The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#309
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#311
Pace64.3#320
Improvement-0.6#261

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#323
First Shot-5.1#308
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#199
Layup/Dunks-0.4#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#266
Freethrows-2.1#285
Improvement+0.9#65

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#266
First Shot-1.8#240
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#249
Layups/Dunks-4.1#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.8#6
Freethrows-5.6#357
Improvement-1.5#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 10.3% 21.7% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 17.2% 25.6% 15.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 25.0% 17.4% 27.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round1.1% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 72 - 10
Quad 47 - 89 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 133   @ Boston College L 60-69 12%     0 - 1 -4.2 -8.5 +4.0
  Nov 11, 2024 326   Stetson W 74-52 65%     1 - 1 +9.8 -2.9 +13.6
  Nov 17, 2024 272   N.C. A&T L 73-82 52%     1 - 2 -17.7 -4.8 -12.9
  Nov 20, 2024 116   College of Charleston L 69-77 21%    
  Dec 12, 2024 257   Campbell L 66-67 49%    
  Dec 16, 2024 340   @ Central Arkansas W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 18, 2024 82   @ Vanderbilt L 63-81 5%    
  Jan 01, 2025 127   @ Samford L 69-83 11%    
  Jan 04, 2025 168   Chattanooga L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 08, 2025 135   Furman L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 15, 2025 170   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-71 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 347   VMI W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 204   @ Wofford L 62-71 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 258   Western Carolina L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 29, 2025 254   @ Mercer L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 127   Samford L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 05, 2025 170   UNC Greensboro L 63-68 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 347   @ VMI W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 12, 2025 204   Wofford L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 254   Mercer L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 168   @ Chattanooga L 63-74 18%    
  Feb 26, 2025 135   @ Furman L 63-76 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.2 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.3 2.2 0.3 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.9 6.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 19.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 5.4 8.3 6.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 25.1 9th
10th 0.9 3.2 5.1 4.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 16.8 10th
Total 0.9 3.3 7.1 10.2 13.1 13.9 13.4 11.6 9.2 6.8 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 84.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 63.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 9.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 28.1% 28.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 13.4% 13.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.8% 17.7% 17.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.6% 10.1% 10.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
11-7 2.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6
10-8 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.4
9-9 6.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.6
8-10 9.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
7-11 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.5
6-12 13.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
4-14 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.0
3-15 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.2
2-16 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
1-17 3.3% 3.3
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%