Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#257
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#241
Pace81.0#5
Improvement+0.2#169

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#340
First Shot-5.6#332
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#219
Layup/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#341
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement+0.6#132

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#140
First Shot+0.8#145
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#154
Layups/Dunks-2.4#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+3.2#16
Improvement-0.4#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.0% 40.9% 48.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 81 - 14
Quad 32 - 73 - 21
Quad 46 - 39 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 335   Sacramento St. W 64-57 78%     1 - 0 -6.4 -12.2 +5.9
  Nov 13, 2024 138   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 19%     1 - 1 -0.8 +2.6 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2024 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 33%     1 - 2 -16.6 -17.6 +1.7
  Nov 20, 2024 337   Prairie View W 94-83 80%     2 - 2 -3.2 -0.9 -3.6
  Nov 23, 2024 261   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 39%     3 - 2 +0.5 -5.2 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 77   Washington St. L 73-84 13%     3 - 3 -3.9 -5.9 +3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 176   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 34%     3 - 4 -5.9 -9.2 +4.2
  Dec 04, 2024 41   San Diego St. L 62-84 11%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -14.1 -11.7 -0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 72   @ Santa Clara L 66-81 8%     3 - 6 -4.4 -7.8 +4.6
  Dec 11, 2024 40   @ BYU L 67-95 4%     3 - 7 -13.5 -6.0 -5.3
  Dec 14, 2024 319   San Diego W 73-65 74%     4 - 7 -3.8 -4.0 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 176   California Baptist L 73-74 45%    
  Dec 28, 2024 108   @ UNLV L 66-78 13%    
  Dec 31, 2024 70   New Mexico L 77-87 16%    
  Jan 04, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 68-86 5%    
  Jan 07, 2025 104   @ Colorado St. L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 52   Nevada L 65-77 13%    
  Jan 17, 2025 271   Air Force W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 20, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 74-90 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 104   Colorado St. L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 28, 2025 161   @ Wyoming L 68-76 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 65-83 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 189   San Jose St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 07, 2025 54   Utah St. L 71-83 14%    
  Feb 11, 2025 52   @ Nevada L 62-80 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 108   UNLV L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 41   @ San Diego St. L 62-81 4%    
  Feb 22, 2025 271   @ Air Force L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 58   Boise St. L 68-80 15%    
  Mar 04, 2025 161   Wyoming L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 08, 2025 189   @ San Jose St. L 70-77 27%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 3.8 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.5 7.5 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 20.2 9th
10th 0.3 3.3 9.7 10.9 5.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 31.5 10th
11th 2.1 7.2 11.0 8.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 31.6 11th
Total 2.1 7.5 14.3 18.6 18.4 15.4 10.9 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.7% 0.7
9-11 1.7% 1.7
8-12 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
7-13 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.9
5-15 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-16 18.4% 18.4
3-17 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.6
2-18 14.3% 14.3
1-19 7.5% 7.5
0-20 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%