Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#332
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#162
Pace68.6#200
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#327
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#325
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.7% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.5
.500 or above 9.1% 22.8% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 43.6% 26.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 13.1% 7.5% 14.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 14   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 1%     0 - 1 -3.1 +1.8 -5.5
  Nov 11, 2024 52   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 3%     0 - 2 -3.6 -7.7 +3.7
  Nov 16, 2024 191   @ Rice L 63-74 15%    
  Nov 22, 2024 319   Louisiana Monroe W 70-68 57%    
  Nov 24, 2024 177   North Alabama L 70-76 30%    
  Nov 29, 2024 48   @ LSU L 62-85 2%    
  Dec 05, 2024 327   @ Incarnate Word L 75-78 38%    
  Dec 07, 2024 358   @ Houston Christian W 75-74 55%    
  Dec 14, 2024 119   @ California L 66-82 8%    
  Dec 29, 2024 23   @ Texas L 58-84 1%    
  Jan 04, 2025 212   Nicholls St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 06, 2025 99   McNeese St. L 63-75 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 13, 2025 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-77 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 276   SE Louisiana L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 20, 2025 347   New Orleans W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 171   @ Stephen F. Austin L 64-76 15%    
  Jan 27, 2025 280   @ Lamar L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 03, 2025 269   UT Rio Grande Valley L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 99   @ McNeese St. L 60-78 6%    
  Feb 10, 2025 212   @ Nicholls St. L 65-75 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 171   Stephen F. Austin L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 17, 2025 280   Lamar L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 347   @ New Orleans L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 24, 2025 276   @ SE Louisiana L 66-73 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 358   Houston Christian W 78-71 73%    
  Mar 03, 2025 327   @ Incarnate Word L 75-78 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.1 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.8 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 7.9 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.3 7.1 9.4 11.0 12.5 12.1 10.8 9.3 7.2 5.4 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 76.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 40.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 13.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 22.5% 22.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.5% 11.5% 11.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.2% 10.1% 10.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 2.0% 7.4% 7.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
13-7 3.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3
12-8 5.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.3
11-9 7.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.1
10-10 9.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.2
9-11 10.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.7
8-12 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
7-13 12.5% 12.5
6-14 11.0% 11.0
5-15 9.4% 9.4
4-16 7.1% 7.1
3-17 4.3% 4.3
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%