The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#355
Expected Predictive Rating-17.7#359
Pace64.3#304
Improvement-5.7#361

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#349
First Shot-8.7#356
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#100
Layup/Dunks-2.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
Freethrows-5.2#363
Improvement-0.8#251

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#341
First Shot-5.6#343
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#198
Layups/Dunks-3.8#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#108
Freethrows-1.6#296
Improvement-4.9#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.4 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 8.9% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 52.7% 26.9% 53.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 3.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 44 - 95 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 152   @ Boston College L 60-69 7%     0 - 1 -5.7 -9.3 +3.3
  Nov 11, 2024 344   Stetson W 74-52 58%     1 - 1 +7.2 -4.7 +12.8
  Nov 17, 2024 321   N.C. A&T L 73-82 47%     1 - 2 -21.0 -6.4 -14.6
  Nov 20, 2024 121   College of Charleston L 61-76 13%     1 - 3 -15.5 -9.4 -6.7
  Dec 12, 2024 295   Campbell L 58-86 40%     1 - 4 -38.2 -13.2 -27.5
  Dec 16, 2024 339   @ Central Arkansas L 71-73 33%     1 - 5 -10.3 -5.9 -4.4
  Dec 18, 2024 50   @ Vanderbilt L 53-105 2%     1 - 6 -38.7 -11.4 -30.9
  Jan 01, 2025 112   @ Samford L 67-86 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 183   Chattanooga L 66-75 20%    
  Jan 08, 2025 128   Furman L 60-72 13%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ East Tennessee St. L 59-77 5%    
  Jan 15, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-73 7%    
  Jan 18, 2025 347   VMI W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 22, 2025 155   @ Wofford L 60-76 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 311   Western Carolina L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 239   @ Mercer L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 112   Samford L 70-83 12%    
  Feb 05, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro L 60-70 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 347   @ VMI L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 155   Wofford L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 19, 2025 239   Mercer L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 183   @ Chattanooga L 63-78 10%    
  Feb 26, 2025 128   @ Furman L 57-75 6%    
  Mar 01, 2025 132   East Tennessee St. L 62-74 15%    
Projected Record 4 - 21 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 4.4 6.4 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.8 8th
9th 0.6 5.2 11.2 9.9 4.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 32.7 9th
10th 4.6 11.6 13.1 7.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 39.3 10th
Total 4.6 12.2 18.4 19.8 16.6 12.5 7.7 4.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-13 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-14 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
3-15 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.8
2-16 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.4
1-17 12.2% 12.2
0-18 4.6% 4.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.1%