East Texas A&M
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.0 #311
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #270
Pace 71.3 #115
Improvement -0.3 #200

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #346 D+ D D+ F+ C+
Defense #237 D+ D+ C+ C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #241 1.13 #214 -1.9 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #257 0.68 #305 -2.1 #285
Three Pointers 47% #61 0.92 #301 +0.7 #149
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #278 -3.3 #277
Freethrows 0.24 #348 66% #345 0.16 #356
Second Chance 25.5% #318 0.92 #311 0.23 #339
Turnovers 18.4% #294
Total Offense -7.4 #346

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.15 #170 -3.9 #311
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #313 0.76 #180 +1.7 #61
Three Pointers 39% #258 1.11 #308 -0.5 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #273 -2.7 #273
Freethrows 0.32 #233 70% #71 0.22 #212
Second Chance 32.9% #278 1.09 #278 0.36 #291
Turnovers 17.4% #137
Total Defense -1.6 #237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #150 2.2% #349
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #297 3.0% #241
Possession Length 17.0 #146 16.7 #97
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #232 0.18 #224
Improvement -0.8 #229 +0.5 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.3% 34.9% 57.4%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 51 - 12
Quad 48 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 45 @New Mexico L 54 - 76 2% -16  0 - 1 -7 -16 F+ D- F +10 A F+ A
 Sun, Nov 9 102 @Hawaii L 74 - 100 7% -17  0 - 2 -18 +1 B D D -17 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 14 233 @Rice L 64 - 71 22% -2  0 - 3 -8 -7 C- F+ F -1 F C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 70 - 65 49% -5  1 - 3 -4 -4 D+ D F+ +1 F D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 336 Army W 84 - 67 58% +10  2 - 3 +6 +5 A- F+ D- +1 C B- C+
 Fri, Dec 5 9 @Connecticut L 59 - 83 1% -13  2 - 4 -0 +3 A F+ C -5 C+ B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 219 Central Arkansas W 75 - 68 40% +1  3 - 4 +1 -6 F B+ C +6 C A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 85 @McNeese St. L 66 - 102 5% -26  3 - 5 0 - 1 -26 -11 D+ F F+ -12 F F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 271 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 69 29% -1  4 - 5 1 - 1 -2 +5 B- F B- -7 D B- F
 Sun, Dec 21 27 @Texas A&M L 77 - 118 1% -22  4 - 6 -22 +0 F+ D+ B- -16 F F B-
 Mon, Dec 29 105 Stephen F. Austin L 48 - 75 17% -6  4 - 7 1 - 2 -26 -19 D+ F F -9 C D C
 Wed, Dec 31 197 Lamar L 62 - 69 37% +0  4 - 8 1 - 3 -12 -9 F A F -4 A F D
 Sat, Jan 3 249 @Nicholls St. L 58 - 80 26% -12  4 - 9 1 - 4 -24 -18 F D- F -5 C- D B
 Mon, Jan 5 218 @New Orleans L 73 - 83 21% -8  4 - 10 1 - 5 -10 -3 C- F C -7 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 181 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 69 33% +9  5 - 10 2 - 5 +3 +8 A- A+ C- -4 D C C+
 Mon, Jan 12 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 50 - 61 36% -5  5 - 11 2 - 6 -16 -20 F D C- +3 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 297 @Houston Christian L 70 - 81 35% +3  5 - 12 2 - 7 -16 -6 C- F D- -10 D F B
 Mon, Jan 19 248 @Incarnate Word W 80 - 58 26% +11  6 - 12 3 - 7 +20 +18 A- A A+ +6 A+ D- F
 Tue, Jan 27 197 @Lamar L 61 - 82 19% -7  6 - 13 3 - 8 -20 -8 F B- A -13 F D- B
 Sat, Jan 31 249 Nicholls St. L 68 - 72 47% -6  6 - 14 3 - 9 -12 -8 F+ F C+ -5 C D- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 218 New Orleans L 75 - 78 40%
 Wed, Feb 4 270 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 270 Northwestern St. W 72 - 71 51%
 Mon, Feb 9 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 78 6%
 Sat, Feb 14 85 McNeese St. L 65 - 78 11%
 Mon, Feb 16 271 SE Louisiana W 69 - 68 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 248 Incarnate Word L 72 - 73 47%
 Mon, Feb 23 297 Houston Christian W 72 - 70 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 76 16%
 Mon, Mar 2 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 73 18%
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 16 -9 -7 D+ D D+ -2 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.8 4.6 3.3 0.2 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.7 6.8 6.3 0.7 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 0.5 7.3 10.1 1.7 0.0 19.6 10th
11th 0.5 6.6 11.6 3.6 0.2 22.4 11th
12th 2.3 9.7 13.1 4.9 0.3 30.2 12th
Total 2.3 10.2 20.1 24.5 21.6 13.2 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.0% 0.0
11-11 0.4% 0.4
10-12 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
9-13 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
8-14 13.2% 13.2
7-15 21.6% 21.6
6-16 24.5% 24.5
5-17 20.1% 20.1
4-18 10.2% 10.2
3-19 2.3% 2.3
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%