St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +17.7 20
Expected Predictive Rating +17.1 25
Pace 73.6 58
Improvement -0.3 196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #29 C+ A B+ A B+
Defense A- #17 B+ B A B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 13 58% 174 +4.9 31
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 301 38% 172 -2.3 292
Three Pointers 38% 235 35% 145 -0.9 214
1st FG Attempt 1.05 119 +1.7 119
Second Chance 38.6% 16 1.19 24 0.46 7
Turnovers 13.9% 30
Freethrows 0.39 5 74% 134 0.29 6
Total Offense +9.0 29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 55 47% 9 +1.8 116
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 80 37% 145 -1.0 267
Three Pointers 33% 357 32% 93 +5.1 12
1st FG Attempt 0.90 33 +5.9 33
Second Chance 28.8% 107 0.92 47 0.27 65
Turnovers 21.4% 14
Freethrows 0.28 110 71% 112 0.20 102
Total Defense +8.7 17

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.4 26 +0.0 163
Shot Type Accuracy +0.3 160 -5.8 20
Possession Length 15.1 16 18.5 332
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 15 0.13 55
Improvement -1.0 #244 +0.6 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 2 Seed 3% 4% 0%
Top 4 Seed 27% 33% 13%
Top 6 Seed 75% 82% 57%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 99%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99% 100% 99%
Average Seed 5.4 5.1 6.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 35% 42% 17%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 99%
Second Round80% 83% 72%
Sweet Sixteen38% 41% 29%
Elite Eight15% 16% 11%
Final Four6% 7% 4%
Championship Game2% 2% 1%
National Champion1% 1% 0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 6
Quad 28 - 114 - 7
Quad 38 - 022 - 8
Quad 43 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 195 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 97% +22  99% 1 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +14 A+ B+ C+ A- +9 B A- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 17 Alabama L 96 - 103 60% -4  13% 1 - 1 B +8 B+ +8 B+ A C C+ +2 B+ C F+
 Sat, Nov 15 145 William & Mary W 93 - 60 96% +15  96% 2 - 1 A+ +31 B- +4 C- B A+ A+ +23 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 324 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +17  76% 3 - 1 A+ +35 B+ +9 B+ C+ C A+ +22 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 8 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 38% -2  29% 3 - 2 A +20 A+ +20 C A+ A+ C +0 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 42 Baylor W 96 - 81 69% +12  99% 4 - 2 A+ +28 A+ +22 A+ A+ B+ B +5 A+ B C+
 Wed, Nov 26 28 Auburn L 74 - 85 60% -0  45% 4 - 3 C+ +4 B +6 D- A+ D+ C- -3 D F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 65 Mississippi W 63 - 58 87% +7  89% 5 - 3 B +10 F -11 F A+ F A+ +21 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 247 Iona W 91 - 64 98% +8  78% 6 - 3 A +19 B +6 A B F A +12 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 98 DePaul W 79 - 66 92% +10  95% 7 - 3 1 - 0 A- +15 B +7 B+ C A A- +9 A+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 20 24 Kentucky L 66 - 78 56% -1  53% 7 - 4 C+ +4 C- -1 F A+ C B +5 A- D A+
 Tue, Dec 23 153 Harvard W 85 - 59 96% +10  65% 8 - 4 A+ +23 A- +11 B+ A+ D+ A+ +13 B A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 76 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 75% +6  67% 9 - 4 2 - 0 A +23 A+ +25 A+ A+ B- C- -3 D- B- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 60 Providence L 71 - 77 86% +5  90% 9 - 5 2 - 1 C +0 F -11 F A D+ A +12 A+ F C+
 Tue, Jan 6 75 @Butler W 84 - 70 75% +4  53% 10 - 5 3 - 1 A+ +25 A- +11 B C+ A+ A+ +14 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 61 @Creighton W 90 - 73 72% +13  83% 11 - 5 4 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +22 A+ C- A+ B+ +7 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 85 Marquette W 92 - 68 90% +11  99% 12 - 5 5 - 1 A+ +28 A +13 B- A+ A A +13 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 32 @Villanova W 86 - 79 51% +5  81% 13 - 5 6 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +17 B+ A- A+ B+ +7 C+ C- A
 Tue, Jan 20 53 Seton Hall W 65 - 60 84% -4  14% 14 - 5 7 - 1 B+ +12 B- +4 F A+ A A- +9 B B- A
 Sat, Jan 24 83 @Xavier W 88 - 83 78% -3  34% 15 - 5 8 - 1 A- +15 A- +10 C A+ A B +4 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 75 Butler W 92 - 70 89% +13  97% 16 - 5 9 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ C+ +1 B+ A F
 Tue, Feb 3 98 @DePaul W 68 - 56 81% +4  66% 17 - 5 10 - 1 A +20 C+ +3 F A+ A+ A+ +18 A+ B A
 Fri, Feb 6 7 Connecticut W 81 - 72 49% +3  72% 18 - 5 11 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +16 A A+ A A +11 D+ A A
 Mon, Feb 9 83 Xavier W 87 - 82 OT 90% +0  52% 19 - 5 12 - 1 B +9 C +0 C F+ A+ B+ +8 A C- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 60 @Providence W 90 - 84 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 85 @Marquette W 82 - 74 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 61 Creighton W 84 - 72 87%
 Wed, Feb 25 7 @Connecticut L 71 - 77 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 32 Villanova W 76 - 70 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 76 Georgetown W 83 - 70 89%
 Fri, Mar 6 53 @Seton Hall W 73 - 69 66%
Totals 24 - 7 17 - 3 +18 A- +9 C+ A B+ A- +9 B+ B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- C C C+ C 47% 15% 38% B+ C+ A- A- A B+ A C+ A A- A C+ B- A- 43% 24% 33% C B+ C+ B B A C+ C+ B-
1.21 58% 38% 35% 0 +1 1.05 39% 1.2 .46 14% .39 74% .29 0.96 47% 37% 32% -6 0 0.90 29% 0.9 .27 21% .28 71% .28
Nov
3		 Quinnipiac A+ B+ F A+ A 64% 7% 29% A+ A+ A C B+ C+ A+ F+ A+ A- A- D- B- B 42% 30% 28% B- B C- A+ A- A+ D+ C+ C-
1.29 65% 25% 47% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.0 .43 17% .49 65% .32 0.89 46% 41% 31% -5 -1 0.89 33% 0.7 .23 26% .31 68% .21
Nov
8		 Alabama B+ B- A F B 48% 26% 26% B B+ C- A+ A C A+ B A+ C+ C- D B+ B+ 39% 17% 43% B B+ B F+ C F+ B A+ A
1.14 57% 47% 27% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.5 .38 14% .55 70% .39 1.22 63% 50% 30% +1 0 1.06 30% 1.4 .41 8% .28 64% .18
Nov
15		 William & Mary B- C A+ F D+ 50% 10% 40% B+ C- A- C- B A+ B- C- C+ A+ A+ A- A A+ 34% 14% 52% B+ A+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 61% 67% 24% -2 +2 1.03 39% 0.9 .37 14% .32 68% .22 0.75 41% 29% 27% -12 +1 0.78 29% 1.5 .42 30% .21 42% .09
Nov
20		 Bucknell B+ A+ C+ C- B 47% 13% 40% A- B+ A+ F C+ C A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C- A+ B+ A A- A+ F A F
1.28 76% 43% 33% +9 +2 1.23 49% 0.8 .37 17% .45 75% .33 0.65 32% 25% 21% -21 +1 0.61 21% 0.9 .18 32% .42 68% .29
Nov
24		 Iowa St. A+ D- F B C- 46% 19% 35% A C A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C A+ A+ F A+ 43% 24% 33% B- A+ D- F F C+ F F F
1.20 50% 22% 35% -6 +1 0.92 42% 1.2 .50 15% .51 77% .39 1.21 43% 25% 44% -5 0 0.92 45% 1.3 .58 16% .43 80% .35
Nov
25		 Baylor A+ B- C- A+ A- 48% 15% 37% A+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ A D- A- B A+ C B+ A+ 42% 22% 36% F A+ F A+ B C+ B+ F C
1.34 62% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.9 .55 14% .36 68% .24 1.13 43% 42% 30% -7 0 0.87 51% 0.8 .39 15% .28 88% .25
Nov
26		 Auburn B C- F F F 44% 10% 46% A D- A+ A A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ C- F B F D- 49% 24% 27% B D F C F+ A- D- F F
1.11 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 45% 1.3 .57 21% .53 75% .40 1.28 73% 36% 42% +10 0 1.22 48% 1.1 .52 18% .46 84% .38
Dec
6		 Mississippi F F F F F 40% 13% 48% A F A B+ A+ F A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 28% F A+ D- A+ B A+ F D- F
0.88 31% 20% 21% -22 +1 0.60 39% 1.2 .47 28% .68 71% .48 0.81 55% 23% 15% -13 -1 0.74 36% 0.8 .28 28% .39 80% .31
Dec
13		 Iona B C+ A+ A A 42% 8% 50% B+ A C A B F A+ A+ A+ A A A- A+ A+ 52% 21% 26% D A+ D+ B- C C A+ D+ A+
1.20 62% 50% 40% +7 +2 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 22% .42 84% .36 0.84 44% 31% 25% -13 +1 0.79 27% 0.9 .25 17% .11 71% .08
Dec
16		 DePaul B D+ D A+ B- 47% 12% 41% A+ B+ C C C A B- A+ A- A- A+ D- A+ A+ 36% 22% 41% C+ A+ B F+ C- C A+ F A+
1.13 50% 33% 43% +1 +2 1.08 29% 0.9 .26 14% .35 81% .28 0.94 38% 46% 25% -11 0 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 17% .09 100% .09
Dec
20		 Kentucky C- F+ F F F 31% 29% 40% C- F B+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ B A+ F C+ A- 45% 30% 26% B+ A- F A D A+ F+ F F
0.95 46% 17% 24% -16 -2 0.67 32% 1.2 .38 17% .56 84% .47 1.13 43% 57% 33% -1 -1 0.98 48% 1.0 .48 23% .41 82% .34
Dec
23		 Harvard A- D+ A+ A B- 57% 2% 42% A+ B+ A+ C A+ D+ B+ B+ A- A+ F A- A+ B- 35% 27% 38% A B A- A+ A+ B+ B C B
1.25 53% 100% 41% +3 +4 1.15 47% 1.0 .47 18% .32 78% .25 0.87 82% 31% 22% 0 -1 1.00 19% 0.3 .06 22% .21 82% .17
Dec
31		 Georgetown A+ D+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B A+ C- B+ D- F F+ 40% 26% 34% C+ D- D- A+ B- B+ D- D+ D-
1.36 50% 30% 50% +8 -1 1.17 42% 1.6 .70 16% .44 77% .34 1.19 50% 46% 47% +6 -1 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 17% .40 78% .31
Jan
3		 Providence F F C+ F F 40% 18% 42% B F A+ D A D+ A+ F+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C- A+ C- F F C+ F B- F
0.95 32% 40% 17% -20 0 0.62 46% 0.9 .41 16% .59 65% .38 1.03 48% 10% 27% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.5 .56 16% .44 75% .33
Jan
6		 Butler A- B B- A- A- 37% 33% 30% F+ B F+ A+ C+ A+ C+ B- C+ A+ F B F F 38% 27% 36% A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F D
1.18 64% 40% 39% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.4 .29 7% .23 73% .17 0.98 71% 33% 44% +9 -1 1.18 22% 0.7 .15 29% .36 83% .30
Jan
10		 Creighton A+ B- B- A+ A+ 28% 33% 39% D- A+ B F C- A+ A D+ B+ B+ D C D- D+ 27% 20% 53% B+ C- A+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.34 60% 39% 57% +14 -2 1.26 33% 0.8 .28 9% .29 67% .20 1.09 69% 40% 38% +7 -1 1.14 7% 0.0 .00 13% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Marquette A B- A+ F C+ 54% 16% 30% A- B- A A A+ A A+ A+ A+ A C F D+ D+ 64% 5% 32% F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
1.23 61% 56% 24% 0 +2 1.05 41% 1.2 .47 16% .38 88% .34 0.91 57% 50% 36% +1 +4 1.11 21% 0.4 .09 25% .49 63% .31
Jan
17		 Villanova A+ B+ C B- B+ 45% 27% 29% B- B+ A- B+ A- A+ A+ C A+ B+ A- D- F C 28% 20% 52% B+ C+ A+ F C- A F D F
1.21 64% 38% 36% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.1 .39 13% .50 68% .34 1.11 54% 44% 42% +6 -1 1.13 27% 1.4 .38 20% .42 75% .32
Jan
20		 Seton Hall B- D+ F F F 58% 21% 21% B F A+ C A+ A A+ C- A+ A- A+ D+ F A- 60% 12% 28% F B F A+ B- A D- A+ B-
1.02 48% 22% 11% -16 +1 0.72 47% 1.0 .44 19% .58 70% .40 0.94 38% 40% 42% -8 +3 0.91 46% 0.7 .33 20% .39 55% .22
Jan
24		 Xavier A- D B+ B C+ 40% 32% 28% D+ C B+ A+ A+ A B+ D B B B+ D F D+ 38% 29% 34% C D+ A+ A A+ B+ D F F
1.15 52% 44% 38% +1 -1 1.02 33% 1.2 .40 13% .35 65% .23 1.09 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.13 16% 0.8 .13 16% .29 84% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Butler A+ A A A+ A+ 40% 21% 38% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A B C+ A+ F F+ A 54% 13% 33% D B+ B+ A A F F A+ C-
1.47 71% 45% 45% +13 0 1.29 42% 1.2 .52 8% .24 79% .19 1.12 40% 50% 40% -5 +2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 10% .53 50% .27
Feb
3		 DePaul C+ F F D F 53% 13% 34% A+ F A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 35% 26% 40% B A+ D A+ B A F+ D- F
1.04 32% 17% 31% -18 +2 0.70 37% 1.3 .46 11% .49 69% .34 0.85 60% 18% 24% -11 -1 0.79 34% 0.9 .31 23% .39 75% .30
Feb
6		 Connecticut A+ B- A+ D A 48% 13% 39% A A B A+ A+ A A+ C A+ A A- F F C- 53% 11% 36% F+ D+ A+ F A A A A+ A+
1.18 55% 67% 28% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.8 .55 15% .53 71% .37 1.05 52% 80% 47% +8 +2 1.23 21% 1.5 .31 22% .22 42% .09
Feb
9		 Xavier C B F F C- 57% 22% 20% A- C B- F F+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+ F B A 45% 35% 20% C+ A B+ F C- D+ B- A+ A-
1.05 65% 25% 27% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.4 .12 12% .56 68% .38 0.99 40% 52% 31% -4 -1 0.91 22% 1.3 .29 11% .23 53% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 7.9 19.1 7.0 34.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 6.9 21.3 24.6 7.0 60.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 0.9 4.8 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 9.2 22.8 32.4 26.0 7.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 7.0    7.0
18-2 73.3% 19.1    8.6 10.4
17-3 24.3% 7.9    1.5 6.1 0.3
16-4 2.7% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 34.5% 34.5 17.1 16.9 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 7.0% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 3.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 26.0% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 4.5 0.1 0.9 4.1 8.0 8.0 4.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 32.4% 99.9% 28.2% 71.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.0 9.9 9.7 5.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 22.8% 99.7% 23.0% 76.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.3 7.1 6.6 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
15-5 9.2% 98.0% 18.6% 79.5% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.2 97.6%
14-6 2.3% 94.2% 16.4% 77.9% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 93.1%
13-7 0.4% 97.1% 17.1% 80.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.6%
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.6% 28.1% 71.5% 5.4 0.5 99.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 2.2 21.9 41.7 29.1 6.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3% 100.0% 3.7 0.9 8.0 32.9 40.9 14.7 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 4.1 5.7 22.9 39.0 20.0 11.4 1.0