Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Iowa St. 99.8%   1   9 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 15 - 5 +19.4      +11.2 8 +8.3 7 71.7 102 +22.0 6 0.0 1
6 Houston 97.6%   2   7 - 3 0 - 0 23 - 8 15 - 5 +19.1      +8.1 21 +11.1 3 60.2 354 +10.7 54 0.0 1
10 Kansas 97.9%   3   8 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +17.2      +8.2 17 +9.0 5 71.5 106 +17.6 15 0.0 1
12 Baylor 92.1%   3   7 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +16.1      +11.5 6 +4.6 58 64.9 282 +16.5 20 0.0 1
17 Arizona 70.0%   7   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 13 12 - 8 +15.2      +7.7 27 +7.5 13 77.8 18 +5.5 97 0.0 1
24 Texas Tech 73.6%   8   8 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +13.9      +8.2 16 +5.7 39 66.3 254 +8.3 76 0.0 1
26 Cincinnati 84.6%   7   9 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 9 +13.7      +5.1 54 +8.6 6 66.7 240 +16.2 21 0.0 1
39 West Virginia 68.6%   8   8 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +11.7      +4.9 56 +6.8 24 66.9 234 +16.1 22 0.0 1
40 BYU 53.1%   10   9 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +11.5      +7.6 29 +3.9 80 71.4 111 +9.1 69 0.0 1
62 Arizona St. 39.9%   8 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +9.0      +3.8 80 +5.2 50 71.5 107 +16.9 18 0.0 1
66 Utah 18.4%   8 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 12 +8.5      +4.0 75 +4.6 61 74.0 59 +3.9 108 0.0 1
68 Kansas St. 13.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.3      +3.9 79 +4.4 67 68.6 188 +2.5 132 0.0 1
75 Colorado 23.6%   8 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 13 +7.5      +3.1 93 +4.4 66 68.9 181 +14.9 31 0.0 1
84 Central Florida 13.9%   8 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 13 +6.7      +2.5 108 +4.3 73 70.7 130 +10.8 53 0.0 1
88 TCU 6.1%   6 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 7 - 13 +6.4      -0.1 177 +6.5 29 70.6 134 +4.6 106 0.0 1
97 Oklahoma St. 5.6%   7 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +5.6      +2.4 111 +3.2 94 75.6 35 +7.7 83 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Iowa St. 2.7 38.2 22.4 13.9 9.1 6.0 4.1 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 3.0 33.3 21.0 14.4 10.2 7.0 5.0 3.2 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas 4.0 18.7 17.1 15.7 12.8 10.4 8.0 5.8 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Baylor 4.8 12.1 13.8 14.0 12.6 11.3 9.9 8.0 5.8 4.2 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Arizona 5.7 7.9 10.4 11.6 11.7 11.4 10.5 9.4 7.7 5.9 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2
Texas Tech 6.1 6.2 8.4 10.2 11.5 11.5 11.0 9.8 8.4 6.7 5.2 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.3
Cincinnati 6.2 5.8 8.5 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.6 9.6 8.1 7.2 5.2 4.4 3.0 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4
West Virginia 8.1 1.9 3.6 5.3 6.9 8.3 9.2 9.9 10.3 9.6 8.5 7.7 6.2 5.0 3.7 2.5 1.3
BYU 8.1 1.9 3.6 5.4 6.7 8.2 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.4 8.6 7.7 6.4 5.2 3.8 2.6 1.5
Arizona St. 10.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.5 5.4 6.6 8.2 8.9 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.2 8.4 7.4 5.3
Utah 10.5 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.9 6.3 7.9 8.9 9.6 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.0 7.8 6.0
Kansas St. 11.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.0 5.4 6.8 8.3 9.1 10.0 10.3 10.8 10.3 9.7 8.0
Colorado 11.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.5 4.7 6.4 7.5 8.8 9.6 10.7 11.1 11.2 11.1 9.9
Central Florida 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.5 9.9 10.8 11.8 12.3 12.1 11.5
TCU 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.6 5.2 6.7 8.0 9.4 10.6 11.8 12.7 13.1 12.7
Oklahoma St. 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.7 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.1 10.0 11.6 13.1 16.2 18.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iowa St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.3 7.0 10.4 13.5 16.2 16.3 13.6 9.1 4.3 1.1
Houston 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.3 8.3 11.4 14.1 15.2 15.1 12.2 7.7 3.5 0.8
Kansas 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 6.1 8.9 11.9 14.2 15.0 13.9 10.7 6.9 3.4 1.2 0.2
Baylor 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.8 8.6 11.5 13.3 14.6 13.4 11.0 7.8 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.1
Arizona 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.2 5.4 8.1 10.9 12.9 13.8 13.3 11.5 8.4 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
Texas Tech 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.2 11.7 13.3 13.9 12.9 10.0 7.2 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Cincinnati 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.4 6.6 9.4 11.7 13.3 13.4 12.1 10.1 7.2 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.9 8.9 11.0 13.2 13.4 12.6 10.6 8.1 5.1 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
BYU 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.2 8.9 11.4 12.8 13.6 12.3 10.4 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.3 8.6 11.5 13.2 13.4 12.7 10.5 8.0 5.7 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.2 9.3 12.0 13.7 13.6 12.4 10.2 7.3 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 7 - 13 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.5 7.6 10.9 13.1 13.9 13.0 11.4 8.9 6.0 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.3 8.9 11.6 13.6 14.4 12.9 10.2 7.9 5.5 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 7 - 13 0.2 0.9 3.0 6.2 9.6 13.1 14.5 14.4 12.9 9.8 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
TCU 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.5 10.5 13.5 14.7 14.4 12.1 9.5 6.2 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 6 - 14 0.5 2.3 5.4 9.4 12.9 14.8 14.7 13.2 10.3 7.1 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iowa St. 38.2% 25.6 9.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Houston 33.3% 22.0 8.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kansas 18.7% 11.1 5.4 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Baylor 12.1% 6.6 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arizona 7.9% 4.1 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 6.2% 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 5.8% 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 1.9% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
BYU 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iowa St. 99.8% 25.5% 74.3% 1   33.2 29.0 17.0 9.8 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.7%
Houston 97.6% 23.5% 74.1% 2   19.2 20.9 16.7 13.4 9.2 6.6 4.9 2.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.4 96.9%
Kansas 97.9% 14.3% 83.6% 3   14.7 18.7 18.8 15.0 11.0 7.6 4.7 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.2 2.1 97.5%
Baylor 92.1% 10.9% 81.1% 3   8.0 13.1 15.1 14.9 12.3 9.0 6.0 4.0 3.2 2.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.9 91.1%
Arizona 70.0% 8.1% 61.9% 7   1.8 3.5 5.7 7.9 9.1 8.6 8.9 6.9 5.3 5.3 5.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 67.3%
Texas Tech 73.6% 5.5% 68.1% 8   1.0 2.2 4.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 10.9 11.1 9.2 7.4 5.1 0.3 26.4 72.0%
Cincinnati 84.6% 5.2% 79.4% 7   2.0 4.3 7.5 9.6 10.4 11.6 10.7 9.3 7.9 6.4 4.5 0.4 15.4 83.8%
West Virginia 68.6% 2.5% 66.1% 8   0.4 1.2 3.2 5.1 7.1 9.0 9.8 10.1 8.1 6.7 7.2 0.8 0.0 31.4 67.8%
BYU 53.1% 2.1% 51.0% 10   0.2 0.5 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.2 7.2 9.0 8.9 8.1 6.1 0.7 46.9 52.1%
Arizona St. 39.9% 0.7% 39.3% 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.6 5.8 7.2 1.1 0.0 60.1 39.5%
Utah 18.4% 0.6% 17.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.1 3.9 0.3 81.6 17.9%
Kansas St. 13.4% 0.4% 13.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 86.6 13.0%
Colorado 23.6% 0.3% 23.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.4 5.2 0.7 0.0 76.4 23.4%
Central Florida 13.9% 0.2% 13.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 0.4 86.1 13.7%
TCU 6.1% 0.2% 6.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 93.9 6.0%
Oklahoma St. 5.6% 0.1% 5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 0.2 94.4 5.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iowa St. 99.8% 0.2% 99.7% 94.1% 68.0% 42.9% 24.6% 13.3% 6.9%
Houston 97.6% 1.0% 97.3% 87.9% 60.8% 37.0% 21.2% 11.8% 6.2%
Kansas 97.9% 1.4% 97.2% 84.4% 53.5% 28.5% 14.1% 6.8% 3.1%
Baylor 92.1% 3.5% 90.6% 74.1% 43.3% 21.3% 10.2% 4.7% 2.0%
Arizona 70.0% 6.5% 67.4% 49.6% 25.7% 12.5% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1%
Texas Tech 73.6% 5.0% 71.4% 47.1% 20.6% 9.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Cincinnati 84.6% 4.6% 82.4% 56.3% 25.5% 10.7% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7%
West Virginia 68.6% 7.6% 64.7% 37.7% 13.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
BYU 53.1% 6.4% 49.9% 27.8% 9.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Arizona St. 39.9% 8.2% 35.4% 17.3% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah 18.4% 3.9% 16.3% 7.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Kansas St. 13.4% 3.3% 11.8% 5.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 23.6% 5.7% 20.4% 9.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 13.9% 3.8% 11.7% 4.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 6.1% 1.9% 5.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 5.6% 1.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.6 0.0 0.1 1.9 12.3 33.0 34.0 15.5 2.9 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.3 0.0 0.3 3.8 18.8 36.7 29.4 9.7 1.3 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 6.1 0.1 1.2 7.3 22.2 33.8 24.9 9.0 1.4 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.3 0.4 4.4 18.1 33.1 29.0 12.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 91.1% 1.8 8.9 32.3 37.7 17.4 3.5 0.3 0.0
Final Four 66.6% 0.9 33.4 46.9 17.7 2.0 0.1
Final Game 40.2% 0.4 59.8 36.4 3.8
Champion 21.0% 0.2 79.0 21.0