Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#250
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#286
Pace63.3#322
Improvement-3.7#342

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#310
First Shot-8.8#358
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#14
Layup/Dunks-4.7#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#304
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement-1.8#303

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#172
First Shot+0.5#154
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#237
Layups/Dunks+2.3#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#264
Freethrows-1.1#263
Improvement-1.9#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.8% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 21.2% 32.7% 13.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.0% 65.0% 37.6%
Conference Champion 6.8% 11.3% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 4.5% 15.3%
First Four2.4% 2.6% 2.3%
First Round5.4% 7.7% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 49 - 711 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 59   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 6%     0 - 1 +5.3 -15.1 +20.1
  Nov 07, 2024 71   @ USC L 69-75 8%     0 - 2 +4.8 +5.4 -0.9
  Nov 16, 2024 316   @ San Diego W 78-66 54%     1 - 2 +6.1 -1.1 +6.3
  Nov 18, 2024 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 44%     1 - 3 -4.4 -4.9 +0.4
  Nov 20, 2024 20   @ UCLA L 70-84 3%     1 - 4 +3.9 +17.6 -15.4
  Dec 04, 2024 236   @ South Dakota L 80-94 36%     1 - 5 -15.2 +4.7 -20.5
  Dec 07, 2024 284   Oral Roberts W 71-55 68%     2 - 5 +6.3 -4.9 +12.1
  Dec 18, 2024 145   Utah Valley L 56-70 40%     2 - 6 -16.5 -16.6 +0.4
  Jan 02, 2025 265   @ Northern Arizona L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 210   Weber St. W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 16, 2025 155   Montana St. L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 191   Montana L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 63-60 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 251   @ Portland St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 259   Idaho W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 03, 2025 180   Northern Colorado L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 191   @ Montana L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 251   Portland St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 66-57 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 259   @ Idaho L 66-69 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 03, 2025 265   Northern Arizona W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 5.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 6.1 2.8 0.2 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.8 3.4 0.4 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.4 4.2 0.5 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.5 7.3 9.9 12.3 13.3 13.2 11.4 9.5 6.7 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 99.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 93.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
14-4 76.9% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 48.3% 2.1    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 18.8% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 32.8% 32.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 37.9% 37.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.1% 28.2% 28.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.3% 26.7% 26.7% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.7
13-5 4.3% 19.3% 19.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.5
12-6 6.7% 14.1% 14.1% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 5.8
11-7 9.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 8.4
10-8 11.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.1 0.9 10.5
9-9 13.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 12.5
8-10 13.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 13.0
7-11 12.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.0
6-12 9.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.8
5-13 7.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.3
4-14 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-15 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.7 93.5 0.0%