Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#81
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#46
Pace62.6#338
Improvement+2.1#22

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#128
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#231
Layup/Dunks+6.2#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#66
Freethrows-2.7#313
Improvement-0.1#190

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#38
First Shot+5.6#42
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#189
Layups/Dunks-1.5#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#46
Freethrows+4.2#14
Improvement+2.2#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 32.6% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 4.2% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 12.0
.500 or above 97.8% 98.6% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 93.6% 86.8%
Conference Champion 39.7% 41.3% 29.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
First Round30.5% 31.8% 21.9%
Second Round10.4% 11.3% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Neutral) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 38 - 312 - 7
Quad 49 - 121 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 270   Valparaiso W 83-63 88%     1 - 0 +14.4 +10.2 +4.9
  Nov 09, 2024 135   @ Seattle W 66-64 59%     2 - 0 +6.8 +0.1 +6.9
  Nov 16, 2024 66   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 46%     2 - 1 +5.3 -0.4 +5.8
  Nov 17, 2024 111   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 52%     3 - 1 +27.8 +2.3 +27.1
  Nov 22, 2024 247   Louisiana W 73-61 87%    
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 77-46 99.8%   
  Dec 14, 2024 289   N.C. A&T W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 21, 2024 166   Texas Arlington W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 02, 2025 121   Western Kentucky W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 161   Middle Tennessee W 71-61 83%    
  Jan 09, 2025 117   @ Sam Houston St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 172   UTEP W 73-62 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 165   New Mexico St. W 70-59 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 276   @ Florida International W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 30, 2025 158   @ Kennesaw St. W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 164   @ Jacksonville St. W 67-63 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 117   Sam Houston St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 165   @ New Mexico St. W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 172   @ UTEP W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 276   Florida International W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 27, 2025 164   Jacksonville St. W 70-60 81%    
  Mar 02, 2025 158   Kennesaw St. W 80-70 80%    
  Mar 06, 2025 161   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-64 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 121   @ Western Kentucky W 71-70 55%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.8 8.6 10.2 8.6 4.6 1.6 39.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 5.4 7.6 4.6 1.9 0.3 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.1 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.3 0.7 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.8 7.9 11.1 12.5 14.6 13.5 12.1 8.9 4.6 1.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.1
16-2 96.4% 8.6    7.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 84.5% 10.2    8.0 2.0 0.2
14-4 63.8% 8.6    5.2 3.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 32.8% 4.8    1.8 2.2 0.7 0.1
12-6 9.6% 1.2    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 29.1 8.6 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 91.2% 72.2% 19.0% 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 68.4%
17-1 4.6% 75.2% 52.9% 22.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.1 47.3%
16-2 8.9% 60.5% 51.2% 9.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.5 1.1 0.0 3.5 19.1%
15-3 12.1% 44.4% 41.1% 3.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 2.2 0.1 6.7 5.7%
14-4 13.5% 34.6% 34.2% 0.4% 11.7 0.1 1.4 3.0 0.2 0.0 8.9 0.5%
13-5 14.6% 26.0% 26.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.8
12-6 12.5% 24.2% 24.2% 12.3 0.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 9.5
11-7 11.1% 18.0% 18.0% 12.6 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.1
10-8 7.9% 14.5% 14.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 6.8
9-9 5.8% 8.9% 8.9% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.3
8-10 3.6% 7.4% 7.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
7-11 2.1% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
6-12 1.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.2% 28.6% 2.6% 11.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.8 8.0 12.5 3.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 68.8 3.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 4.1 7.3 10.3 17.8 29.9 19.6 4.5 6.8 1.3 1.3 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 52.9% 5.9 27.5 17.6 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 79.4% 6.5 11.8 26.5 7.4 13.2 7.4 13.2