San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#62
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#76
Pace65.7#281
Improvement+1.6#42

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#143
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#134
Layup/Dunks-1.3#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#98
Freethrows-1.3#252
Improvement+1.4#30

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#13
First Shot+10.1#5
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#317
Layups/Dunks+13.6#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#139
Freethrows-1.3#254
Improvement+0.2#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 4.5% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.7% 9.6% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 41.0% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.9% 28.1% 11.0%
Average Seed 9.1 8.5 9.5
.500 or above 85.8% 95.0% 82.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 92.9% 84.3%
Conference Champion 16.0% 22.1% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four4.6% 6.7% 3.7%
First Round24.9% 37.6% 19.6%
Second Round12.5% 20.2% 9.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 7.4% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.7% 3.0% 1.2%
Final Four0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Creighton (Neutral) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 35 - 9
Quad 35 - 211 - 10
Quad 48 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 158   UC San Diego W 63-58 86%     1 - 0 +2.1 -8.9 +11.3
  Nov 18, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 67-80 17%     1 - 1 +5.9 +0.7 +5.1
  Nov 26, 2024 17   Creighton L 66-72 30%    
  Nov 27, 2024 40   Oregon L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 04, 2024 253   @ Fresno St. W 74-64 83%    
  Dec 07, 2024 298   San Diego W 78-59 96%    
  Dec 11, 2024 181   California Baptist W 72-59 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 104   California W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 28, 2024 45   Utah St. W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 43   @ Boise St. L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 07, 2025 292   Air Force W 72-53 95%    
  Jan 11, 2025 63   @ New Mexico L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 14, 2025 102   Colorado St. W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 97   UNLV W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 22, 2025 292   @ Air Force W 69-56 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 39   @ Nevada L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 28, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 73-57 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 185   Wyoming W 73-60 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 102   @ Colorado St. W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 11, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 70-60 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 43   Boise St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 18, 2025 253   Fresno St. W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 22, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 63   New Mexico W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 185   @ Wyoming W 70-63 72%    
  Mar 04, 2025 97   @ UNLV W 68-67 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 39   Nevada W 66-65 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.2 4.6 3.3 1.3 0.4 16.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.1 4.2 1.3 0.2 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 6.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.6 6.0 2.5 0.3 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.7 5.0 1.9 0.2 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.9 3.4 1.0 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.4 5.6 7.7 10.2 11.9 13.0 12.6 11.5 8.9 6.0 3.5 1.3 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 95.4% 3.3    2.9 0.4 0.0
17-3 77.4% 4.6    3.1 1.4 0.1
16-4 47.6% 4.2    1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0
15-5 15.5% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 9.9 4.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 52.1% 47.9% 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 99.1% 50.0% 49.1% 4.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
18-2 3.5% 92.5% 38.5% 53.9% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 87.8%
17-3 6.0% 81.3% 32.5% 48.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.1 72.3%
16-4 8.9% 65.5% 27.2% 38.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 52.7%
15-5 11.5% 43.0% 20.4% 22.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.2 0.3 6.6 28.5%
14-6 12.6% 25.2% 14.5% 10.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.4 12.6%
13-7 13.0% 13.5% 9.1% 4.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 11.2 4.8%
12-8 11.9% 7.4% 6.2% 1.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 11.0 1.3%
11-9 10.2% 4.5% 4.4% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.7 0.1%
10-10 7.7% 2.6% 2.6% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.5 0.1%
9-11 5.6% 1.6% 1.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
8-12 3.4% 1.4% 1.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
7-13 2.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 27.2% 13.4% 13.7% 9.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 3.2 4.8 8.1 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.8 15.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 59.1 27.3 9.1 4.5