 @California Baptist L 72 - 84 28% -7  5% 6 - 8 2 - 1 D+ -8 A- +10 A F+ C+ F -19 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 95 @Utah Valley L 76 - 92 16% -7  9% 6 - 9 2 - 2 D+ -7 C +0 C+ B- F+ D -6 C+ D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 180 Texas Arlington L 52 - 56 60% -5  8% 6 - 10 2 - 3 D -8 F -20 F D+ A A+ +12 A- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 230 Tarleton St. W 75 - 71 69% +6  99% 7 - 10 3 - 3 C- -3 C- -1 B D- C C- -2 B A- F
 Wed, Jan 21 138 @California Baptist L 64 - 73 28% -5  8% 7 - 11 3 - 4 C- -5 C+ +2 D- A- A D- -8 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 278 Southern Utah W 102 - 91 77% +8  91% 8 - 11 4 - 4 C +1 A+ +18 B+ A A+ F -17 F+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 245 @Abilene Christian W 76 - 70 49% +7  99% 9 - 11 5 - 4 C+ +5 C- -1 C- B- F B +5 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 230 @Tarleton St. W 65 - 59 46% +1  46% 10 - 11 6 - 4 B- +5 C- -1 A+ F C+ A- +7 A+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 180 Texas Arlington W 87 - 84 2OT 60% +1  49% 11 - 11 7 - 4 C -1 B +6 B+ B A D- -7 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 95 Utah Valley W 81 - 77 33% +10  97% 12 - 11 8 - 4 B- +7 A +12 A+ A+ B+ D+ -5 F A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 138 California Baptist W 70 - 65 50% +1  54% 13 - 11 9 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +3 A- D+ A- C+ +1 A+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 180 @Texas Arlington L 50 - 63 37% -6  5% 13 - 12 9 - 5 D -11 F -14 F F D+ C+ +1 B F C-
 Sat, Feb 21 230 @Tarleton St. W 80 - 72 46% -2  21% 14 - 12 10 - 5 B- +7 A +13 D- A+ A+ D -5 B+ D F
 Thu, Feb 26 245 Abilene Christian W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 @Southern Utah W 78 - 76 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 95 Utah Valley L 71 - 76 33%
Totals 16 - 13 12 - 6 -2 C +0 A+ C+ C+ C- -2 C+ C- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C C+ C+ 38% 33% 44% C+ C+ C- D D+ C+ F+ C- F+ C- D- B B+ C 42% 17% 41% D C C- C C- D+ C+ C+ C+
1.09 61% 37% 35% +2 0 1.06 29% 0.9 .27 16% .23 71% .17 1.11 64% 34% 30% 0 +1 1.03 32% 1.0 .33 16% .29 72% .17
Nov
3		 South Dakota F+ C A+ F D+ 54% 8% 38% B+ C- D F F D F F F B+ B C A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C A D- B+ C C- F D+ F
0.98 61% 80% 26% 0 +3 1.08 28% 0.6 .16 18% .19 62% .12 0.96 52% 36% 13% -12 0 0.78 32% 0.9 .27 17% .51 77% .39
Nov
7		 Arizona B- B D+ F+ C+ 26% 26% 48% B- C+ B+ C- B- C- A+ C+ A+ D+ F B F F 47% 26% 26% C- F C A+ A+ B+ B- B B
0.94 58% 33% 27% -6 -2 0.87 29% 0.8 .24 20% .47 70% .33 1.31 84% 36% 50% +18 0 1.38 41% 0.5 .22 17% .34 70% .24
Nov
9		 Arizona St. D C+ C- D C- 24% 22% 53% D+ C- D- A- C- D+ A+ F B- B- C- B B B 36% 26% 38% B B B- F D+ F+ A+ C+ A+
0.93 58% 36% 31% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.2 .30 23% .40 59% .24 1.14 62% 33% 32% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.5 .43 11% .25 75% .19
Nov
12		 Manhattan D+ F D+ D+ F 38% 15% 46% C+ F B+ D C+ B C+ F D+ F D+ C+ F F 52% 17% 30% F F F C F B F F+ F
1.16 50% 38% 33% -4 +1 0.96 43% 1.0 .43 12% .26 60% .16 1.22 58% 38% 43% +4 +1 1.13 38% 1.1 .41 19% .38 85% .32
Nov
14		 Mississippi Valley D- A+ B F D+ 32% 17% 51% C- D+ D+ F F B B F C F+ F D+ A F 31% 29% 41% F F C+ A+ A- F A F B+
1.09 82% 44% 26% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.6 .22 15% .44 68% .30 1.01 83% 41% 25% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.5 .11 16% .18 82% .14
Nov
15		 Hawaii D- B+ D+ F C 35% 26% 39% D C- F F F D D- B+ D+ A- D- F A+ B+ 50% 17% 33% C- B C- F F A+ F F F
0.88 63% 36% 24% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 18% .26 73% .19 0.96 67% 57% 7% -6 +1 0.93 32% 1.7 .54 27% .49 84% .41
Nov
25		 Portland St. F A- D+ F B- 43% 21% 36% C B- F F F C F B+ F B- D+ A+ A B 43% 19% 38% C+ B F A+ B- A F C- F
0.89 67% 33% 25% -2 0 0.98 10% 0.7 .06 18% .17 80% .14 0.96 60% 22% 28% -6 0 0.91 41% 0.6 .26 24% .44 71% .31
Nov
29		 UC Riverside B C A+ B- B+ 49% 22% 29% C B F+ A+ C A- C- A+ B- D- F F A F+ 39% 22% 39% C+ D- C- F+ D D+ D+ B- C-
1.22 58% 64% 36% +7 +1 1.16 22% 1.4 .30 11% .32 83% .27 1.09 72% 50% 28% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 17% .32 71% .23
Dec
3		 Santa Clara B- A C- B A+ 45% 11% 45% B A+ A+ F D+ F F A+ F B- F C+ B+ B- 38% 12% 50% D+ C+ F B+ D+ B B- A+ A
1.05 72% 33% 36% +7 +2 1.20 44% 0.6 .25 29% .15 100% .15 1.18 74% 43% 30% +4 +1 1.12 45% 1.0 .45 18% .21 54% .11
Dec
20		 Weber St. B+ A+ A+ B A+ 28% 28% 44% F A C F F B A- F B- D D- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ A+ A+ C F C- F
1.23 86% 57% 36% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.4 .13 14% .40 65% .26 1.20 64% 0% 53% +13 +3 1.35 23% 0.3 .08 17% .54 73% .40
Dec
22		 Creighton D B D+ C B- 49% 17% 34% A B F A+ C+ F F+ F F+ D- F B+ F F 43% 5% 52% F F C A+ A+ C+ B- C+ B-
0.96 62% 33% 33% +1 +1 1.06 17% 1.8 .30 21% .14 63% .09 1.28 75% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 28% 0.4 .13 15% .25 73% .18
Dec
29		 Southern Utah D+ D+ F A+ C- 53% 11% 36% A C+ B+ F C- F+ D F D- B+ A- F+ B+ A- 51% 14% 35% F B C+ B- C+ B- F A+ D-
1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13 0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23
Jan
1		 Abilene Christian A- A A+ A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% C+ A+ C- F D- C F A+ F B F A+ A+ D- 46% 22% 33% D D- C+ A B+ A+ D- B- D
1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21 0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27
Jan
8		 California Baptist A- A- D A A 49% 19% 32% B A B- F F+ C+ C+ B+ B F B D C C 46% 15% 39% D+ C- F F F F F D- F
1.15 65% 33% 40% +5 +1 1.15 29% 0.4 .13 14% .34 78% .26 1.35 48% 43% 33% -4 +1 0.96 52% 1.4 .73 11% .47 77% .36
Jan
10		 Utah Valley C D+ C+ B- C 49% 21% 30% B- C+ C- A B- F+ C+ A+ A D C F A C+ 54% 13% 33% C- C+ A- F D- D F F F
0.99 52% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 25% .35 90% .31 1.20 59% 57% 28% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.5 .47 18% .43 89% .38
Jan
15		 Texas Arlington F F F F F 51% 23% 26% B+ F B- F D+ A F+ F F A+ A B A+ A+ 62% 13% 26% F A- C+ A+ A+ B+ D- F F
0.77 44% 17% 7% -22 +1 0.58 32% 0.9 .28 12% .30 50% .15 0.83 41% 33% 25% -14 +3 0.79 33% 0.5 .15 24% .41 81% .33
Jan
17		 Tarleton St. C- A+ F C B 38% 11% 51% B B F B- D- C B C+ B C- C+ F A+ A- 57% 17% 26% F B F A+ A- F D+ A+ B
1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32 1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21
Jan
21		 California Baptist C+ F F A+ D- 36% 28% 36% D D- B A A- A F A+ F+ D- B- B B- C+ 49% 18% 33% C- C+ B- F F F F A+ C
1.03 37% 20% 42% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.2 .36 10% .18 100% .18 1.18 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.4 .49 11% .38 57% .22
Jan
24		 Southern Utah A+ B- B A B 52% 18% 31% B B+ B- A+ A A+ B- B+ B F F A B F+ 50% 24% 26% C- F+ C- F F+ F F F F
1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22 1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38
Jan
29		 Abilene Christian C- B- F A+ C- 45% 17% 38% C C- B- C+ B- F A+ F+ A- B C+ A+ B- B 48% 14% 38% F C+ B- F F C A A+ A+
1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38 0.95 54% 14% 32% -7 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Tarleton St. C- A D+ A+ A+ 30% 17% 52% C- A+ F F F C+ F F F A- A C- A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% F A+ F C+ F C+ C- F+ D
1.02 71% 38% 50% +16 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06 0.93 45% 40% 14% -19 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28
Feb
5		 Texas Arlington B D+ B- A B 48% 21% 31% A- B+ B B- B A F+ C- F+ D- C D+ A+ B 46% 18% 36% C- B- B- F F F A+ A A+
1.14 54% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.2 .39 12% .30 70% .21 1.10 55% 42% 21% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.4 .47 10% .16 64% .10
Feb
12		 Utah Valley A C+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 20% 33% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ D F F+ D+ F F B+ F 53% 12% 35% C- F C A+ A+ B- C- A- C+
1.20 58% 60% 41% +8 +1 1.20 37% 1.3 .47 18% .29 63% .18 1.14 77% 50% 29% +9 +2 1.24 38% 0.5 .19 22% .30 63% .19
Feb
14		 California Baptist C+ F+ C A+ B+ 50% 15% 35% B+ A- C- D- D+ A- D+ F D C+ A+ C B+ A+ 28% 15% 57% B A+ C- B+ B- F F+ A+ C
1.09 46% 38% 50% +2 +2 1.10 24% 0.8 .19 11% .30 65% .19 1.01 20% 38% 29% -15 0 0.72 39% 0.8 .30 8% .37 59% .22
Feb
19		 Texas Arlington F D- A- F F+ 13% 33% 54% F F F+ F F D+ F A+ F C+ F A+ A+ B+ 49% 21% 30% C B F D- F C- A- A+ A+
0.82 50% 47% 20% -10 -3 0.76 20% 0.7 .14 18% .24 83% .20 1.03 74% 0% 14% -9 +1 0.85 43% 1.1 .46 20% .28 57% .16
Feb
21		 Tarleton St. A C C C- D 21% 21% 57% D- D- B- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B D F A+ B- B- 26% 38% 36% A+ B+ B- F D F A- F B-
1.23 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.8 .67 17% .37 85% .32 1.11 71% 20% 32% -5 -3 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 11% .26 87% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.8 14.1 19.0 1st
2nd 0.7 10.5 26.2 37.4 2nd
3rd 8.6 24.4 10.6 43.6 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 9.3 35.0 41.6 14.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 14.1    3.6 7.6 2.9
12-6 11.4% 4.8    0.3 2.0 2.4
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 19.0% 19.0 3.9 9.6 5.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 14.1% 19.8% 19.8% 13.7 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.2 11.3
12-6 41.6% 12.2% 12.2% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.0 36.6
11-7 35.0% 7.4% 7.4% 14.7 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.1 32.4
10-8 9.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 8.8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 14.3 89.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 13.7 1.7 34.6 55.0 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.1%
Lose Out 3.7%