UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#178
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#181
Pace69.1#179
Improvement+3.0#19

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#144
First Shot-5.3#313
After Offensive Rebound+6.6#2
Layup/Dunks-3.7#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
Freethrows-4.5#350
Improvement+2.2#25

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#244
First Shot-2.5#255
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#161
Layups/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#85
Freethrows-3.8#337
Improvement+0.8#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 21.4% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 66.9% 84.0% 63.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.2% 83.4% 73.5%
Conference Champion 20.9% 28.8% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.1% 2.9%
First Four1.1% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round15.2% 21.2% 14.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 17.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 410 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 54-110 3%     0 - 1 -35.3 -15.0 -17.2
  Nov 09, 2024 154   @ Ohio L 76-82 34%     0 - 2 -2.7 -0.2 -2.2
  Nov 18, 2024 192   @ North Florida W 89-75 40%     1 - 2 +15.6 +16.7 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2024 283   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 71%     2 - 2 +1.5 -0.5 +2.2
  Nov 24, 2024 336   @ Central Arkansas L 83-92 2OT 74%     2 - 3 -16.5 -5.4 -9.8
  Dec 01, 2024 316   @ Tennessee St. W 92-74 68%     3 - 3 +12.2 +12.9 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 85   @ George Mason L 65-75 17%    
  Dec 14, 2024 275   Western Carolina W 79-71 78%    
  Dec 17, 2024 192   North Florida W 82-78 63%    
  Dec 21, 2024 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 152   High Point W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 08, 2025 181   @ Longwood L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 233   @ Presbyterian L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 15, 2025 342   South Carolina Upstate W 86-72 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 187   Winthrop W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 22, 2025 207   @ Gardner-Webb L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 311   @ Charleston Southern W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 191   Radford W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 207   Gardner-Webb W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 152   @ High Point L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 12, 2025 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 83-75 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 311   Charleston Southern W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 19, 2025 191   @ Radford L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 181   Longwood W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 233   Presbyterian W 76-70 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 187   @ Winthrop L 75-78 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.3 5.5 3.2 1.2 0.3 20.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.6 6.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.5 2.2 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.9 2.1 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.1 2.1 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.1 1.6 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.3 6.8 10.2 12.6 14.3 14.1 12.9 10.3 6.2 3.2 1.2 0.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
14-2 98.5% 3.2    2.9 0.2
13-3 88.5% 5.5    4.3 1.1 0.0
12-4 61.2% 6.3    3.2 2.6 0.4 0.0
11-5 28.7% 3.7    0.9 1.7 1.0 0.1
10-6 4.8% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 12.9 5.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 59.3% 59.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.2% 46.6% 46.6% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7
14-2 3.2% 36.6% 36.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0
13-3 6.2% 35.8% 35.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.0
12-4 10.3% 27.3% 27.3% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.0 7.5
11-5 12.9% 20.6% 20.6% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 10.3
10-6 14.1% 15.5% 15.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 11.9
9-7 14.3% 12.0% 12.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 12.6
8-8 12.6% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 11.5
7-9 10.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.7
6-10 6.8% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.5
5-11 4.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1
4-12 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 2.2
3-13 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-14 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.8 4.6 2.5 84.3 0.0%