Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#268
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#234
Pace65.1#265
Improvement+6.8#8

Offense
Total Offense-8.2#351
First Shot-5.4#319
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#329
Layup/Dunks-0.4#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#356
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement+2.5#72

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#105
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks+6.5#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#303
Freethrows-0.1#187
Improvement+4.3#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 42.7% 100.0% 28.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 20.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 31 - 71 - 15
Quad 49 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 43   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -19.5 -9.0 -8.7
  Nov 09, 2024 176   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 41%     0 - 2 -32.5 -19.1 -11.2
  Nov 12, 2024 85   @ Florida St. L 52-72 9%     0 - 3 -10.8 -17.2 +7.1
  Nov 17, 2024 27   @ Baylor L 41-104 3%     0 - 4 -45.5 -25.4 -19.5
  Nov 21, 2024 28   @ Michigan L 49-72 3%     0 - 5 -5.7 -10.8 +3.3
  Nov 29, 2024 250   Iona L 51-62 46%     0 - 6 -15.9 -14.7 -2.6
  Nov 30, 2024 221   Hofstra W 61-59 39%     1 - 6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3
  Dec 01, 2024 192   Indiana St. L 71-87 34%     1 - 7 -17.8 -4.5 -13.4
  Dec 08, 2024 79   @ Central Florida L 51-66 8%     1 - 8 -5.3 -15.4 +9.0
  Dec 16, 2024 150   @ UTEP L 62-67 19%     1 - 9 -1.7 -2.4 +0.3
  Dec 18, 2024 91   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-66 10%     1 - 10 +3.5 -4.6 +7.9
  Dec 29, 2024 324   Florida A&M W 70-60 73%     2 - 10 -2.5 -10.1 +7.5
  Jan 04, 2025 216   Texas Arlington W 77-74 49%     3 - 10 1 - 0 -2.7 +0.8 -3.5
  Jan 09, 2025 290   @ Southern Utah W 74-66 44%     4 - 10 2 - 0 +3.5 -0.2 +3.6
  Jan 11, 2025 295   @ Utah Tech L 54-58 45%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -8.7 -17.0 +7.9
  Jan 16, 2025 164   California Baptist W 67-57 39%     5 - 11 3 - 1 +7.0 +6.3 +2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 93   @ Grand Canyon L 64-88 10%     5 - 12 3 - 2 -15.6 -0.8 -15.2
  Jan 23, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian L 56-67 28%     5 - 13 3 - 3 -11.0 -13.6 +2.8
  Jan 30, 2025 295   Utah Tech W 61-54 66%     6 - 13 4 - 3 -3.2 -11.1 +8.8
  Feb 01, 2025 290   Southern Utah W 75-58 65%     7 - 13 5 - 3 +7.0 -0.9 +8.1
  Feb 06, 2025 153   @ Seattle L 54-91 19%     7 - 14 5 - 4 -33.8 -5.2 -35.6
  Feb 08, 2025 114   @ Utah Valley L 56-81 14%     7 - 15 5 - 5 -19.3 -9.2 -11.4
  Feb 13, 2025 93   Grand Canyon L 60-64 20%     7 - 16 5 - 6 -1.1 -5.9 +4.7
  Feb 15, 2025 153   Seattle W 67-64 36%     8 - 16 6 - 6 +0.8 -6.0 +6.7
  Feb 22, 2025 216   @ Texas Arlington L 57-67 29%     8 - 17 6 - 7 -10.3 -16.2 +5.7
  Feb 27, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 67-52 48%     9 - 17 7 - 7 +9.6 -2.9 +12.8
  Mar 06, 2025 164   @ California Baptist L 60-68 20%    
  Mar 08, 2025 114   Utah Valley L 62-68 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 17.9 5.9 23.8 3rd
4th 13.4 16.7 30.0 4th
5th 29.2 2.2 31.4 5th
6th 14.7 14.7 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 57.3 36.7 5.9 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 5.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.9
8-8 36.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.6 36.2
7-9 57.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.3 57.1
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 30.0%