Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#155
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#144
Pace73.3#74
Improvement-0.7#266

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#156
First Shot+4.0#73
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#334
Layup/Dunks+0.4#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#221
Freethrows+3.3#42
Improvement-0.8#299

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#191
First Shot+0.3#164
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#243
Layups/Dunks-5.0#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#69
Freethrows-0.1#198
Improvement+0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 28.0% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 89.8% 93.5% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 93.8% 88.2%
Conference Champion 33.8% 36.9% 25.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 2.4%
First Round25.0% 27.4% 18.7%
Second Round2.1% 2.5% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 417 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 180   St. Peter's W 81-74 66%     1 - 0 +3.0 +8.7 -5.6
  Nov 15, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 2%     1 - 1 -33.9 -18.0 -6.8
  Nov 17, 2024 83   @ Washington L 69-74 18%     1 - 2 +5.0 +2.5 +2.5
  Nov 23, 2024 225   Quinnipiac W 80-74 72%    
  Nov 25, 2024 223   Merrimack W 73-67 72%    
  Nov 27, 2024 100   @ Saint Louis L 75-83 24%    
  Dec 01, 2024 254   @ Central Connecticut St. W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 07, 2024 128   @ Massachusetts L 74-79 32%    
  Dec 11, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn W 85-70 91%    
  Dec 14, 2024 339   Dartmouth W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 18, 2024 343   Stonehill W 80-64 92%    
  Dec 21, 2024 286   Boston University W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 04, 2025 246   @ Albany W 81-79 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 151   Vermont W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 360   NJIT W 80-62 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 160   @ Bryant L 80-83 41%    
  Jan 23, 2025 236   Maine W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 341   New Hampshire W 82-67 91%    
  Jan 30, 2025 360   @ NJIT W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 311   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-80 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 330   @ Binghamton W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 246   Albany W 84-76 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 341   @ New Hampshire W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 20, 2025 311   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 89-77 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 151   @ Vermont L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 27, 2025 160   Bryant W 83-80 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 330   Binghamton W 80-67 87%    
  Mar 04, 2025 236   @ Maine W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.4 9.8 10.0 5.6 1.6 33.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.3 9.0 4.3 0.6 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.8 5.9 1.6 0.1 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 1.8 0.2 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.4 13.0 15.2 16.0 14.3 10.7 5.6 1.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 5.6    5.4 0.2
14-2 93.9% 10.0    8.4 1.6 0.0
13-3 69.0% 9.8    5.7 3.8 0.3
12-4 33.6% 5.4    1.8 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 8.5% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 33.8% 33.8 23.1 8.6 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 63.6% 63.4% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4%
15-1 5.6% 54.9% 54.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5
14-2 10.7% 46.2% 46.2% 13.5 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 5.8
13-3 14.3% 36.2% 36.2% 14.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.4 0.2 9.1
12-4 16.0% 28.8% 28.8% 14.5 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.9 0.5 11.4
11-5 15.2% 20.3% 20.3% 15.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 12.1
10-6 13.0% 14.7% 14.7% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 11.1
9-7 9.4% 11.2% 11.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 8.4
8-8 6.6% 8.5% 8.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.0
7-9 4.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.7
6-10 2.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-11 1.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.3 7.3 6.7 4.0 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.2 5.7 3.8 7.5 15.1 11.3 30.2 26.4