Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Duke 97.5%   2   3 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 16 - 4 +19.3      +9.4 11 +9.9 3 70.4 146 +8.1 71 0.0 1
8 North Carolina 94.1%   3   2 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 15 - 5 +17.6      +10.8 4 +6.8 20 79.3 15 +9.5 55 0.0 1
23 Pittsburgh 80.7%   7   5 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +13.6      +7.0 32 +6.6 21 69.6 169 +13.5 30 0.0 1
38 Miami (FL) 44.6%   10   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +11.5      +7.8 22 +3.7 75 70.9 131 -2.3 216 0.0 1
46 Louisville 39.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +9.9      +5.6 44 +4.3 64 73.2 77 +3.9 124 0.0 1
49 Clemson 29.6%   3 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +9.5      +5.6 46 +3.9 70 66.0 275 +5.7 95 0.0 1
52 North Carolina St. 32.9%   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +9.3      +5.0 52 +4.3 63 71.2 119 +5.4 102 0.0 1
53 Notre Dame 38.4%   4 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +9.3      +4.1 71 +5.2 43 65.2 293 +12.6 34 0.0 1
58 Virginia 38.7%   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +9.0      +1.8 124 +7.3 17 55.1 364 +15.3 20 0.0 1
66 SMU 24.6%   4 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +8.4      +5.6 45 +2.8 96 76.2 41 +4.2 122 0.0 1
75 Wake Forest 31.2%   5 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +7.7      +4.2 65 +3.6 78 70.1 154 +14.4 25 0.0 1
76 Stanford 20.3%   5 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +7.7      +5.1 50 +2.6 100 65.4 289 +7.7 77 0.0 1
81 Florida St. 19.0%   4 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +7.2      +1.9 119 +5.2 44 75.6 49 +8.4 65 0.0 1
93 Syracuse 12.4%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +5.6      +4.7 60 +0.8 143 75.3 52 +7.2 81 0.0 1
102 California 7.8%   3 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 13 +4.7      +2.3 113 +2.3 104 70.6 138 +10.7 43 0.0 1
105 Georgia Tech 2.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 13 +4.3      +2.3 115 +1.9 113 79.2 16 -5.8 263 0.0 1
118 Virginia Tech 2.3%   3 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 +3.4      +1.1 143 +2.3 105 68.6 197 -2.6 218 0.0 1
138 Boston College 1.1%   3 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 16 6 - 14 +1.7      +0.7 163 +1.0 137 67.4 241 +5.7 94 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 2.2 51.1 21.2 10.9 6.1 3.8 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 3.2 32.4 22.4 13.7 9.3 6.6 4.7 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 5.1 10.9 15.6 14.6 12.4 9.8 8.3 6.7 5.3 4.2 3.4 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1
Miami (FL) 6.5 6.7 9.9 11.0 10.7 9.7 8.5 7.8 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5
Louisville 8.0 4.0 6.5 7.9 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.2 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.4
Clemson 7.7 3.6 6.3 8.2 8.7 8.9 8.7 8.1 7.5 7.2 6.2 5.9 4.8 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.0
North Carolina St. 8.4 2.6 5.1 6.6 7.5 7.8 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.2 7.1 6.3 5.9 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.0 2.4 1.4
Notre Dame 7.8 3.4 6.5 8.1 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.2 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.4 1.6 1.0
Virginia 8.4 2.9 5.1 7.0 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.8 6.2 5.8 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.3 2.3 1.5
SMU 9.0 2.0 4.1 5.5 6.6 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.0 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.3 4.5 3.8 2.9 1.7
Wake Forest 10.2 0.9 2.1 3.6 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 5.4 4.4 2.7
Stanford 9.5 1.1 2.9 4.6 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.2 4.3 3.1 2.0
Florida St. 10.5 0.8 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.7 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.3 6.7 6.2 5.0 3.3
Syracuse 11.7 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.8 8.1 7.2
California 12.3 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.6 6.1 6.8 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.5 10.2 9.4 7.4
Georgia Tech 12.6 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.6 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.3 8.5 8.9 9.6 10.3 9.8 9.7
Virginia Tech 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.7 6.5 7.9 8.8 10.0 12.1 13.7 14.7
Boston College 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.7 5.6 6.9 8.3 10.1 12.5 16.0 21.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 16.2 17.1 15.3 10.5 4.2
North Carolina 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 5.0 7.4 9.8 12.3 14.1 14.7 13.1 9.8 5.7 1.7
Pittsburgh 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.6 10.2 12.3 13.1 13.4 12.0 9.1 5.8 2.8 1.1 0.2
Miami (FL) 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.2 8.1 10.3 11.6 12.4 12.2 10.5 8.2 5.8 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1
Louisville 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.0 6.7 8.8 10.3 11.1 11.2 10.7 9.5 7.7 5.8 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Clemson 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.3 10.4 11.6 12.3 12.0 10.2 8.1 5.7 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
North Carolina St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.2 9.8 11.5 12.4 12.2 10.5 9.1 6.7 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.1 8.4 10.5 11.9 12.4 11.7 10.2 8.1 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Virginia 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.7 9.4 11.2 11.8 11.7 10.7 9.0 6.5 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
SMU 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.3 8.4 10.4 11.8 12.4 11.6 10.3 7.9 5.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 6.3 8.6 10.7 12.5 12.8 11.8 10.1 8.0 5.7 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.7 6.9 9.5 11.6 12.6 12.7 11.5 9.3 7.1 4.8 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Florida St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.4 6.9 8.9 11.4 12.2 12.4 11.5 9.5 7.7 5.1 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.5 6.9 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.8 11.0 9.3 7.3 5.3 3.4 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 2.6 5.0 8.0 10.6 12.7 12.8 12.4 10.6 8.5 6.1 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.8 8.7 10.9 12.7 12.8 11.9 10.1 8.1 5.8 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 6 - 14 0.6 2.6 5.3 8.6 11.2 12.9 13.0 12.3 10.5 7.9 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 6 - 14 1.2 3.9 7.3 10.8 13.2 14.1 13.1 11.1 8.8 6.4 4.4 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 51.1% 38.3 10.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 32.4% 22.1 8.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 10.9% 6.0 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 6.7% 3.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisville 4.0% 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 3.6% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 3.4% 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia 2.9% 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stanford 1.1% 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 97.5% 36.4% 61.2% 2   26.5 20.8 14.6 11.3 7.6 5.4 4.2 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.5 96.1%
North Carolina 94.1% 25.9% 68.2% 3   17.6 16.8 13.6 11.5 9.2 7.4 5.8 4.5 3.2 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.9 92.0%
Pittsburgh 80.7% 9.6% 71.1% 7   3.1 5.2 7.3 9.0 9.4 9.7 8.8 7.9 7.7 6.6 5.5 0.5 19.3 78.7%
Miami (FL) 44.6% 5.8% 38.8% 10   0.6 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.1 4.0 4.9 6.2 6.4 7.3 6.1 0.5 0.0 55.4 41.2%
Louisville 39.7% 3.6% 36.2% 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.3 5.8 0.6 60.3 37.5%
Clemson 29.6% 3.2% 26.4% 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.6 5.6 5.7 0.6 0.0 70.4 27.3%
North Carolina St. 32.9% 2.6% 30.3% 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.4 5.2 6.3 6.4 0.6 0.0 67.1 31.1%
Notre Dame 38.4% 2.9% 35.5% 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.9 5.9 7.0 7.5 0.7 0.0 61.6 36.6%
Virginia 38.7% 2.8% 35.9% 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.9 5.8 6.9 7.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 61.3 36.9%
SMU 24.6% 1.9% 22.7% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.2 5.2 5.4 0.5 75.4 23.1%
Wake Forest 31.2% 1.3% 29.8% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.0 4.2 5.3 5.7 6.7 0.9 0.0 68.8 30.2%
Stanford 20.3% 1.2% 19.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.4 5.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 79.7 19.3%
Florida St. 19.0% 1.1% 17.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2 3.1 4.2 4.9 0.5 0.0 81.0 18.1%
Syracuse 12.4% 0.7% 11.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 87.6 11.8%
California 7.8% 0.4% 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.5 0.3 92.2 7.5%
Georgia Tech 2.8% 0.4% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 97.2 2.4%
Virginia Tech 2.3% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.1 97.7 2.1%
Boston College 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 98.9 1.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 97.5% 0.9% 97.2% 87.3% 61.7% 38.7% 22.8% 12.9% 7.0%
North Carolina 94.1% 1.8% 93.3% 78.7% 50.6% 29.0% 15.7% 8.2% 4.3%
Pittsburgh 80.7% 5.1% 78.2% 53.4% 25.6% 11.4% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8%
Miami (FL) 44.6% 5.6% 42.0% 25.8% 10.5% 4.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
Louisville 39.7% 5.5% 37.0% 20.7% 7.8% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Clemson 29.6% 5.3% 27.0% 14.7% 5.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
North Carolina St. 32.9% 6.0% 29.8% 15.7% 5.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Notre Dame 38.4% 7.1% 34.6% 18.1% 6.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia 38.7% 7.0% 35.0% 18.2% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
SMU 24.6% 5.0% 21.9% 10.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 31.2% 6.8% 27.2% 12.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Stanford 20.3% 5.2% 17.4% 8.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Florida St. 19.0% 4.8% 16.4% 7.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 12.4% 2.0% 11.2% 5.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
California 7.8% 2.4% 6.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 2.8% 0.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 2.3% 0.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.2 0.0 1.1 7.1 21.3 31.6 24.7 11.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.8 0.2 2.1 11.7 27.3 31.4 19.3 6.7 1.3 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 3.8 0.1 1.5 10.7 28.2 32.7 19.6 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 94.0% 1.9 6.0 28.1 39.9 20.6 4.7 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 71.7% 1.0 28.3 47.3 21.0 3.3 0.2 0.0
Final Four 44.5% 0.5 55.6 38.5 5.7 0.2 0.0
Final Game 24.6% 0.3 75.4 23.6 1.0
Champion 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0