Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#320
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#314
Pace75.2#53
Improvement+0.7#107

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#314
First Shot-0.4#197
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#355
Layup/Dunks-4.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#3
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#70
Freethrows-7.0#363
Improvement+0.8#73

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#302
First Shot-5.0#320
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#113
Layups/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#151
Freethrows-8.4#361
Improvement-0.1#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 7.0% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 19.5% 28.5% 10.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.9% 55.3% 40.7%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.8% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 8.1% 14.1%
First Four3.9% 4.8% 3.0%
First Round3.4% 4.6% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 410 - 1111 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 95   @ Bradley L 60-88 6%     0 - 1 -19.6 -9.3 -9.9
  Nov 10, 2024 82   @ Vanderbilt L 76-85 5%     0 - 2 +1.0 +2.8 -1.4
  Nov 17, 2024 169   Chattanooga L 82-87 30%     0 - 3 -8.5 -3.5 -4.4
  Nov 21, 2024 340   @ Central Arkansas L 75-76 49%    
  Nov 22, 2024 176   UNC Asheville L 72-80 22%    
  Nov 30, 2024 217   @ UMKC L 67-76 20%    
  Dec 05, 2024 152   @ Lipscomb L 71-83 13%    
  Dec 08, 2024 111   @ Murray St. L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 19, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 21, 2024 272   SIU Edwardsville L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 02, 2025 296   @ Tennessee St. L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 301   @ Tennessee Martin L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 09, 2025 322   Southern Indiana W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 268   Morehead St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 205   Arkansas Little Rock L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 16, 2025 334   @ Tennessee Tech L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 355   @ Lindenwood W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 326   @ Western Illinois L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 301   Tennessee Martin W 80-78 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 296   Tennessee St. W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 06, 2025 268   @ Morehead St. L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 322   @ Southern Indiana L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 11, 2025 205   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 70-80 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 334   Tennessee Tech W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 20, 2025 326   Western Illinois W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 355   Lindenwood W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 27, 2025 272   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-75 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 315   @ Eastern Illinois L 71-74 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.1 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.1 3.7 1.0 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.1 1.1 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.6 1.5 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 2.8 1.3 0.1 9.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.9 7.6 9.5 10.4 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.5 6.7 5.0 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 92.1% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 76.4% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 46.5% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.5% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 43.9% 43.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 42.9% 42.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.0% 37.1% 37.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6
16-4 1.8% 32.7% 32.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2
15-5 3.2% 26.0% 26.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4
14-6 5.0% 20.1% 20.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0 4.0
13-7 6.7% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.9
12-8 8.5% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.7 7.9
11-9 10.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.5 9.7
10-10 11.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 10.8
9-11 11.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.3
8-12 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.3
7-13 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
6-14 7.6% 7.6
5-15 5.9% 5.9
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.7 94.7 0.0%