Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#289
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#257
Pace72.1#94
Improvement+0.5#146

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#317
First Shot-0.8#194
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#355
Layup/Dunks-3.3#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
Freethrows-3.6#348
Improvement+1.6#62

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#227
First Shot+0.1#169
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#316
Layups/Dunks-0.5#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#26
Freethrows-4.2#355
Improvement-1.1#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 16.0% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 44.8% 55.9% 30.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 82.6% 60.5%
Conference Champion 16.8% 23.3% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.6% 5.5%
First Four7.9% 9.3% 5.9%
First Round8.6% 11.2% 5.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 414 - 914 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 79   @ Bradley L 60-88 7%     0 - 1 -17.9 -9.9 -7.7
  Nov 10, 2024 50   @ Vanderbilt L 76-85 4%     0 - 2 +4.3 +4.6 +0.1
  Nov 17, 2024 183   Chattanooga L 82-87 39%     0 - 3 -9.1 -5.1 -3.3
  Nov 21, 2024 339   @ Central Arkansas W 77-73 OT 56%     1 - 3 -4.3 -7.2 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 166   UNC Asheville L 64-72 27%     1 - 4 -8.5 -9.3 +0.6
  Nov 30, 2024 240   UMKC W 80-59 52%     2 - 4 +13.7 -3.0 +14.7
  Dec 05, 2024 107   @ Lipscomb L 60-78 10%     2 - 5 -10.8 -7.8 -3.2
  Dec 08, 2024 124   @ Murray St. L 53-73 13%     2 - 6 -14.6 -9.7 -7.7
  Dec 19, 2024 327   Eastern Illinois W 79-72 71%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -5.4 +7.2 -12.1
  Dec 21, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 316   @ Tennessee St. L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 282   Southern Indiana W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 281   Morehead St. W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 14, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 351   @ Lindenwood W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 324   Tennessee Martin W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 316   Tennessee St. W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 06, 2025 281   @ Morehead St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 282   @ Southern Indiana L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 11, 2025 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 20, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 67-71 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 327   @ Eastern Illinois L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.8 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 16.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.5 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.4 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.2 0.8 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.3 1.1 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.1 1.2 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 1.4 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.7 11.9 13.1 12.6 11.7 9.2 7.2 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.8% 0.9    0.9 0.0
17-3 96.9% 2.0    1.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 86.8% 3.6    2.9 0.6 0.0
15-5 67.4% 4.8    3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 37.5% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.9% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 10.7 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 34.5% 34.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 52.4% 52.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.9% 49.7% 49.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5
17-3 2.1% 39.5% 39.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.3
16-4 4.1% 35.0% 35.0% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.7
15-5 7.2% 29.8% 29.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0
14-6 9.2% 25.8% 25.8% 16.0 0.1 2.3 6.9
13-7 11.7% 18.4% 18.4% 16.0 0.1 2.1 9.5
12-8 12.6% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4 11.2
11-9 13.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 12.2
10-10 11.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.5 11.4
9-11 9.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.5
8-12 7.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.2
7-13 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-14 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 10.7 87.3 0.0%