Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Houston 97.6%   1   2 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 5 +19.7      +9.3 12 +10.4 1 60.5 356 +8.1 58 0.0 1
5 Kansas 98.3%   1   3 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +19.0      +10.1 7 +8.9 5 74.4 64 +24.2 3 0.0 1
8 Arizona 91.5%   3   2 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 7 +17.5      +9.5 10 +7.9 11 78.5 21 +2.5 146 0.0 1
11 Iowa St. 86.9%   4   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +16.4      +6.3 34 +10.1 2 67.9 225 +3.9 119 0.0 1
13 Baylor 83.4%   3   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +15.1      +10.1 6 +5.0 47 64.9 311 +18.2 12 0.0 1
14 Texas Tech 81.0%   4   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 8 +14.9      +8.6 15 +6.3 25 66.3 270 +5.1 98 0.0 1
22 Cincinnati 68.7%   6   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.0      +6.8 29 +6.1 28 68.1 216 +1.3 167 0.0 1
32 BYU 62.5%   7   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 10 +12.1      +7.7 19 +4.4 66 71.4 118 +6.4 84 0.0 1
42 Kansas St. 47.2%   9   2 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 11 +10.7      +4.6 62 +6.1 29 68.3 209 +4.1 113 0.0 1
51 Utah 35.9%   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 12 +9.5      +5.1 53 +4.4 63 73.2 78 +0.2 191 0.0 1
53 TCU 38.4%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +9.3      +4.7 60 +4.6 57 73.6 74 +7.4 68 0.0 1
57 West Virginia 33.8%   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +8.9      +4.4 64 +4.4 64 70.1 159 +11.1 37 0.0 1
66 Central Florida 38.6%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +8.4      +3.6 84 +4.7 55 70.7 137 +19.2 9 0.0 1
72 Arizona St. 26.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 +7.8      +2.8 98 +5.0 48 71.5 115 +13.4 27 0.0 1
76 Colorado 24.9%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 13 +7.6      +2.7 101 +4.9 51 68.9 194 +7.1 73 0.0 1
87 Oklahoma St. 19.1%   2 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 6 - 14 +6.5      +2.4 107 +4.2 69 72.4 99 +7.4 71 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 3.2 33.1 19.7 13.7 9.9 7.2 5.1 3.7 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kansas 3.6 27.8 18.8 14.2 10.8 7.9 5.9 4.2 3.3 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
Arizona 4.5 18.9 15.9 13.0 11.1 9.3 7.5 6.0 4.9 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3
Iowa St. 5.1 14.4 13.6 12.8 11.4 9.8 8.2 7.0 5.8 4.6 3.6 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.4
Baylor 6.1 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.4 10.5 9.6 8.5 7.3 6.3 5.1 4.5 3.3 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.5
Texas Tech 6.0 8.2 10.1 11.0 11.0 10.1 9.9 8.5 7.4 6.0 4.9 4.1 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.6
Cincinnati 7.2 5.2 6.7 8.2 9.0 9.2 8.8 8.5 7.8 7.0 6.7 6.1 4.8 4.2 3.4 2.7 1.7
BYU 7.9 3.4 5.0 6.6 7.8 8.2 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.1 7.4 6.8 6.0 4.9 4.1 3.3 2.2
Kansas St. 9.2 2.1 3.0 4.3 5.0 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.1 7.3 6.7 5.7 4.6
Utah 9.8 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.4 5.3 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.5 8.4 8.8 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.0 5.3
TCU 9.9 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.1 6.3 6.9 7.7 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.0 8.9 7.9 6.8 5.5
West Virginia 10.5 0.8 1.6 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.1 5.6 6.6 7.8 8.2 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.9 9.5 7.7
Central Florida 10.7 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.8 6.5 7.6 8.5 9.5 9.5 10.0 9.7 9.5 8.5
Arizona St. 11.4 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.9 4.5 5.6 6.8 7.7 8.7 9.1 10.6 11.5 11.9 11.6
Colorado 11.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.6 5.8 6.6 7.7 8.7 9.8 10.9 10.9 11.7 11.8
Oklahoma St. 12.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.9 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.5 7.7 9.1 10.8 12.7 14.3 16.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.7 7.9 10.2 12.7 13.9 13.6 12.4 8.8 4.8 1.7
Kansas 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.6 7.0 8.6 11.2 13.0 13.5 12.7 10.9 7.1 3.6 1.1
Arizona 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.8 8.7 10.6 11.9 12.0 11.7 9.7 7.7 4.8 2.3 0.7
Iowa St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.1 8.3 9.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 10.3 8.4 6.0 3.5 1.4 0.3
Baylor 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.4 8.6 10.1 11.8 12.2 11.5 10.0 8.0 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
Texas Tech 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.2 6.2 8.1 10.3 11.9 11.8 12.1 10.4 8.2 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1
Cincinnati 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.6 8.6 9.9 10.9 11.1 10.7 9.6 7.7 5.8 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
BYU 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.1 5.8 7.8 10.0 10.8 11.8 11.3 10.0 8.4 6.4 4.3 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Kansas St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.7 6.6 8.7 10.4 11.1 11.5 10.7 9.4 7.6 5.6 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 5.5 7.6 9.7 11.3 11.8 11.5 10.8 8.8 6.7 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 8 - 12 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.4 7.8 10.5 11.7 12.0 11.9 10.2 8.6 6.3 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 8 - 12 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.0 7.4 9.6 11.1 11.8 11.7 10.4 9.0 6.9 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 8 - 12 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.2 7.8 9.8 11.5 12.5 12.0 10.4 8.9 6.6 4.8 3.1 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 7 - 13 0.5 1.9 4.0 6.8 9.3 11.5 12.1 12.1 11.0 9.6 7.3 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Colorado 7 - 13 0.5 1.9 3.9 6.7 9.4 11.3 12.5 12.4 11.1 9.1 7.6 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 6 - 14 0.9 2.8 6.1 8.8 11.1 12.9 12.6 11.4 9.6 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 33.1% 22.6 8.0 2.1 0.4 0.0
Kansas 27.8% 18.4 7.1 1.9 0.4 0.0
Arizona 18.9% 12.0 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
Iowa St. 14.4% 8.7 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
Baylor 8.4% 4.7 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Texas Tech 8.2% 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
Cincinnati 5.2% 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
BYU 3.4% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
TCU 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 97.6% 23.7% 73.9% 1   34.3 23.5 14.8 9.3 5.7 3.7 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 96.9%
Kansas 98.3% 20.2% 78.1% 1   38.7 25.7 14.1 8.0 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 97.8%
Arizona 91.5% 14.6% 76.9% 3   20.2 17.0 14.6 11.4 8.5 5.9 4.5 3.0 2.1 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.5 90.1%
Iowa St. 86.9% 11.6% 75.2% 4   12.5 13.0 12.4 11.3 9.5 7.8 6.5 4.7 3.2 2.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 13.1 85.1%
Baylor 83.4% 7.3% 76.1% 3   10.0 13.1 13.7 12.1 9.3 6.6 4.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 3.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 16.6 82.1%
Texas Tech 81.0% 7.4% 73.6% 4   6.0 7.9 10.2 10.4 9.9 8.6 8.0 6.7 5.2 4.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 19.0 79.5%
Cincinnati 68.7% 4.4% 64.3% 6   3.3 5.0 6.9 7.4 8.0 7.8 8.0 7.2 5.5 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 31.3 67.2%
BYU 62.5% 3.1% 59.4% 7   2.0 3.2 5.0 6.5 7.2 7.8 7.4 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 37.5 61.3%
Kansas St. 47.2% 1.9% 45.2% 9   1.2 2.1 3.5 4.0 5.2 5.6 5.9 5.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 52.8 46.1%
Utah 35.9% 1.3% 34.6% 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 64.1 35.0%
TCU 38.4% 1.1% 37.3% 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 61.6 37.7%
West Virginia 33.8% 1.0% 32.7% 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 4.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 66.2 33.1%
Central Florida 38.6% 0.8% 37.8% 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.4 3.7 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.8 1.6 0.0 61.4 38.1%
Arizona St. 26.6% 0.6% 26.0% 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.6 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 73.4 26.1%
Colorado 24.9% 0.5% 24.4% 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.3 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 75.1 24.5%
Oklahoma St. 19.1% 0.5% 18.6% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.3 3.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 80.9 18.7%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 97.6% 1.0% 97.2% 89.6% 65.5% 42.9% 26.2% 15.6% 8.9%
Kansas 98.3% 1.0% 97.9% 90.3% 64.5% 40.9% 23.9% 13.3% 7.3%
Arizona 91.5% 2.2% 90.7% 78.3% 51.8% 30.5% 17.0% 9.5% 5.1%
Iowa St. 86.9% 2.8% 85.7% 69.5% 43.0% 23.9% 13.0% 6.9% 3.4%
Baylor 83.4% 5.1% 81.1% 64.9% 38.2% 19.5% 9.4% 4.5% 2.1%
Texas Tech 81.0% 3.2% 79.5% 59.9% 33.2% 16.5% 8.1% 3.7% 1.7%
Cincinnati 68.7% 4.1% 66.7% 46.7% 23.0% 10.5% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9%
BYU 62.5% 5.0% 60.1% 39.6% 18.4% 8.1% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
Kansas St. 47.2% 4.8% 44.8% 28.4% 12.2% 5.3% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Utah 35.9% 3.7% 34.1% 19.4% 7.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
TCU 38.4% 5.1% 35.7% 20.7% 8.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
West Virginia 33.8% 5.2% 31.1% 18.0% 7.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Central Florida 38.6% 6.5% 34.9% 18.6% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Arizona St. 26.6% 5.3% 23.9% 13.2% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Colorado 24.9% 4.3% 22.6% 11.7% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 19.1% 3.7% 17.2% 8.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.3 0.0 0.7 5.2 18.2 31.2 27.7 13.5 3.0 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.1 23.7 32.3 23.5 9.1 1.7 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 12.1 25.7 29.8 19.6 7.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.9 0.2 2.1 10.3 24.7 31.4 21.8 7.8 1.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 95.3% 2.1 4.7 23.2 37.3 25.5 8.1 1.2 0.1
Final Four 77.0% 1.1 23.0 46.0 26.0 4.8 0.2
Final Game 52.2% 0.6 47.8 44.8 7.5
Champion 30.9% 0.3 69.1 30.9