North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#280
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#303
Pace71.3#100
Improvement+0.5#157

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#162
First Shot-2.7#253
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#22
Layup/Dunks-2.5#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows-1.2#262
Improvement+2.7#42

Defense
Total Defense-7.4#350
First Shot-8.2#358
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#106
Layups/Dunks-3.1#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#296
Freethrows-0.3#209
Improvement-2.2#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 10.4% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 5.8% 18.6%
First Four1.6% 2.2% 1.4%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 33 - 63 - 13
Quad 45 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 79   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 7%     0 - 1 -16.1 -14.6 +0.0
  Nov 14, 2024 125   Utah Valley W 77-71 27%     1 - 1 +5.6 +5.8 -0.3
  Nov 19, 2024 71   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 7%     1 - 2 -6.7 -10.5 +3.2
  Nov 22, 2024 145   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 17%     2 - 2 +7.6 +5.2 +2.3
  Nov 26, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman L 67-79 50%     2 - 3 -18.7 -5.9 -12.7
  Nov 27, 2024 225   SE Louisiana L 60-76 38%     2 - 4 -19.4 -9.3 -11.1
  Dec 04, 2024 274   @ Eastern Washington L 81-87 39%     2 - 5 -10.0 +12.0 -22.4
  Dec 07, 2024 256   Weber St. W 80-75 55%     3 - 5 -3.1 +5.2 -8.0
  Dec 11, 2024 125   @ Utah Valley L 57-80 15%     3 - 6 -18.4 -7.8 -11.9
  Dec 13, 2024 216   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-80 27%     3 - 7 -4.5 -3.5 -0.8
  Dec 15, 2024 216   Texas San Antonio L 85-95 45%     3 - 8 -15.5 +0.8 -15.7
  Dec 18, 2024 6   Alabama L 90-97 2%     3 - 9 +10.0 +16.2 -5.7
  Jan 02, 2025 206   Nebraska Omaha L 85-95 44%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -15.1 +4.7 -19.4
  Jan 04, 2025 133   St. Thomas L 80-88 29%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -8.8 +0.7 -9.3
  Jan 09, 2025 331   @ Denver W 95-70 56%     4 - 11 1 - 2 +16.8 +16.3 +0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 322   @ Oral Roberts L 79-83 51%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -11.0 +0.2 -11.2
  Jan 16, 2025 111   @ South Dakota St. L 73-109 12%     4 - 13 1 - 4 -29.9 -1.2 -26.7
  Jan 18, 2025 229   UMKC W 76-72 48%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -2.3 +9.9 -11.8
  Jan 23, 2025 259   South Dakota L 93-102 56%     5 - 14 2 - 5 -17.2 -1.4 -14.6
  Jan 25, 2025 127   @ North Dakota St. L 82-87 15%     5 - 15 2 - 6 -0.5 +6.1 -6.6
  Feb 01, 2025 111   South Dakota St. L 76-84 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 206   @ Nebraska Omaha L 76-83 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 229   @ UMKC L 71-76 29%    
  Feb 13, 2025 331   Denver W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 322   Oral Roberts W 84-79 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 127   North Dakota St. L 77-83 31%    
  Feb 27, 2025 133   @ St. Thomas L 76-87 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 259   @ South Dakota L 88-92 35%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 4th
5th 0.5 3.8 5.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.9 10.4 12.9 4.1 0.4 0.0 28.8 6th
7th 0.6 13.2 16.6 4.2 0.2 34.9 7th
8th 0.2 6.2 8.6 1.7 0.0 16.8 8th
9th 1.7 3.2 0.9 0.0 5.9 9th
Total 2.0 10.1 23.7 29.2 21.0 10.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-8 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-9 10.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.3 10.0
6-10 21.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.5 20.5
5-11 29.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.5 28.7
4-12 23.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 23.5
3-13 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
2-14 2.0% 2.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%