Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#313
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#259
Pace69.2#182
Improvement+0.7#114

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#334
First Shot-3.0#262
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#333
Layup/Dunks-3.4#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#310
Freethrows+1.5#107
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#248
First Shot-1.7#240
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#227
Layups/Dunks+3.0#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#255
Freethrows-1.8#280
Improvement+0.7#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 0.9% 1.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 13.0% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 44.8% 37.9% 48.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Neutral) - 36.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 45 - 56 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 67   @ SMU L 62-96 5%     0 - 1 -22.9 -10.6 -10.5
  Nov 09, 2024 111   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 20%     0 - 2 -28.5 -16.6 -9.6
  Nov 12, 2024 77   @ Florida St. L 52-72 5%     0 - 3 -9.5 -15.6 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 41-104 1%     0 - 4 -44.3 -25.7 -18.1
  Nov 21, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 49-72 2%     0 - 5 -6.5 -11.9 +3.6
  Nov 29, 2024 248   Iona L 67-71 36%    
  Nov 30, 2024 142   Hofstra L 62-72 19%    
  Dec 01, 2024 164   Indiana St. L 71-79 23%    
  Dec 08, 2024 84   @ Central Florida L 62-80 4%    
  Dec 16, 2024 172   @ UTEP L 65-76 17%    
  Dec 18, 2024 88   @ Oklahoma St. L 64-82 5%    
  Dec 29, 2024 358   Florida A&M W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 167   Texas Arlington L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 09, 2025 206   @ Southern Utah L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 11, 2025 316   @ Utah Tech L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 204   California Baptist L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 101   @ Grand Canyon L 65-81 7%    
  Jan 23, 2025 210   @ Abilene Christian L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 30, 2025 316   Utah Tech W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   Southern Utah L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 06, 2025 130   @ Seattle L 63-76 12%    
  Feb 08, 2025 122   @ Utah Valley L 62-76 11%    
  Feb 13, 2025 101   Grand Canyon L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 130   Seattle L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 167   @ Texas Arlington L 71-82 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 210   Abilene Christian L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 204   @ California Baptist L 65-74 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 122   Utah Valley L 65-73 25%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.2 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 4.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.1 4.6 0.8 0.0 16.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.7 8.0 10.1 5.2 1.0 0.0 27.3 8th
9th 2.6 7.7 10.3 8.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 32.4 9th
Total 2.6 7.9 13.1 16.9 17.0 14.5 11.0 7.6 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 84.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 52.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 16.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.2% 24.2% 24.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.6% 9.7% 9.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-6 1.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-7 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
8-8 4.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.6
7-9 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.5
6-10 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.9
5-11 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
4-12 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.0
3-13 16.9% 16.9
2-14 13.1% 13.1
1-15 7.9% 7.9
0-16 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%