Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   1   23 - 3 15 - 1 27 - 4 19 - 1 +23.6      +13.2 3 +10.3 4 64.5 283 +22.0 3 +24.6 1
21 Louisville 98.1%   7   20 - 6 13 - 2 24 - 7 17 - 3 +15.8      +8.7 19 +7.1 31 71.5 88 +15.9 23 +20.2 2
23 Clemson 93.7%   7   21 - 5 13 - 2 25 - 6 17 - 3 +15.6      +8.3 24 +7.3 28 61.7 342 +15.7 24 +19.7 3
37 SMU 45.7%   11   20 - 6 11 - 4 23 - 8 14 - 6 +12.6      +8.1 26 +4.4 66 72.6 66 +12.3 45 +13.2 5
40 North Carolina 26.2%   16 - 11 9 - 6 19 - 13 12 - 8 +12.1      +7.2 33 +4.9 58 76.4 22 +11.9 47 +11.5 6
52 Pittsburgh 20.5%   16 - 10 7 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.6      +7.1 34 +3.5 79 65.9 237 +10.4 55 +7.4 9
55 Wake Forest 41.2%   11   19 - 7 11 - 4 22 - 9 14 - 6 +10.6      +2.9 96 +7.7 21 67.0 211 +14.8 30 +15.3 4
82 Florida St. 0.5%   16 - 10 7 - 8 17 - 14 8 - 12 +6.9      +1.2 135 +5.7 45 74.5 42 +6.6 82 +5.2 10
88 Stanford 1.1%   16 - 10 8 - 7 18 - 13 10 - 10 +6.3      +4.2 76 +2.1 107 67.5 198 +7.8 77 +9.2 7
93 Virginia 0.1%   13 - 13 6 - 9 15 - 16 8 - 12 +5.2      +3.2 90 +2.0 112 55.3 363 +5.6 88 +4.5 12
95 Notre Dame 0.1%   11 - 15 5 - 10 13 - 18 7 - 13 +5.1      +3.9 80 +1.2 137 63.0 315 +2.0 139 +1.8 15
99 Georgia Tech 0.1%   13 - 13 7 - 8 15 - 16 9 - 11 +4.9      +1.1 141 +3.7 74 71.7 80 +4.3 103 +7.7 8
103 North Carolina St. 0.0%   10 - 16 3 - 12 12 - 19 5 - 15 +4.3      +1.5 123 +2.7 97 63.4 307 +0.6 156 -0.7 16
108 Syracuse 0.0%   11 - 16 5 - 11 13 - 18 7 - 13 +3.5      +2.5 103 +1.0 146 70.8 109 +3.1 122 +2.9 13
112 California 0.0%   12 - 14 5 - 10 14 - 17 7 - 13 +3.2      +3.9 79 -0.7 190 68.2 182 +2.9 125 +2.3 14
128 Virginia Tech 0.0%   11 - 15 6 - 9 12 - 19 7 - 13 +1.8      +1.2 134 +0.5 161 64.0 292 +2.2 132 +4.9 11
152 Miami (FL) 0.0%   6 - 20 2 - 13 7 - 24 3 - 17 +0.6      +5.0 66 -4.4 308 68.3 176 -5.8 264 -3.4 18
174 Boston College 0.0%   11 - 15 3 - 12 12 - 19 4 - 16 -0.6      -0.5 191 -0.1 178 66.7 217 +0.4 161 -1.6 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.0 97.7 1.6 0.7
Louisville 2.1 15.4 62.4 21.7 0.6 0.1
Clemson 2.4 9.7 47.2 41.5 1.5 0.1
SMU 4.2 0.0 1.0 8.8 60.7 25.9 3.5 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 5.8 0.0 5.0 19.6 68.6 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 7.6 0.0 0.4 9.7 42.8 28.6 13.2 4.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 4.4 0.0 0.1 3.0 53.1 40.1 3.5 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 9.8 0.0 0.8 4.5 11.3 25.2 29.6 15.3 9.2 3.6 0.5
Stanford 7.3 0.3 1.5 15.6 49.0 24.3 7.1 2.0 0.3 0.1
Virginia 11.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.3 13.0 20.8 18.6 18.0 12.4 7.5 3.4 0.3
Notre Dame 12.3 0.5 1.6 5.0 10.8 16.8 20.0 16.5 15.0 11.2 2.5 0.1
Georgia Tech 8.5 0.0 0.1 3.3 20.6 25.4 32.0 12.6 3.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.0 5.9 10.7 15.4 42.1 13.3 5.1
Syracuse 12.8 0.1 0.4 3.1 8.6 15.2 17.7 15.8 18.5 14.3 6.1 0.3
California 12.8 0.2 1.0 3.0 8.1 12.7 17.0 17.3 19.4 16.9 4.2 0.5
Virginia Tech 11.5 0.1 0.7 2.3 9.0 17.7 22.7 19.9 13.6 9.6 4.1 0.4
Miami (FL) 17.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.0 17.6 31.3 48.5
Boston College 16.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.7 6.5 24.6 51.6 13.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 19 - 1 0.2 3.4 26.6 69.8
Louisville 17 - 3 0.0 0.2 2.6 12.5 36.8 47.9
Clemson 17 - 3 0.0 0.4 4.4 20.7 45.2 29.2
SMU 14 - 6 0.4 4.5 16.8 32.4 32.2 13.7
North Carolina 12 - 8 0.2 3.1 15.8 38.0 35.1 7.8
Pittsburgh 10 - 10 0.4 4.7 19.8 37.0 31.2 7.0
Wake Forest 14 - 6 0.5 4.8 20.3 40.0 31.8 2.6
Florida St. 8 - 12 17.4 37.0 32.1 11.8 1.7 0.1
Stanford 10 - 10 2.0 14.5 34.3 34.0 13.6 1.6
Virginia 8 - 12 13.6 34.3 32.0 16.3 3.4 0.4
Notre Dame 7 - 13 6.7 26.2 37.6 23.3 5.8 0.5
Georgia Tech 9 - 11 3.1 16.7 34.0 32.3 12.5 1.5
North Carolina St. 5 - 15 8.5 24.0 33.0 23.0 9.9 1.6
Syracuse 7 - 13 9.9 31.8 38.0 18.1 2.2
California 7 - 13 9.6 35.1 35.0 16.5 3.6 0.2
Virginia Tech 7 - 13 16.3 38.3 31.9 11.6 1.9 0.1
Miami (FL) 3 - 17 17.0 39.1 33.1 9.8 1.1 0.0
Boston College 4 - 16 30.1 41.9 22.1 5.3 0.7 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 97.7% 79.9 13.5 4.3 0.0
Louisville 15.4% 1.2 9.9 4.3 0.0
Clemson 9.7% 0.5 4.9 4.3 0.0
SMU 0.0% 0.0
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0
Florida St.
Stanford
Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech
North Carolina St.
Syracuse
California
Virginia Tech
Miami (FL)
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 65.0% 35.0% 1   64.6 32.2 3.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 98.1% 12.6% 85.5% 7   0.4 1.9 4.6 8.8 14.4 19.9 21.6 15.8 8.5 2.1 0.2 1.9 97.8%
Clemson 93.7% 12.5% 81.2% 7   0.2 0.7 2.1 5.1 7.9 11.7 18.4 18.9 17.2 9.1 2.5 6.3 92.8%
SMU 45.7% 3.9% 41.8% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.2 5.6 13.0 21.6 1.5 54.3 43.5%
North Carolina 26.2% 2.5% 23.7% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 5.9 15.2 1.9 73.8 24.3%
Pittsburgh 20.5% 1.1% 19.4% 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.7 13.4 1.9 79.5 19.6%
Wake Forest 41.2% 1.8% 39.4% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.7 10.7 23.9 1.6 58.8 40.1%
Florida St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1 0.4 0.1 99.5 0.3%
Stanford 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1 0.8 0.2 98.9 0.8%
Virginia 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.6% 82.3% 61.2% 42.1% 27.4% 17.2%
Louisville 98.1% 0.1% 98.1% 68.8% 29.1% 12.2% 4.9% 1.7% 0.5%
Clemson 93.7% 1.8% 93.0% 59.4% 22.5% 9.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5%
SMU 45.7% 20.6% 36.2% 16.1% 4.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina 26.2% 15.7% 19.1% 7.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 20.5% 14.4% 13.4% 4.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 41.2% 23.5% 28.6% 9.8% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.3 0.0 0.8 18.3 42.3 30.7 7.4 0.5
1st Round 100.0% 3.9 0.0 1.8 31.0 45.8 18.9 2.4 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 2.7 0.0 7.0 35.1 43.5 13.2 1.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 92.3% 1.4 7.7 48.8 35.9 7.4 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 71.7% 0.9 28.3 58.1 13.0 0.6 0.0
Final Four 48.1% 0.5 51.9 44.9 3.2 0.0
Final Game 30.1% 0.3 69.9 29.6 0.5
Champion 18.2% 0.2 81.8 18.2