North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#237
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#116
Pace72.8#89
Improvement+2.0#29

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#235
First Shot-2.8#254
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#142
Layup/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#270
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement+1.9#16

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#228
First Shot-2.5#266
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#123
Layups/Dunks-8.2#359
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#13
Freethrows+0.6#153
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 12.3% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 47.5% 57.0% 33.2%
.500 or above in Conference 59.5% 64.4% 52.1%
Conference Champion 12.7% 15.3% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 8.1% 14.0%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 2.1%
First Round9.8% 11.6% 7.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Neutral) - 60.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 410 - 614 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 107   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 16%     0 - 1 -19.1 -15.8 -1.8
  Nov 14, 2024 122   Utah Valley W 77-71 37%     1 - 1 +5.6 +4.8 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 74   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 9%     1 - 2 -6.3 -8.3 +1.4
  Nov 22, 2024 186   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 30%     2 - 2 +5.7 +2.7 +2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 04, 2024 244   @ Eastern Washington L 78-81 41%    
  Dec 07, 2024 221   Weber St. W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 11, 2024 122   @ Utah Valley L 68-77 20%    
  Dec 15, 2024 269   Texas San Antonio W 81-76 67%    
  Dec 18, 2024 10   Alabama L 73-92 5%    
  Jan 02, 2025 293   Nebraska Omaha W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 194   St. Thomas W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 297   @ Denver W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 263   @ Oral Roberts L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 153   @ South Dakota St. L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 18, 2025 235   UMKC W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 23, 2025 257   South Dakota W 82-78 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 243   @ North Dakota St. L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 153   South Dakota St. L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 293   @ Nebraska Omaha L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 235   @ UMKC L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 297   Denver W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   Oral Roberts W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   North Dakota St. W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 27, 2025 194   @ St. Thomas L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 257   @ South Dakota L 79-81 45%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.4 3.6 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.5 5.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.4 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.2 5.2 1.2 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.9 5.3 1.1 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.4 1.1 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.4 1.3 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.3 1.3 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.2 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.1 7.7 10.5 12.6 12.9 13.1 11.7 9.2 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-2 97.2% 1.8    1.7 0.1
13-3 85.8% 3.2    2.4 0.8 0.0
12-4 58.2% 3.6    1.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 26.5% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
10-6 6.9% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.6 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 51.5% 51.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.6% 45.3% 45.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.9% 35.8% 35.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.2
13-3 3.8% 32.6% 32.6% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5
12-4 6.2% 23.9% 23.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 4.7
11-5 9.2% 19.5% 19.5% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 7.4
10-6 11.7% 14.6% 14.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 10.0
9-7 13.1% 9.4% 9.4% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 11.8
8-8 12.9% 7.6% 7.6% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 11.9
7-9 12.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 12.0
6-10 10.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.2
5-11 7.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.5
4-12 5.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.0
3-13 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-14 1.3% 1.3
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 3.5 3.0 89.4 0.0%