Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#269
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#138
Pace81.5#8
Improvement+0.5#123

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#290
First Shot-3.3#270
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#225
Layup/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#108
Freethrows-1.3#251
Improvement-0.1#193

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#225
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#326
Layups/Dunks+2.0#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows-3.1#326
Improvement+0.6#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 2.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 12.2% 36.5% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 20.2% 37.9% 19.6%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 25.4% 14.1% 25.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 2.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 3.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 15
Quad 48 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 57   @ San Francisco L 78-86 6%     0 - 1 +4.1 +0.6 +4.6
  Nov 07, 2024 102   @ California L 73-91 11%     0 - 2 -10.3 -1.4 -7.6
  Nov 14, 2024 135   Seattle W 75-71 34%     1 - 2 +2.8 -2.4 +5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 243   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 33%     2 - 2 +3.0 -2.8 +5.3
  Nov 20, 2024 70   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 7%     2 - 3 +7.0 +11.7 -4.2
  Nov 23, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 64-84 3%    
  Nov 26, 2024 234   Grambling St. W 72-71 54%    
  Nov 30, 2024 76   @ Stanford L 68-84 7%    
  Dec 05, 2024 147   @ UC Davis L 74-83 19%    
  Dec 07, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge L 81-82 46%    
  Dec 14, 2024 250   @ San Jose St. L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 17, 2024 294   Denver W 83-78 66%    
  Dec 21, 2024 259   @ Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 02, 2025 59   UC Irvine L 69-81 15%    
  Jan 05, 2025 175   @ Hawaii L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 09, 2025 159   @ UC San Diego L 70-79 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 130   UC Santa Barbara L 76-81 34%    
  Jan 16, 2025 147   UC Davis L 77-80 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 59   @ UC Irvine L 66-84 6%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   Long Beach St. W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 237   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 202   @ UC Riverside L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 175   Hawaii L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 274   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 78-85 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 159   UC San Diego L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 202   UC Riverside L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 130   @ UC Santa Barbara L 73-84 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 274   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 263   @ Long Beach St. L 72-75 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.4 4.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 6.0 4.6 1.0 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.3 5.9 3.7 0.9 0.1 16.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.4 3.3 4.9 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 17.3 11th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.6 6.5 9.4 11.2 12.8 12.9 11.9 9.7 7.2 5.6 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 85.7% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 46.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 24.0% 24.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 21.0% 21.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.5% 16.0% 16.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.1% 11.4% 11.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-7 2.0% 5.2% 5.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
12-8 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
11-9 5.6% 2.1% 2.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
10-10 7.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
9-11 9.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7
8-12 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-14 12.8% 12.8
5-15 11.2% 11.2
4-16 9.4% 9.4
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 3.6% 3.6
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%