Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#232
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#250
Pace62.4#342
Improvement-1.0#282

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#283
First Shot-7.9#354
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#21
Layup/Dunks-2.3#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#340
Freethrows+1.3#116
Improvement+2.9#3

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#154
First Shot+0.6#157
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#210
Layups/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#218
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement-3.9#364
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 9.8% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 34.8% 48.4% 25.4%
.500 or above in Conference 56.2% 64.3% 50.7%
Conference Champion 9.0% 11.3% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.1% 6.3% 11.1%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.1%
First Round6.9% 9.1% 5.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 410 - 612 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 72   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 9%     0 - 1 +4.0 -16.8 +20.4
  Nov 07, 2024 79   @ USC L 69-75 10%     0 - 2 +4.3 +2.9 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 299   @ San Diego W 78-66 53%     1 - 2 +7.7 -1.5 +8.3
  Nov 18, 2024 275   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 47%     1 - 3 -3.7 -4.3 +0.4
  Nov 20, 2024 28   @ UCLA L 70-84 5%     1 - 4 +1.8 +15.1 -14.9
  Dec 04, 2024 238   @ South Dakota L 69-72 41%    
  Dec 07, 2024 265   Oral Roberts W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 18, 2024 136   Utah Valley L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 02, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 148   @ Northern Colorado L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 226   Weber St. W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 157   Montana St. L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 208   Montana W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 23, 2025 306   @ Sacramento St. W 61-60 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 221   @ Portland St. L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 246   Eastern Washington W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 285   Idaho W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 03, 2025 148   Northern Colorado L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   @ Weber St. L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 208   @ Montana L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   @ Montana St. L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 221   Portland St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 306   Sacramento St. W 64-57 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 285   @ Idaho L 66-67 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 246   @ Eastern Washington L 71-73 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 68-63 68%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 1st
2nd 0.3 1.9 3.9 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.8 5.1 2.9 0.6 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 5.8 3.0 0.3 12.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.9 3.3 0.5 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 2.8 0.4 9.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.7 1.8 0.4 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.2 5.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.0 8.0 10.7 11.9 12.5 12.0 10.5 8.4 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 95.8% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 84.9% 1.6    1.4 0.2
14-4 69.3% 2.5    1.7 0.8 0.0 0.0
13-5 40.8% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
12-6 13.9% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.3% 51.0% 51.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
16-2 0.8% 40.2% 40.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.8% 25.8% 25.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4
14-4 3.6% 27.3% 27.3% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.6
13-5 6.2% 17.5% 17.5% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 5.1
12-6 8.4% 14.9% 14.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 7.2
11-7 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 9.4
10-8 12.0% 7.9% 7.9% 15.7 0.3 0.7 11.0
9-9 12.5% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.8
8-10 11.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.5
7-11 10.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 10.4
6-12 8.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.9
5-13 6.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-14 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.5 3.1 92.2 0.0%