St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#221
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#233
Pace60.6#350
Improvement-2.4#315

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#267
First Shot-5.3#325
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#80
Layup/Dunks-8.5#363
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#78
Freethrows+0.7#138
Improvement-1.2#278

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#153
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#221
Layups/Dunks-1.2#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#45
Freethrows-4.6#361
Improvement-1.2#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 18.0% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 72.3% 81.1% 59.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 79.0% 67.9%
Conference Champion 12.3% 14.5% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.5% 3.0%
First Four2.8% 2.3% 3.4%
First Round14.4% 16.9% 10.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 414 - 816 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 117   @ Seton Hall L 53-57 20%     0 - 1 +2.0 -6.4 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 151   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 27%     0 - 2 -3.6 +1.1 -4.7
  Nov 11, 2024 62   @ Rutgers L 65-75 9%     0 - 3 +1.8 +2.9 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 255   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 69-61 48%     1 - 3 +5.7 +4.8 +2.3
  Nov 26, 2024 339   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-76 69%     2 - 3 -6.2 +2.7 -8.7
  Dec 03, 2024 198   @ Duquesne W 62-59 34%     3 - 3 +4.3 +3.4 +1.5
  Dec 06, 2024 316   Manhattan L 67-70 80%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -14.8 -11.7 -3.2
  Dec 08, 2024 257   @ Iona L 63-72 48%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -11.5 -5.2 -6.8
  Dec 20, 2024 207   Delaware W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 03, 2025 238   Quinnipiac W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 10, 2025 314   @ Niagara W 65-62 61%    
  Jan 12, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 236   Marist W 64-60 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 277   @ Sacred Heart W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 217   Merrimack W 62-59 60%    
  Jan 31, 2025 288   @ Rider W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 02, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 283   @ Siena W 62-61 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 316   @ Manhattan W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 14, 2025 292   Fairfield W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 16, 2025 288   Rider W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 21, 2025 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 23, 2025 277   Sacred Heart W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 28, 2025 238   @ Quinnipiac L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 02, 2025 236   @ Marist L 61-63 43%    
  Mar 06, 2025 314   Niagara W 68-59 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 352   Canisius W 73-60 87%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.3 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.2 5.0 2.5 0.6 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.2 5.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.1 0.8 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 1.4 0.1 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.0 0.2 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.9 9.3 11.7 13.5 13.9 12.9 10.3 6.7 3.8 1.5 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 96.7% 1.4    1.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 82.9% 3.1    2.4 0.7 0.0
15-5 57.3% 3.8    2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 27.5% 2.8    0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.9% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 6.8 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 59.3% 59.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 1.5% 42.4% 42.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9
16-4 3.8% 36.9% 36.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.4
15-5 6.7% 33.6% 33.6% 14.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 4.4
14-6 10.3% 27.1% 27.1% 15.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 7.5
13-7 12.9% 21.8% 21.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.3 10.1
12-8 13.9% 17.3% 17.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 11.5
11-9 13.5% 11.9% 11.9% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 11.9
10-10 11.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 10.9
9-11 9.3% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.8
8-12 6.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.6
7-13 4.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.3
6-14 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.5 6.5 84.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 20.8 62.5 16.7