Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #180
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #154
Pace 70.1 #151
Improvement -7.9 #365

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #153 B- C+ F C- B
Defense #227 C+ B- F C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #41 1.15 #183 +3.4 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #265 0.76 #168 -1.4 #246
Three Pointers 39% #223 1.11 #55 +0.7 #153
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.8 #101
Freethrows 15.9 #279 76% #63 12.1 #221
Second Chance 35.4% #55 0.96 #283 0.34 #129
Turnovers 20.6% #357
Total Offense +0.3 #153

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #39 1.07 #77 -1.5 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.79 #224 -0.4 #207
Three Pointers 35% #336 1.01 #188 +3.2 #61
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #137 +1.3 #137
Freethrows 18.3 #220 73% #207 13.3 #218
Second Chance 28.9% #109 0.98 #88 0.28 #92
Turnovers 12.5% #353
Total Defense -1.7 #227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #57 0.8% #243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #128 -3.3% #123
Possession Length 18.3 #270 16.5 #58
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #257 0.21 #299
Improvement -1.7 #282 -6.2 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 7.5% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 13.9
.500 or above 94.9% 98.7% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.9% 64.6% 32.8%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 7.6% 22.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.1% 7.5% 2.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 7
Quad 412 - 316 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 331 @New Haven W 71 - 53 73% +16  1 - 0 +10 +2 A+ F F +10 A+ B- D
 Mon, Nov 10 7 @Connecticut L 62 - 89 2% -16  1 - 1 -4 +5 C+ C+ C -10 D C- F
 Thu, Nov 13 309 Umass Lowell W 86 - 72 83% +1  2 - 1 +3 +8 B+ B F -5 D A C-
 Tue, Nov 18 285 Boston University W 54 - 49 80% +12  3 - 1 -5 -18 F F F +14 A+ C F
 Fri, Nov 21 307 @Lehigh W 82 - 67 65% +9  4 - 1 +10 +9 A- A+ F +1 C C+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 262 Longwood W 95 - 70 76% +13  5 - 1 +16 +14 A+ A+ F +1 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 274 @Fairfield W 106 - 77 57% +18  6 - 1 +26 +28 A+ A+ C -3 C C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 126 Hofstra W 72 - 70 48% +6  7 - 1 +1 +2 A F F -0 A D+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 305 Albany W 93 - 65 82% +9  8 - 1 +17 +16 A+ A+ F +1 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 242 @Stony Brook L 73 - 77 OT 51% -8  8 - 2 -5 -9 F F F +4 A+ F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 75 @California L 56 - 74 13% -11  8 - 3 -7 -9 B+ F F +1 B A+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 350 @North Florida W 90 - 82 78% +1  9 - 3 -1 +5 A+ F D -7 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 5 187 @Cornell W 104 - 99 40% +1  10 - 3 1 - 0 +6 +10 A F F -4 B D- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 168 Harvard L 54 - 79 60% -13  10 - 4 1 - 1 -29 -12 F C- F -21 F D F
 Sat, Jan 17 264 @Brown L 80 - 86 OT 55% +1  10 - 5 1 - 2 -9 +7 D A+ C- -15 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 83 @Yale L 74 - 91 14% -9  10 - 6 1 - 3 -7 +8 D+ A+ F -17 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 24 221 @Dartmouth L 78 - 79 47%
 Fri, Jan 30 182 Penn W 80 - 77 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Princeton W 75 - 70 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 187 Cornell W 90 - 87 63%
 Fri, Feb 13 182 @Penn L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 214 @Princeton L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 Dartmouth W 81 - 76 69%
 Fri, Feb 27 264 Brown W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 83 Yale L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 168 @Harvard L 70 - 74 37%
Totals 15 - 11 6 - 8 -1 +0 B- C+ F -2 C+ B- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 2.6 1st
2nd 0.9 6.4 6.0 1.4 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.4 7.7 1.2 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.1 4.6 9.5 1.5 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 10.6 2.9 0.1 15.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 8.4 5.5 0.2 15.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 5.2 5.5 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.0 0.5 7.3 8th
Total 0.2 1.0 4.0 9.4 16.3 21.3 20.9 15.7 8.2 2.7 0.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 83.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1
10-4 44.4% 1.2    0.4 0.7 0.1
9-5 12.0% 1.0    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
8-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.4% 20.7% 20.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-4 2.7% 20.2% 20.2% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1
9-5 8.2% 19.0% 19.0% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.6
8-6 15.7% 13.6% 13.6% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 13.5
7-7 20.9% 3.6% 3.6% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 20.2
6-8 21.3% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 21.3
5-9 16.3% 16.3
4-10 9.4% 9.4
3-11 4.0% 4.0
2-12 1.0% 1.0
1-13 0.2% 0.2
0-14
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 13.8 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Lose Out 0.2%