Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#289
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#249
Pace62.1#338
Improvement-1.6#251

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#258
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#115
Layup/Dunks-1.8#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#296
Freethrows-2.9#337
Improvement+0.7#135

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#285
First Shot-4.5#316
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#124
Layups/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#304
Freethrows-0.8#246
Improvement-2.3#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 5.5% 6.8% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 52.8% 60.1% 29.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 49 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 17   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 2%     0 - 1 -1.8 +1.8 -4.2
  Nov 11, 2024 45   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 4%     0 - 2 -2.0 -9.4 +6.9
  Nov 16, 2024 192   @ Rice L 75-77 OT 21%     0 - 3 -0.6 +1.8 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 347   Louisiana Monroe L 63-65 76%     0 - 4 -16.8 -11.3 -5.6
  Nov 24, 2024 163   North Alabama W 71-58 32%     1 - 4 +10.4 +3.6 +8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 63   @ LSU L 53-77 5%     1 - 5 -12.6 -13.1 +0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 303   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 42%     2 - 5 1 - 0 -3.2 +3.5 -6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 316   @ Houston Christian W 64-57 46%     3 - 5 2 - 0 +0.9 -2.0 +4.0
  Dec 14, 2024 118   @ California L 66-84 12%     3 - 6 -12.5 -0.5 -13.6
  Dec 29, 2024 38   @ Texas L 53-77 3%     3 - 7 -9.2 -2.4 -11.5
  Jan 04, 2025 205   Nicholls St. W 68-66 41%     4 - 7 3 - 0 -2.9 -0.7 -2.0
  Jan 06, 2025 74   McNeese St. L 69-92 13%     4 - 8 3 - 1 -18.3 +5.6 -26.0
  Jan 11, 2025 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-67 80%     5 - 8 4 - 1 -8.2 -2.8 -5.3
  Jan 13, 2025 169   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-73 18%     5 - 9 4 - 2 -6.6 -3.9 -3.3
  Jan 18, 2025 220   SE Louisiana L 64-65 45%     5 - 10 4 - 3 -7.0 +0.6 -7.8
  Jan 20, 2025 343   New Orleans W 75-68 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 60-65 31%    
  Jan 27, 2025 231   @ Lamar L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 354   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 03, 2025 247   UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 74   @ McNeese St. L 58-75 5%    
  Feb 10, 2025 205   @ Nicholls St. L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin W 63-62 52%    
  Feb 17, 2025 231   Lamar L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 343   @ New Orleans W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 24, 2025 220   @ SE Louisiana L 63-70 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 316   Houston Christian W 69-65 67%    
  Mar 03, 2025 303   @ Incarnate Word L 68-70 42%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.7 1.1 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.6 7.4 2.2 0.1 16.0 5th
6th 0.5 5.3 9.4 2.7 0.2 18.0 6th
7th 0.2 3.6 8.2 3.0 0.2 15.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.7 3.6 0.2 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.9 0.4 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 2.4 0.6 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.7 8.6 15.2 18.2 19.1 15.6 10.2 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 16.7% 0.0    0.0
15-5 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.6% 9.1% 9.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 2.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
13-7 5.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.1 0.0 5.1
12-8 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.1
11-9 15.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 15.5
10-10 19.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.0
9-11 18.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.2
8-12 15.2% 15.2
7-13 8.6% 8.6
6-14 3.7% 3.7
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%