Kansas
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.0 12
Expected Predictive Rating +20.5 12
Pace 68.3 195
Improvement +3.2 56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ #37 B B+ B+ B- C-
Defense A #7 A+ A D+ A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 155 69% 8 +4.8 33
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 134 37% 203 +0.5 143
Three Pointers 38% 241 36% 90 -0.2 183
1st FG Attempt 1.12 49 +5.2 49
Second Chance 32.4% 125 1.24 10 0.40 38
Turnovers 14.1% 34
Freethrows 0.32 131 77% 30 0.25 89
Total Offense +8.3 37

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 336 47% 8 +7.6 8
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 88 30% 7 +0.8 122
Three Pointers 45% 61 27% 3 +2.5 82
1st FG Attempt 0.80 2 +10.9 2
Second Chance 25.6% 29 0.81 6 0.21 7
Turnovers 15.1% 291
Freethrows 0.21 8 66% 5 0.14 4
Total Defense +10.7 7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 215 -0.9 51
Shot Type Accuracy +5.2 38 -9.9 2
Possession Length 16.3 79 18.5 335
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 65 0.09 9
Improvement +2.0 #85 +1.3 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 1% 0%
#1 Seed 5% 10% 3%
Top 2 Seed 24% 40% 16%
Top 4 Seed 82% 94% 76%
Top 6 Seed 99% 100% 99%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 3.4 2.8 3.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 8% 17% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round94% 97% 93%
Sweet Sixteen57% 62% 55%
Elite Eight26% 31% 24%
Final Four11% 13% 10%
Championship Game4% 6% 4%
National Champion2% 2% 1%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 67 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 29 - 8
Quad 28 - 117 - 9
Quad 33 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 244 Green Bay W 94 - 51 98% +23  98% 1 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +19 A+ D A+ A+ +20 A+ A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 7 26 @North Carolina L 74 - 87 52% -2  51% 1 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 A A- F C +0 F+ A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77 - 46 98% +19  99% 2 - 1 A+ +25 C +1 A+ C+ F A+ +24 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 221 Princeton W 76 - 57 98% +6  72% 3 - 1 B+ +13 D+ -3 C+ D F A+ +15 A+ B- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 3 Duke L 66 - 78 33% -3  32% 3 - 2 B+ +12 B +7 C+ A+ A+ B +4 A B F+
 Mon, Nov 24 82 Notre Dame W 71 - 61 87% +6  81% 4 - 2 A- +17 C+ +3 B- B B- A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 67 Syracuse W 71 - 60 84% +7  93% 5 - 2 A +19 B- +4 C+ A+ F+ A+ +16 A+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 18 Tennessee W 81 - 76 54% -3  19% 6 - 2 A+ +23 A+ +16 B B A B+ +7 A A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 7 Connecticut L 56 - 61 54% +2  64% 6 - 3 B+ +13 D+ -3 C- D- A- A+ +16 A+ C+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 48 Missouri W 80 - 60 84% +8  73% 7 - 3 A+ +28 A +12 B- A+ A- A+ +18 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 27 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 OT 53% +1  45% 8 - 3 A +19 B- +4 B- D A+ A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 172 Towson W 73 - 49 97% +14  99% 9 - 3 A +20 B +5 C- A+ B A+ +17 A+ B- C
 Mon, Dec 22 111 Davidson W 90 - 61 95% +20  98% 10 - 3 A+ +30 A- +10 A+ A D A+ +18 A+ A- A
 Sat, Jan 3 52 @Central Florida L 75 - 81 70% -2  25% 10 - 4 0 - 1 B- +8 B- +4 D A- C B- +3 A- B F
 Tue, Jan 6 50 TCU W 104 - 100 OT 85% -4  19% 11 - 4 1 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +15 A B+ A+ D+ -4 D D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 56 @West Virginia L 75 - 86 72% -1  45% 11 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +2 A +13 B- B A+ F+ -11 F+ C- D
 Tue, Jan 13 8 Iowa St. W 84 - 63 55% +15  99% 12 - 5 2 - 2 A+ +39 A+ +25 A+ C+ A+ A+ +15 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 16 42 Baylor W 80 - 62 81% +11  96% 13 - 5 3 - 2 A+ +28 A +11 A D- A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 77 @Colorado W 75 - 69 79% +4  89% 14 - 5 4 - 2 A- +16 B- +5 C+ A D+ A +11 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 24 101 @Kansas St. W 86 - 62 85% +5  89% 15 - 5 5 - 2 A+ +32 A+ +20 B A+ B+ A+ +14 A+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 21 BYU W 90 - 82 67% +13  95% 16 - 5 6 - 2 A +23 A+ +19 A+ D+ A+ B- +3 B A D-
 Mon, Feb 2 16 @Texas Tech W 64 - 61 41% -1  36% 17 - 5 7 - 2 A+ +24 C- -1 C+ B+ F+ A+ +25 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 110 Utah W 71 - 59 94% +6  84% 18 - 5 8 - 2 B+ +13 D+ -3 B- D+ C+ A+ +16 A A+ B
 Mon, Feb 9 2 Arizona W 82 - 78 40% -2  24% 19 - 5 9 - 2 A+ +26 A +13 C A+ A A +12 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 8 @Iowa St. L 70 - 75 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 59 @Oklahoma St. W 82 - 75 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 45 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 84%
 Mon, Feb 23 5 Houston L 68 - 69 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 2 @Arizona L 71 - 80 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 69 @Arizona St. W 80 - 72 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 101 Kansas St. W 86 - 69 94%
Totals 23 - 8 13 - 5 +19 B+ +8 B B+ B+ A +11 A+ A D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ A C- B- B+ 39% 23% 38% C- B C+ A B+ B+ C+ B+ B- A A A A A+ 31% 23% 45% B A+ B+ A A D+ A A A
1.20 69% 37% 36% +5 0 1.12 32% 1.2 .40 14% .32 77% .25 0.93 47% 30% 27% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.8 .21 15% .21 66% .21
Nov
3		 Green Bay A+ A+ A+ A A+ 37% 16% 47% B- A+ C+ F D A+ B+ B- A- A+ C+ A+ A- A+ 22% 22% 56% A+ A+ A A+ A+ F+ B- A+ A
1.46 84% 50% 42% +17 +1 1.37 32% 0.9 .29 5% .39 75% .29 0.79 55% 9% 29% -12 -1 0.76 17% 0.3 .05 12% .32 61% .19
Nov
7		 North Carolina B- A- D A+ A+ 22% 34% 44% D- A C- A+ A- F B+ D B C F F C F+ 42% 16% 42% C- F+ F A+ A+ B+ A- B+ A-
1.05 64% 29% 45% +6 -3 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 20% .27 67% .18 1.23 74% 67% 35% +12 +1 1.27 44% 0.4 .17 16% .29 65% .18
Nov
11		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C A+ B+ C A+ 30% 21% 49% D A+ D+ A+ C+ F C D C- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 24% D A+ A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.08 92% 44% 33% +11 -1 1.23 26% 1.3 .33 25% .41 68% .28 0.65 47% 17% 8% -20 +1 0.64 14% 0.8 .12 17% .22 54% .12
Nov
15		 Princeton D+ A+ F F+ B- 35% 25% 40% D C+ C F D F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 14% 24% 63% A+ A+ A F B- C+ B- B+ B
1.07 88% 17% 26% +1 -1 1.02 28% 0.9 .25 20% .49 75% .37 0.80 29% 33% 25% -13 -2 0.71 19% 1.3 .24 18% .28 69% .19
Nov
18		 Duke B A+ F+ F C+ 34% 26% 40% C C+ C A+ A+ A+ B- C+ B- B D D A+ A+ 43% 8% 49% C+ A B- B- B F+ F A D
1.00 78% 29% 19% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.6 .36 12% .24 71% .17 1.18 68% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 12% .45 65% .29
Nov
24		 Notre Dame C+ B A- F+ B 38% 26% 36% C B- B B- B B- D D- D- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 24% 36% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F C
1.08 63% 46% 28% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 14% .23 69% .16 0.93 64% 23% 20% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.4 .09 8% .25 87% .21
Nov
25		 Syracuse B- C D- C B- 47% 26% 28% C C+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% A A+ A F B- F C- A B-
1.09 55% 27% 33% -4 0 0.93 42% 1.4 .58 23% .40 90% .36 0.92 53% 15% 21% -16 -1 0.68 23% 1.3 .30 3% .36 57% .21
Nov
26		 Tennessee A+ C+ D C+ B 45% 25% 29% C+ B B B- B A A+ A+ A+ B+ B- C- B A- 33% 27% 40% A A A+ C+ A+ F B- F C-
1.17 57% 31% 33% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.0 .29 13% .50 87% .43 1.10 56% 40% 32% -1 -1 0.96 31% 1.0 .31 10% .35 77% .27
Dec
2		 Connecticut D+ C+ F+ F C 33% 31% 36% D- C- C F D- A- A- C B+ A+ F A A+ A+ 26% 26% 49% A+ A+ B+ D- C+ A A+ D A+
0.90 53% 29% 25% -9 -2 0.80 25% 0.6 .14 16% .40 71% .29 0.98 75% 33% 22% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .41 21% .16 75% .12
Dec
7		 Missouri A B+ F C+ C+ 45% 19% 36% A- B- A A+ A+ A- A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% F A+ C+ A+ A+ D- C- A+ B+
1.22 62% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.3 .48 14% .46 73% .34 0.91 52% 0% 23% -13 +2 0.80 36% 0.7 .24 15% .38 52% .20
Dec
13		 North Carolina St. B- B F B B- 33% 18% 49% D+ B- C- F+ D A+ F F F A+ B- B+ A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ D- A B- A+
1.03 60% 27% 37% +1 0 1.03 23% 0.8 .19 11% .15 60% .09 1.01 58% 30% 26% -7 +1 0.89 23% 0.8 .19 9% .22 73% .16
Dec
16		 Towson B D- B D D+ 41% 18% 41% B- C- A- A+ A+ B C- F+ D A+ B- A- A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% B- A+ F+ A B- C B+ B- B+
1.15 50% 44% 30% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.6 .54 14% .26 64% .16 0.77 53% 31% 11% -17 -2 0.64 42% 0.6 .25 17% .23 67% .15
Dec
22		 Davidson A- A+ F A+ A+ 44% 23% 33% B A+ C A+ A D F A+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 34% 18% 48% C- A+ B+ B+ A- A A+ A+ A+
1.22 76% 31% 47% +13 0 1.28 30% 1.5 .44 20% .09 100% .09 0.83 37% 20% 37% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .24 22% .10 33% .03
Jan
3		 Central Florida B- C+ F+ F+ D 33% 25% 41% D+ D B+ B+ A- C A C+ A B- B- B B+ A 40% 23% 38% C+ A- A- C B F F A- F
1.08 59% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 31% 1.2 .36 17% .40 74% .29 1.16 57% 33% 30% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.2 .39 9% .41 69% .28
Jan
6		 TCU A+ C+ B A+ A 42% 25% 33% C A C- A+ B+ A+ A+ A- A+ D+ B+ F F F+ 27% 24% 48% A D C- F+ D- B+ C A+ B-
1.21 57% 43% 44% +6 0 1.13 25% 1.4 .36 15% .55 75% .41 1.16 53% 47% 43% +8 -1 1.15 36% 1.3 .44 19% .34 63% .21
Jan
10		 West Virginia A A F D B- 35% 18% 47% C B- B- A- B A+ B+ A+ A F+ A+ F F F 39% 17% 43% C+ F+ C- C C- D F D- F
1.13 68% 20% 31% -2 0 0.98 27% 1.2 .32 9% .30 83% .25 1.29 44% 75% 45% +8 0 1.20 33% 1.2 .39 14% .50 72% .36
Jan
13		 Iowa St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 42% B+ A+ A F C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ 46% 10% 44% F+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.29 60% 60% 45% +12 0 1.27 37% 0.8 .30 14% .21 83% .18 0.97 50% 0% 35% -7 +2 0.92 40% 0.5 .21 18% .21 55% .11
Jan
16		 Baylor A B A+ D+ B+ 45% 27% 29% A+ A F+ D+ D- A+ D A+ C- A+ A+ A+ B A+ 34% 19% 47% F A+ A+ A- A+ B A+ B A+
1.21 64% 53% 31% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.9 .18 6% .21 85% .18 0.94 39% 30% 32% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.0 .27 17% .18 70% .13
Jan
20		 Colorado B- A F A- B 28% 33% 39% F+ C+ B- A+ A D+ A+ A A+ A A+ B+ A+ A+ 25% 25% 49% A A+ A F C F A A+ A+
1.11 69% 27% 39% +2 -2 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 18% .43 79% .34 1.02 47% 33% 24% -11 -2 0.76 25% 1.3 .31 4% .25 63% .16
Jan
24		 Kansas St. A+ A+ B+ F A 28% 43% 30% F B A A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ 16% 35% 49% A+ A+ C+ A A- F+ C+ C+ C+
1.32 85% 45% 21% +5 -4 1.04 44% 1.8 .78 15% .44 83% .36 0.95 50% 17% 36% -7 -4 0.80 33% 0.8 .28 12% .25 71% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 BYU A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% B A+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ F A B- D+ D- C+ B 21% 26% 53% A- B A B A D- B+ A+ A
1.30 65% 50% 50% +15 -1 1.30 14% 1.8 .24 9% .38 63% .24 1.18 67% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 10% .27 65% .18
Feb
2		 Texas Tech C- A+ C F+ B- 22% 39% 39% D- C+ F+ A+ B+ F+ D+ A+ C A+ A+ D B A+ 14% 29% 57% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 73% 37% 26% -2 -3 0.92 16% 2.0 .32 22% .24 77% .18 0.88 13% 47% 33% -4 -3 0.88 30% 0.5 .15 13% .08 60% .05
Feb
7		 Utah D+ A+ B+ F B 42% 26% 32% D+ B- F+ B D+ C+ C+ A- B- A+ D A+ A A+ 41% 24% 35% B+ A A+ A+ A+ B C+ A+ B+
1.06 76% 46% 19% +2 0 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 15% .28 75% .21 0.88 65% 17% 29% -5 0 0.92 19% 0.6 .11 18% .29 63% .18
Feb
9		 Arizona A D+ D C+ C 31% 42% 27% D C A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+ B- F A+ 28% 48% 23% A+ A+ D+ B- C+ B A+ A+ A+
1.10 47% 30% 33% -7 -3 0.82 39% 1.1 .43 15% .40 84% .33 1.05 47% 38% 43% 0 -4 0.93 43% 0.9 .38 18% .23 57% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.4 1.9 8.3 1st
2nd 1.5 12.9 6.8 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 20.3 15.6 0.6 39.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 10.7 9.4 0.3 21.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 4.0 0.3 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.7 5.4 18.0 31.5 29.7 12.8 1.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.9    1.2 0.7
15-3 42.4% 5.4    0.8 3.0 1.7 0.0
14-4 3.2% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 2.0 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.9% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 1.8 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.8% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 2.2 2.4 5.8 3.9 0.7 100.0%
14-4 29.7% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 2.9 1.7 7.9 12.4 6.6 1.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 31.5% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 3.6 0.4 3.4 11.6 11.1 4.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.0% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 4.3 0.1 0.5 3.5 6.5 5.3 2.1 0.1 100.0%
11-7 5.4% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 5.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.7% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 9.6% 90.5% 3.4 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.5 53.8 46.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.8 32.0 60.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.8 28.4 59.7 11.9