Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#119
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#189
Pace85.6#2
Improvement+0.8#101

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#201
First Shot-4.6#301
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#30
Layup/Dunks-3.0#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#258
Freethrows+1.3#120
Improvement-0.5#250

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#72
First Shot+4.3#67
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#202
Layups/Dunks+5.8#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
Freethrows-0.1#193
Improvement+1.3#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 19.5% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 2.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 11.5 12.6
.500 or above 65.1% 86.5% 64.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.6% 82.9% 67.9%
Conference Champion 12.0% 20.0% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.6% 4.2%
First Four0.3% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round10.7% 19.0% 10.3%
Second Round2.1% 5.1% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 37 - 58 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 82   Wichita St. L 84-91 45%     0 - 1 -2.8 +0.3 -1.9
  Nov 09, 2024 101   @ Grand Canyon L 72-74 33%     0 - 2 +5.7 -4.1 +9.9
  Nov 17, 2024 150   Lipscomb W 66-61 70%     1 - 2 +2.6 -13.7 +15.9
  Nov 20, 2024 325   Jackson St. W 79-62 92%     2 - 2 +4.7 -2.6 +6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 8   @ Kentucky L 76-94 4%    
  Nov 30, 2024 193   Marshall W 83-76 75%    
  Dec 07, 2024 274   @ Evansville W 82-76 71%    
  Dec 10, 2024 298   Tennessee St. W 85-72 89%    
  Dec 14, 2024 115   Murray St. W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 17, 2024 130   Seattle W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 29, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 71-84 11%    
  Jan 02, 2025 73   @ Liberty L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 264   @ Florida International W 81-75 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 161   Jacksonville St. W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 155   Kennesaw St. W 92-86 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 146   @ Middle Tennessee L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 23, 2025 89   @ Louisiana Tech L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 111   @ Sam Houston St. L 78-81 38%    
  Jan 30, 2025 172   UTEP W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 170   New Mexico St. W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 155   @ Kennesaw St. L 88-89 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 161   @ Jacksonville St. W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 146   Middle Tennessee W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 111   Sam Houston St. W 81-78 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 89   Louisiana Tech L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 172   @ UTEP W 78-77 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 170   @ New Mexico St. W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 06, 2025 264   Florida International W 84-72 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 73   Liberty L 71-73 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.4 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.6 5.9 4.6 1.7 0.2 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.6 6.0 8.2 10.2 11.7 12.6 12.7 10.9 8.6 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 95.3% 1.7    1.5 0.1
15-3 83.7% 3.0    2.2 0.7 0.0
14-4 56.2% 3.4    1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 26.8% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 7.3 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 71.1% 60.5% 10.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.7%
17-1 0.6% 51.8% 43.6% 8.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14.5%
16-2 1.8% 46.3% 41.3% 5.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 8.5%
15-3 3.5% 30.2% 29.6% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 2.5 0.9%
14-4 6.0% 26.0% 25.8% 0.3% 12.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 0.4%
13-5 8.6% 18.6% 18.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 7.0
12-6 10.9% 15.5% 15.5% 12.6 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.2
11-7 12.7% 11.0% 11.0% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.3
10-8 12.6% 7.0% 7.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.7
9-9 11.7% 6.0% 6.0% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.0
8-10 10.2% 4.0% 4.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.8
7-11 8.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.0
6-12 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 3.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.8% 10.6% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 4.4 2.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 89.2 0.2%