Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#73
Expected Predictive Rating+13.7#39
Pace62.3#340
Improvement-0.5#219

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#117
First Shot+4.6#65
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#308
Layup/Dunks+4.0#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#14
Freethrows-3.1#339
Improvement+0.1#162

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#47
First Shot+5.4#35
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#198
Layups/Dunks+0.0#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#4
Freethrows+2.7#27
Improvement-0.7#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.5% 39.4% 28.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 3.8% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.2 11.1 11.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 98.0% 91.1%
Conference Champion 51.7% 59.7% 30.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 0.6%
First Round35.7% 38.4% 28.5%
Second Round10.0% 11.2% 6.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.9% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 34 - 3
Quad 310 - 315 - 6
Quad 49 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   Valparaiso W 83-63 85%     1 - 0 +16.5 +10.1 +7.1
  Nov 09, 2024 143   @ Seattle W 66-64 64%     2 - 0 +5.8 -0.5 +6.5
  Nov 16, 2024 88   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 55%     2 - 1 +3.3 -1.6 +5.1
  Nov 17, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 57%     3 - 1 +26.9 +3.5 +24.9
  Nov 22, 2024 286   Louisiana W 89-69 90%     4 - 1 +13.3 +19.6 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 84   Kansas St. W 67-65 53%     5 - 1 +8.8 +4.0 +5.0
  Nov 25, 2024 91   McNeese St. W 62-58 56%     6 - 1 +10.1 +2.5 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99%     7 - 1 +11.5 +12.5 +1.6
  Dec 14, 2024 324   N.C. A&T W 83-74 96%     8 - 1 -3.2 +2.1 -5.4
  Dec 21, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 79-56 85%     9 - 1 +19.7 +5.4 +15.1
  Jan 02, 2025 108   Western Kentucky W 74-68 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 140   @ Sam Houston St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 103   @ Louisiana Tech W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 139   UTEP W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 71-59 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 262   @ Florida International W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 30, 2025 194   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 152   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 103   Louisiana Tech W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 140   Sam Houston St. W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. W 68-62 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 139   @ UTEP W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 262   Florida International W 76-60 92%    
  Feb 27, 2025 152   Jacksonville St. W 72-62 83%    
  Mar 02, 2025 194   Kennesaw St. W 79-67 87%    
  Mar 06, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee W 69-66 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 108   @ Western Kentucky W 71-70 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.3 7.3 12.5 13.2 9.6 5.1 1.4 51.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.4 7.3 3.9 1.0 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.7 10.0 13.0 15.7 16.6 14.2 9.7 5.1 1.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 5.1    5.1 0.0
16-2 99.0% 9.6    9.3 0.4 0.0
15-3 92.7% 13.2    11.3 1.8 0.0
14-4 75.8% 12.5    8.5 3.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 46.4% 7.3    3.1 3.2 0.9 0.1
12-6 17.8% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 51.7% 51.7 39.2 10.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 85.1% 64.0% 21.0% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 58.5%
17-1 5.1% 70.0% 56.6% 13.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 0.1 1.5 30.9%
16-2 9.7% 55.6% 50.0% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 4.3 11.2%
15-3 14.2% 47.0% 44.9% 2.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8 2.7 0.0 7.5 3.8%
14-4 16.6% 39.4% 38.8% 0.6% 11.6 0.1 2.5 3.8 0.1 10.0 0.9%
13-5 15.7% 32.9% 32.7% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 1.2 3.8 0.2 10.5 0.3%
12-6 13.0% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.4 0.0%
11-7 10.0% 22.5% 22.5% 12.1 0.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.7
10-8 6.7% 18.3% 18.3% 12.2 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.4
9-9 3.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.1
8-10 2.2% 10.4% 10.4% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-11 1.0% 6.9% 6.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.5% 4.8% 4.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 36.5% 34.5% 2.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.9 13.1 17.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 63.5 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 5.5 1.1 1.4 8.2 19.7 24.5 21.1 12.0 3.2 5.7 1.8 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 64.8% 9.1 1.9 4.6 0.9 3.7 7.4 12.0 17.6 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 57.3% 9.6 2.2 4.5 7.9 6.7 15.7 20.2