Houston Christian
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#290
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#268
Pace64.7#276
Improvement+4.3#32

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#245
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#266
Layup/Dunks+2.6#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#250
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement+2.1#74

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#296
First Shot-5.5#336
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#80
Layups/Dunks-10.0#364
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#55
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement+2.2#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.1% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 4.6% 5.6% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 86.8% 58.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 79.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 410 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Texas L 59-90 2%     0 - 1 -14.4 -3.2 -12.5
  Nov 13, 2024 28   @ Creighton L 43-78 2%     0 - 2 -18.2 -19.2 -0.3
  Nov 22, 2024 192   Rice L 58-61 38%     0 - 3 -7.0 -8.9 +1.5
  Nov 25, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan L 73-74 62%     0 - 4 -11.2 -2.1 -9.2
  Nov 27, 2024 250   Northern Arizona L 71-74 53%     0 - 5 -10.7 +0.1 -11.1
  Nov 30, 2024 202   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-78 24%     0 - 6 -6.6 +0.7 -7.8
  Dec 05, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-79 76%     1 - 6 1 - 0 -10.3 +5.2 -15.5
  Dec 07, 2024 293   Northwestern St. L 57-64 60%     1 - 7 1 - 1 -16.6 -10.1 -7.6
  Dec 17, 2024 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-68 54%     2 - 7 -2.0 -1.7 -0.4
  Dec 20, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 45-77 2%     2 - 8 -13.6 -11.9 -6.0
  Dec 22, 2024 70   @ North Texas L 46-62 6%     2 - 9 -5.7 -7.1 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 218   @ Lamar L 61-63 27%     2 - 10 1 - 2 -2.7 -7.4 +4.6
  Jan 06, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin W 83-73 37%     3 - 10 2 - 2 +6.4 +11.2 -5.1
  Jan 11, 2025 291   Incarnate Word W 81-76 60%     4 - 10 3 - 2 -4.6 +11.5 -15.4
  Jan 13, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 59-75 15%     4 - 11 3 - 3 -11.9 -11.2 -0.9
  Jan 18, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 66-57 55%     5 - 11 4 - 3 +0.7 -12.3 +12.9
  Jan 20, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-72 38%     6 - 11 5 - 3 +0.2 -0.7 +0.8
  Jan 25, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 86-76 63%     7 - 11 6 - 3 -0.4 +7.7 -8.0
  Jan 27, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana W 70-62 29%     8 - 11 7 - 3 +6.8 +6.0 +1.7
  Feb 01, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word L 64-74 40%     8 - 12 7 - 4 -14.6 -3.7 -12.5
  Feb 03, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. L 67-75 23%     8 - 13 7 - 5 -7.2 +3.3 -11.5
  Feb 08, 2025 351   New Orleans W 78-70 80%    
  Feb 10, 2025 228   SE Louisiana L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-76 34%    
  Feb 17, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-76 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 218   Lamar L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 24, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin W 66-64 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. L 65-67 39%    
  Mar 03, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 70-68 56%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.4 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.3 5.3 0.7 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 9.9 1.9 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 11.5 5.1 0.2 18.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 11.2 10.1 0.7 23.9 6th
7th 0.8 7.4 8.0 1.0 17.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 4.3 0.9 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.1 0.3 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 4.6 13.9 22.1 26.0 20.4 9.4 2.7 0.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.4% 7.3% 7.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 2.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.6
13-7 9.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 9.1
12-8 20.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.1
11-9 26.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.9
10-10 22.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.0
9-11 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
8-12 4.6% 4.6
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%