North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#275
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#281
Pace71.2#91
Improvement+0.9#150

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#156
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#22
Layup/Dunks-2.5#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows-1.2#261
Improvement+0.4#156

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#350
First Shot-8.0#359
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#101
Layups/Dunks-3.1#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#295
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+0.5#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 8.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 8.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 4.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 64 - 13
Quad 44 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 57   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 5%     0 - 1 -13.5 -14.6 +2.7
  Nov 14, 2024 114   Utah Valley W 77-71 26%     1 - 1 +6.3 +5.5 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 94   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 9%     1 - 2 -8.7 -10.4 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 159   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 19%     2 - 2 +6.9 +5.6 +1.2
  Nov 26, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman L 67-79 53%     2 - 3 -19.2 -7.6 -11.5
  Nov 27, 2024 220   SE Louisiana L 60-76 37%     2 - 4 -19.1 -10.5 -9.6
  Dec 04, 2024 291   @ Eastern Washington L 81-87 43%     2 - 5 -10.6 +11.7 -22.8
  Dec 07, 2024 283   Weber St. W 80-75 63%     3 - 5 -4.7 +6.9 -11.4
  Dec 11, 2024 114   @ Utah Valley L 57-80 13%     3 - 6 -17.3 -8.0 -10.6
  Dec 13, 2024 190   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-80 24%     3 - 7 -3.0 -0.9 -2.0
  Dec 15, 2024 190   Texas San Antonio L 85-95 42%     3 - 8 -14.4 +3.2 -17.0
  Dec 18, 2024 5   Alabama L 90-97 2%     3 - 9 +11.0 +16.5 -5.0
  Jan 02, 2025 175   Nebraska Omaha L 85-95 39%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -13.5 +4.2 -17.3
  Jan 04, 2025 134   St. Thomas L 80-88 31%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -9.2 +0.3 -9.3
  Jan 09, 2025 302   @ Denver W 95-70 46%     4 - 11 1 - 2 +19.7 +19.6 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 314   @ Oral Roberts L 79-83 50%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -10.4 +2.1 -12.5
  Jan 16, 2025 126   @ South Dakota St. L 73-109 15%     4 - 13 1 - 4 -31.1 -2.7 -26.3
  Jan 18, 2025 235   UMKC W 76-72 52%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -2.9 +10.0 -12.5
  Jan 23, 2025 232   South Dakota L 93-102 51%     5 - 14 2 - 5 -15.5 +1.3 -15.7
  Jan 25, 2025 139   @ North Dakota St. L 82-87 17%     5 - 15 2 - 6 -1.2 +5.6 -6.7
  Feb 01, 2025 126   South Dakota St. W 80-75 28%     6 - 15 3 - 6 +4.5 +10.3 -5.5
  Feb 06, 2025 175   @ Nebraska Omaha L 77-80 22%     6 - 16 3 - 7 -1.1 +7.5 -8.8
  Feb 08, 2025 235   @ UMKC L 69-80 32%     6 - 17 3 - 8 -12.5 +2.8 -16.0
  Feb 13, 2025 302   Denver L 64-68 66%     6 - 18 3 - 9 -14.7 -15.3 +0.8
  Feb 15, 2025 314   Oral Roberts W 88-77 70%     7 - 18 4 - 9 -0.8 +10.4 -10.8
  Feb 22, 2025 139   North Dakota St. W 79-77 32%     8 - 18 5 - 9 +0.4 +4.2 -3.7
  Feb 27, 2025 134   @ St. Thomas L 71-86 16%     8 - 19 5 - 10 -10.8 -0.8 -10.5
  Mar 01, 2025 232   @ South Dakota L 79-92 31%     8 - 20 5 - 11 -14.1 -8.3 -4.1
  Mar 07, 2025 126   South Dakota St. L 76-85 21%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11 100.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 1.6 98.4
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.1%
Lose Out 80.5%