Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#180
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#247
Pace67.6#214
Improvement-2.7#306

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#202
First Shot+2.9#98
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#348
Layup/Dunks-2.1#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#23
Freethrows-2.7#326
Improvement-3.7#341

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#169
First Shot+0.5#160
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#225
Layups/Dunks-2.1#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#36
Freethrows-2.1#317
Improvement+1.0#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 20.0% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 37.3% 43.2% 18.0%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 84.4% 59.8%
Conference Champion 6.6% 8.0% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 2.8%
First Four4.3% 3.9% 5.9%
First Round17.3% 18.7% 12.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 413 - 515 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 5%     0 - 1 +6.6 +6.2 -0.5
  Nov 09, 2024 138   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 31%     0 - 2 -15.6 -1.4 -14.5
  Nov 17, 2024 340   @ Denver L 78-79 77%     0 - 3 -9.8 -7.0 -2.7
  Nov 19, 2024 55   @ Northwestern L 69-72 11%     0 - 4 +9.8 +10.5 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2024 258   Southern Miss W 79-59 76%     1 - 4 +11.8 +0.0 +11.0
  Nov 26, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 85-59 73%     2 - 4 +18.8 +19.7 +1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 133   Cal St. Northridge L 69-72 OT 50%     2 - 5 -3.9 -7.6 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2024 222   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-65 49%     3 - 5 +10.4 +7.6 +3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 223   UMKC W 74-62 70%     4 - 5 +5.7 +8.4 -1.2
  Dec 15, 2024 61   @ USC L 63-89 12%     4 - 6 -14.2 -9.0 -3.3
  Dec 18, 2024 175   @ UC Riverside L 80-83 38%     4 - 7 -0.8 +12.7 -13.7
  Dec 22, 2024 62   @ TCU L 48-82 13%     4 - 8 -22.6 -16.0 -7.0
  Jan 02, 2025 246   @ Idaho L 64-69 54%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -7.0 -12.5 +5.4
  Jan 04, 2025 257   @ Eastern Washington L 63-68 57%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -7.6 -10.8 +3.1
  Jan 09, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 82-83 58%     4 - 11 0 - 3 -3.9 +8.3 -12.3
  Jan 11, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 58-53 77%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -3.6 -20.9 +17.3
  Jan 16, 2025 217   @ Idaho St. L 67-70 48%     5 - 12 1 - 4 -3.4 +5.8 -9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 237   @ Weber St. W 80-71 53%     6 - 12 2 - 4 +7.4 +7.6 +0.1
  Jan 20, 2025 257   Eastern Washington W 77-70 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 226   @ Montana W 73-72 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 71-58 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 227   Portland St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 237   Weber St. W 74-68 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 217   Idaho St. W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 226   Montana W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 227   @ Portland St. W 72-71 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 69-61 76%    
  Mar 03, 2025 246   Idaho W 76-69 74%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 2.3 2.8 1.0 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 6.7 8.3 2.8 0.3 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.0 9.3 2.6 0.1 19.8 3rd
4th 0.2 4.7 9.8 2.5 0.1 17.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 7.7 3.2 0.2 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.5 4.3 0.3 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.8 11.6 18.0 21.2 19.2 13.4 5.8 1.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 78.8% 1.0    0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 48.3% 2.8    1.2 1.3 0.3
12-6 17.2% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2
11-7 2.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 2.4 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.3% 41.7% 41.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8
13-5 5.8% 37.6% 37.6% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 3.6
12-6 13.4% 27.9% 27.9% 14.7 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.2 9.6
11-7 19.2% 21.6% 21.6% 15.2 0.2 3.2 0.8 15.0
10-8 21.2% 18.5% 18.5% 15.6 1.4 2.5 17.2
9-9 18.0% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.1 2.5 15.5
8-10 11.6% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.0 10.6
7-11 5.8% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.4 5.4
6-12 2.8% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-13 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 7.4 7.5 81.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.8 3.6 21.8 61.8 12.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%