UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#145
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#90
Pace77.7#27
Improvement+2.0#31

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#246
First Shot-2.2#240
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks-3.9#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#230
Freethrows+2.0#77
Improvement-0.6#264

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#85
First Shot+4.4#61
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#261
Layups/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#118
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement+2.6#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 10.6% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 73.2% 79.3% 57.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 77.3% 64.5%
Conference Champion 9.2% 10.6% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.0% 4.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round9.3% 10.6% 6.2%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 71.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 87   @ Washington L 73-79 20%     0 - 1 +3.6 -4.6 +9.2
  Nov 07, 2024 284   @ Idaho W 79-75 66%     1 - 1 +0.7 +0.9 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2024 76   @ Stanford L 65-79 18%     1 - 2 -3.5 -5.9 +2.9
  Nov 20, 2024 101   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 26%     2 - 2 +14.7 +0.5 +13.7
  Nov 25, 2024 208   Norfolk St. W 75-69 72%    
  Nov 30, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. L 66-73 25%    
  Dec 05, 2024 267   Cal Poly W 83-73 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 129   UC Santa Barbara W 76-74 56%    
  Dec 14, 2024 304   @ Sacramento St. W 70-64 70%    
  Dec 18, 2024 284   Idaho W 78-68 82%    
  Dec 21, 2024 247   @ Pepperdine W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 04, 2025 188   @ Cal St. Northridge L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 280   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 262   Long Beach St. W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 16, 2025 267   @ Cal Poly W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 23, 2025 181   Hawaii W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 30, 2025 179   @ UC Riverside L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 64   @ UC Irvine L 68-79 18%    
  Feb 06, 2025 262   @ Long Beach St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 280   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 13, 2025 179   UC Riverside W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 140   @ UC San Diego L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 188   Cal St. Northridge W 80-75 67%    
  Mar 02, 2025 181   @ Hawaii L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 06, 2025 64   UC Irvine L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 140   UC San Diego W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.9 4.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.2 5.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.9 5.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.8 8.8 10.7 12.3 12.3 11.1 9.9 7.6 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 92.4% 1.2    1.1 0.2
17-3 75.6% 2.2    1.6 0.7 0.0
16-4 46.7% 2.3    1.3 0.9 0.1
15-5 24.3% 1.9    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 8.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.3 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 56.3% 47.9% 8.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0%
19-1 0.4% 49.1% 44.1% 5.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8.9%
18-2 1.3% 34.7% 34.0% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.9%
17-3 3.0% 33.9% 33.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0
16-4 5.0% 29.3% 29.3% 12.5 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5
15-5 7.6% 23.7% 23.7% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.8
14-6 9.9% 16.5% 16.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 8.3
13-7 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 13.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 9.9
12-8 12.3% 5.9% 5.9% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.5
11-9 12.3% 3.5% 3.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.9
10-10 10.7% 1.9% 1.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
9-11 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
8-12 6.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.8
7-13 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
6-14 3.0% 3.0
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.4% 9.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 90.6 0.0%