Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#287
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#253
Pace81.8#4
Improvement-5.7#357

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#232
First Shot-2.9#267
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#146
Layup/Dunks-1.0#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#75
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement-1.4#268

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#313
First Shot-3.7#295
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#281
Layups/Dunks-2.2#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#242
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-4.4#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 52.9% 43.9% 67.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 16
Quad 46 - 59 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 75   @ San Francisco L 78-86 6%     0 - 1 +2.1 -0.8 +4.0
  Nov 07, 2024 118   @ California L 73-91 12%     0 - 2 -12.6 -4.8 -6.4
  Nov 14, 2024 150   Seattle W 75-71 30%     1 - 2 +2.2 -1.6 +3.6
  Nov 17, 2024 259   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 34%     2 - 2 +1.2 -2.6 +3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 63   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 5%     2 - 3 +7.3 +13.1 -5.3
  Nov 23, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 66-80 3%     2 - 4 +1.4 -0.1 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 326   Grambling St. W 82-79 70%     3 - 4 -9.7 +4.1 -13.8
  Nov 30, 2024 88   @ Stanford W 97-90 7%     4 - 4 +16.2 +17.8 -2.3
  Dec 05, 2024 228   @ UC Davis L 66-77 28%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -12.1 -12.1 +1.6
  Dec 07, 2024 133   Cal St. Northridge L 91-102 27%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -11.9 +3.6 -13.7
  Dec 14, 2024 159   @ San Jose St. L 100-107 OT 17%     4 - 7 -3.9 +5.0 -7.4
  Dec 17, 2024 340   Denver W 95-94 OT 75%     5 - 7 -13.3 -1.3 -12.1
  Dec 21, 2024 221   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-86 26%     5 - 8 -4.6 +3.6 -8.1
  Jan 02, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 89-98 OT 11%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -2.5 +3.5 -3.9
  Jan 04, 2025 181   @ Hawaii L 55-68 20%     5 - 10 0 - 4 -11.2 -11.6 -0.8
  Jan 09, 2025 79   @ UC San Diego L 68-95 6%     5 - 11 0 - 5 -17.1 +1.0 -18.5
  Jan 11, 2025 165   UC Santa Barbara L 72-75 33%     5 - 12 0 - 6 -5.8 +2.9 -8.9
  Jan 16, 2025 228   UC Davis L 54-65 47%     5 - 13 0 - 7 -17.5 -9.9 -9.1
  Jan 18, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 71-101 5%     5 - 14 0 - 8 -18.0 +0.1 -14.7
  Jan 25, 2025 295   Long Beach St. W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 233   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 173   @ UC Riverside L 75-84 18%    
  Feb 06, 2025 181   Hawaii L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 310   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 77-78 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 133   @ Cal St. Northridge L 80-92 14%    
  Feb 20, 2025 79   UC San Diego L 72-84 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 173   UC Riverside L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 165   @ UC Santa Barbara L 72-82 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 233   Cal St. Bakersfield L 77-78 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 310   Cal St. Fullerton W 79-75 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 295   @ Long Beach St. L 77-79 41%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 2.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 3.2 1.4 0.2 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 6.0 7.6 3.2 0.2 18.6 9th
10th 0.7 5.7 12.2 10.7 3.3 0.3 32.9 10th
11th 0.6 4.7 10.0 13.3 7.5 1.8 0.1 37.9 11th
Total 0.6 4.7 10.7 19.0 21.2 18.7 13.2 7.5 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 1.1% 1.1
8-12 3.0% 3.0
7-13 7.5% 7.5
6-14 13.2% 13.2
5-15 18.7% 18.7
4-16 21.2% 21.2
3-17 19.0% 19.0
2-18 10.7% 10.7
1-19 4.7% 4.7
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%