St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#16
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#45
Pace75.3#46
Improvement-2.2#317

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#18
First Shot+7.6#20
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#86
Layup/Dunks+7.7#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#275
Freethrows+5.7#5
Improvement-3.0#356

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#13
First Shot+13.2#2
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#362
Layups/Dunks+1.0#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#7
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement+0.8#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.9% 3.9% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 11.1% 11.2% 3.3%
Top 4 Seed 37.5% 38.0% 16.0%
Top 6 Seed 65.0% 65.5% 40.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.1% 94.3% 83.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.0% 92.3% 79.7%
Average Seed 5.4 5.3 6.6
.500 or above 99.1% 99.2% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 97.4% 93.7%
Conference Champion 31.1% 31.3% 19.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four2.1% 2.0% 5.2%
First Round93.2% 93.5% 81.2%
Second Round73.5% 73.8% 56.5%
Sweet Sixteen39.6% 40.0% 23.3%
Elite Eight18.0% 18.2% 9.9%
Final Four8.2% 8.3% 3.6%
Championship Game3.4% 3.4% 1.5%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.3%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 7
Quad 28 - 214 - 9
Quad 36 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 154 Quinnipiac W 108-74 96%     1 - 0 +31.0 +16.9 +8.5
  Sat, Nov 8 10 Alabama L 96-103 56%     1 - 1 +8.7 +10.8 -1.0
  Sat, Nov 15 119 William & Mary W 93-60 94%     2 - 1 +33.1 +8.7 +20.2
  Thu, Nov 20 316 Bucknell W 97-49 99%     3 - 1 +36.4 +11.1 +21.5
  Mon, Nov 24 2 Iowa St. L 82-83 30%     3 - 2 +21.8 +22.3 -0.5
  Tue, Nov 25 34 Baylor W 96-81 66%     4 - 2 +28.0 +24.0 +3.6
  Wed, Nov 26 26 Auburn L 74-85 62%     4 - 3 +3.2 +9.4 -6.7
  Sat, Dec 6 57 Mississippi W 63-58 83%     5 - 3 +12.0 -7.5 +19.4
  Sat, Dec 13 176 Iona W 93-71 98%    
  Tue, Dec 16 134 DePaul W 86-67 96%    
  Sat, Dec 20 21 Kentucky W 81-79 58%    
  Tue, Dec 23 202 Harvard W 86-63 98%    
  Wed, Dec 31 86 @Georgetown W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 65 Providence W 90-78 86%    
  Tue, Jan 6 55 @Butler W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 43 @Creighton W 79-76 60%    
  Tue, Jan 13 88 Marquette W 86-72 90%    
  Sat, Jan 17 38 @Villanova W 74-72 56%    
  Tue, Jan 20 64 Seton Hall W 78-66 85%    
  Sat, Jan 24 77 @Xavier W 82-75 73%    
  Wed, Jan 28 55 Butler W 86-76 82%    
  Tue, Feb 3 134 @DePaul W 83-70 86%    
  Fri, Feb 6 6 Connecticut L 73-74 49%    
  Mon, Feb 9 77 Xavier W 85-72 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 65 @Providence W 87-81 70%    
  Wed, Feb 18 88 @Marquette W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 43 Creighton W 82-73 78%    
  Wed, Feb 25 6 @Connecticut L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 38 Villanova W 77-69 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 86 Georgetown W 86-72 89%    
  Fri, Mar 6 64 @Seton Hall W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 6.3 8.6 7.8 3.9 1.0 31.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 8.1 10.9 9.3 4.3 0.8 37.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.3 4.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.5 10.6 13.6 15.7 16.0 12.9 8.6 3.9 1.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 3.9    3.7 0.2
18-2 90.5% 7.8    6.3 1.5
17-3 66.4% 8.6    5.7 2.8 0.1
16-4 39.1% 6.3    3.2 2.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 18.3% 2.9    1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.1% 31.1 21.0 9.0 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.9% 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% 2.0 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.6% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 2.6 1.3 2.7 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.9% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 3.5 0.5 1.9 4.0 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.0% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 4.4 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.2 4.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.7% 99.7% 26.0% 73.6% 5.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.5 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-6 13.6% 98.9% 20.8% 78.1% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.6 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-7 10.6% 96.8% 16.9% 79.9% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 96.2%
12-8 7.5% 90.3% 13.0% 77.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 88.9%
11-9 4.8% 74.9% 9.6% 65.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.2 72.3%
10-10 2.8% 57.8% 7.6% 50.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 54.3%
9-11 1.4% 25.4% 5.9% 19.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1 20.7%
8-12 0.7% 3.7% 1.4% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.3%
7-13 0.3% 4.2% 4.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.1% 26.3% 67.8% 5.4 3.9 7.2 11.4 15.0 14.5 13.0 10.7 7.7 5.1 3.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 92.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 73.9 26.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 53.6 39.3 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 48.3 34.5 17.2