North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#275
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#275
Pace68.9#181
Improvement+1.3#105

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#181
First Shot-3.5#278
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#27
Layup/Dunks-2.9#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#163
Freethrows-1.6#277
Improvement+3.3#14

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#340
First Shot-6.0#348
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#171
Layups/Dunks-2.7#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#266
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement-2.0#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 3.0% 4.2% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.2% 37.2% 14.7%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 12.0% 32.5%
First Four1.3% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 47 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 10%     0 - 1 -18.0 -14.9 -1.5
  Nov 14, 2024 145   Utah Valley W 77-71 36%     1 - 1 +3.5 +4.7 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 7%     1 - 2 -6.9 -8.2 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 19%     2 - 2 +7.0 +4.4 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 263   Bethune-Cookman L 67-79 47%     2 - 3 -17.4 -6.3 -11.0
  Nov 27, 2024 225   SE Louisiana L 60-76 39%     2 - 4 -19.5 -7.7 -12.8
  Dec 04, 2024 254   @ Eastern Washington L 81-87 34%     2 - 5 -8.1 +10.8 -19.3
  Dec 07, 2024 210   Weber St. W 80-75 47%     3 - 5 -0.5 +7.5 -7.7
  Dec 11, 2024 145   @ Utah Valley L 57-80 18%     3 - 6 -19.5 -8.4 -12.3
  Dec 13, 2024 226   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-80 29%     3 - 7 -4.5 -1.9 -2.5
  Dec 15, 2024 226   Texas San Antonio L 85-95 51%     3 - 8 -16.5 +1.9 -17.8
  Dec 18, 2024 9   Alabama L 90-97 4%     3 - 9 +7.9 +15.7 -7.4
  Jan 02, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 125   St. Thomas L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 09, 2025 317   @ Denver L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 284   @ Oral Roberts L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 121   @ South Dakota St. L 70-82 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 222   UMKC W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 23, 2025 236   South Dakota W 86-85 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 116   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 121   South Dakota St. L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 222   @ UMKC L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 317   Denver W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 284   Oral Roberts W 78-75 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 116   North Dakota St. L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 27, 2025 125   @ St. Thomas L 72-84 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 236   @ South Dakota L 83-88 33%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.2 4.4 1.0 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 7.1 5.3 1.1 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.6 7.7 5.8 1.1 0.0 17.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.7 5.4 0.9 0.0 17.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.4 4.5 0.7 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 3.1 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.3 9th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.2 11.6 15.4 16.3 15.5 12.3 8.4 4.8 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 95.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 81.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 46.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 15.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.3% 10.1% 10.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 0.9% 11.4% 11.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
11-5 2.5% 8.4% 8.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
10-6 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.5
9-7 8.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.1
8-8 12.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 12.0
7-9 15.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.2
6-10 16.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 16.1
5-11 15.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.3
4-12 11.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.6
3-13 7.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-15 1.1% 1.1
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%