Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#253
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#281
Pace79.1#16
Improvement-0.7#273

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#308
First Shot-3.5#276
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#253
Layup/Dunks-4.2#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#140
Freethrows-0.9#227
Improvement-1.2#335

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#165
First Shot+3.1#94
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#324
Layups/Dunks+4.1#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#38
Freethrows-2.2#292
Improvement+0.5#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 15.0
.500 or above 3.2% 3.7% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 4.2% 4.7% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 28.2% 40.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 71 - 13
Quad 32 - 63 - 19
Quad 46 - 39 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 307   Sacramento St. W 64-57 73%     1 - 0 -4.0 -10.9 +7.0
  Nov 13, 2024 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 15%     1 - 1 +1.2 +2.6 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 35%     1 - 2 -16.8 -17.3 +1.1
  Nov 20, 2024 348   Prairie View W 84-73 85%    
  Nov 23, 2024 259   @ Long Beach St. L 72-75 41%    
  Nov 27, 2024 80   Washington St. L 71-83 14%    
  Dec 04, 2024 62   San Diego St. L 64-74 17%    
  Dec 07, 2024 99   @ Santa Clara L 71-84 12%    
  Dec 11, 2024 34   @ BYU L 68-88 4%    
  Dec 14, 2024 298   San Diego W 79-73 69%    
  Dec 21, 2024 181   California Baptist L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 28, 2024 97   @ UNLV L 68-81 13%    
  Dec 31, 2024 63   New Mexico L 76-86 18%    
  Jan 04, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 71-89 6%    
  Jan 07, 2025 102   @ Colorado St. L 65-78 13%    
  Jan 11, 2025 39   Nevada L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 17, 2025 292   Air Force W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 20, 2025 63   @ New Mexico L 73-89 8%    
  Jan 25, 2025 102   Colorado St. L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 28, 2025 185   @ Wyoming L 71-77 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 43   @ Boise St. L 64-83 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 07, 2025 45   Utah St. L 74-86 16%    
  Feb 11, 2025 39   @ Nevada L 62-81 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 97   UNLV L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 18, 2025 62   @ San Diego St. L 61-77 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 292   @ Air Force L 68-69 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 43   Boise St. L 67-80 14%    
  Mar 04, 2025 185   Wyoming L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. L 70-73 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 5.2 2.5 0.6 0.1 17.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 6.4 8.6 5.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 24.6 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 8.6 8.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 25.1 10th
11th 1.7 5.3 6.9 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 19.7 11th
Total 1.7 5.6 10.5 14.5 16.3 15.3 12.6 9.3 6.1 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-11 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 9.3% 9.3
6-14 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-15 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-16 16.3% 16.3
3-17 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
2-18 10.5% 10.5
1-19 5.6% 5.6
0-20 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%