East Texas A&M
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.1 #324
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #258
Pace 73.1 #76
Improvement -2.8 #316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #346 C- F F D- C
Defense #254 D- C- C C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.15 #179 -2.3 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.69 #256 -1.5 #250
Three Pointers 48% #61 0.94 #266 +1.6 #125
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #237 -2.1 #236
Freethrows 14.6 #315 69% #279 10.1 #316
Second Chance 24.1% #332 0.87 #342 0.21 #350
Turnovers 19.9% #341
Total Offense -7.5 #346

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.17 #185 -5.4 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #318 0.73 #141 +2.0 #50
Three Pointers 37% #288 1.18 #348 -1.0 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #309 -4.4 #309
Freethrows 18.1 #221 69% #56 12.5 #177
Second Chance 33.1% #273 1.04 #183 0.34 #237
Turnovers 17.0% #159
Total Defense -2.5 #254

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #183 2.6% #355
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.3% #242 5.8% #288
Possession Length 16.8 #135 16.2 #36
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #207 0.19 #255
Improvement -2.2 #313 -0.6 #229

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 3.4% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 53.7% 39.1% 61.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 36.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 48 - 89 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 56 @New Mexico L 54 - 76 3%  -16  0 - 1 -9 -16 F F F +9 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 9 98 @Hawaii L 74 - 100 5%  -17  0 - 2 -18 +2 A D F -17 F F C
 Fri, Nov 14 245 @Rice L 64 - 71 21%  -2  0 - 3 -9 -6 C F F -3 F D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 70 - 65 49%  -5  1 - 3 -5 -5 D D- F +1 F D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 330 Army W 84 - 67 52%  +10  2 - 3 +6 +7 A+ F F -0 C C+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 5 @Connecticut L 59 - 83 0%  -13  2 - 4 +1 +3 A+ D- D+ -4 B B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 261 Central Arkansas W 75 - 68 45%  +1  3 - 4 -2 -7 F B D+ +5 D+ A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 87 @McNeese St. L 66 - 102 4%  -26  3 - 5 0 - 1 -26 -10 C F F -12 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 260 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 69 24%  -1  4 - 5 1 - 1 -2 +4 C+ F C+ -6 F B- F
 Sun, Dec 21 40 @Texas A&M L 77 - 118 2%  -22  4 - 6 -25 -2 F F B- -17 F F C+
 Mon, Dec 29 112 Stephen F. Austin L 48 - 75 15%  -6  4 - 7 1 - 2 -26 -19 D+ F F -9 C- C- C
 Wed, Dec 31 231 Lamar L 62 - 69 38%  +0  4 - 8 1 - 3 -14 -8 F A F -6 A- F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 215 @Nicholls St. L 58 - 80 17%  -12  4 - 9 1 - 4 -22 -17 F F F -4 C D B+
 Mon, Jan 5 236 @New Orleans L 73 - 83 20%  -8  4 - 10 1 - 5 -11 -3 C- F C -8 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 220 UT Rio Grande Valley L 71 - 75 36% 
 Mon, Jan 12 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67 - 72 31% 
 Sat, Jan 17 300 @Houston Christian L 68 - 73 31% 
 Mon, Jan 19 165 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 79 12% 
 Sat, Jan 24 288 @Northwestern St. L 69 - 75 29% 
 Mon, Jan 26 231 @Lamar L 64 - 73 20% 
 Sat, Jan 31 215 Nicholls St. L 71 - 75 35% 
 Mon, Feb 2 236 New Orleans L 76 - 79 38% 
 Sat, Feb 7 288 Northwestern St. L 71 - 72 50% 
 Mon, Feb 9 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 5% 
 Sat, Feb 14 87 McNeese St. L 66 - 80 10% 
 Mon, Feb 16 260 SE Louisiana L 69 - 70 45% 
 Sat, Feb 21 165 Incarnate Word L 70 - 76 29% 
 Mon, Feb 23 300 Houston Christian W 71 - 70 53% 
 Sat, Feb 28 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 78 18% 
 Mon, Mar 2 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 75 15% 
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 16 -10 -8 C- F F -3 D- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.6 5.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.6 8.5 8.2 2.7 0.2 23.8 11th
12th 1.2 4.9 10.3 12.0 8.6 2.6 0.3 39.8 12th
Total 1.2 4.9 10.8 15.7 18.6 17.2 13.4 9.1 5.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-10 0.4% 0.4
11-11 1.1% 1.1
10-12 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
9-13 5.2% 5.2
8-14 9.1% 9.1
7-15 13.4% 13.4
6-16 17.2% 17.2
5-17 18.6% 18.6
4-18 15.7% 15.7
3-19 10.8% 10.8
2-20 4.9% 4.9
1-21 1.2% 1.2
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%