Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 #300
Expected Predictive Rating -10.3 #320
Pace 62.8 #335
Improvement -1.5 #265

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #257 C- F C D- C
Defense #324 D- D+ C B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #105 1.19 #139 +2.3 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.61 #335 -1.2 #230
Three Pointers 37% #261 0.98 #220 -2.4 #271
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #203 -1.3 #202
Freethrows 16.1 #248 62% #361 9.9 #323
Second Chance 25.6% #317 0.92 #313 0.24 #331
Turnovers 16.3% #158
Total Offense -2.8 #257

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.37 #357 -5.6 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #238 0.65 #55 +1.7 #69
Three Pointers 41% #193 1.07 #265 -1.2 #226
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #328 -5.0 #328
Freethrows 13.7 #32 76% #317 10.5 #310
Second Chance 30.6% #174 1.19 #321 0.37 #282
Turnovers 16.2% #201
Total Defense -4.9 #324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #176 0.9% #260
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.8% #218 8.9% #327
Possession Length 19.0 #334 17.8 #263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #218 0.18 #220
Improvement -0.5 #220 -1.0 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.4
.500 or above 0.8% 3.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 4.9% 16.1% 4.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.7% 14.5% 33.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 8.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 72 - 12
Quad 47 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 108 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 9%  -13  0 - 1 -11 -10 C F F -1 D- B B+
 Thu, Nov 13 356 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 80%  -3  1 - 1 -6 -10 F F B- +5 C A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 280 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 46%  +1  1 - 2 -12 -1 F A+ B -11 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 360 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 67%  +6  2 - 2 -5 +4 C+ C F -8 D+ F F
 Sat, Nov 29 213 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 23%  -6  2 - 3 -18 -10 D- F F -9 F D F
 Tue, Dec 2 133 @North Texas L 75 - 77 13%  -1  2 - 4 +3 +19 A+ F A+ -17 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 236 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 26%  +4  3 - 4 1 - 0 +8 +15 B- A- A+ -7 F A- F
 Sat, Dec 13 260 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 54%  -3  3 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -4 C- D D -8 D+ D- B-
 Mon, Dec 15 87 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 14%  +1  3 - 6 1 - 2 -6 +8 C- C+ A+ -16 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 215 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 23%  -11  3 - 7 1 - 3 -15 -7 D F F -8 D+ D F
 Mon, Dec 29 3 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 0%  -12  3 - 8 -2 +6 B F A+ -9 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 165 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 17%  -9  3 - 9 1 - 4 -15 -15 F F F -0 C A C-
 Mon, Jan 5 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 38%  -8  3 - 10 1 - 5 -21 -7 D- B- F -14 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 61 - 76 8% 
 Mon, Jan 12 231 @Lamar L 63 - 70 26% 
 Sat, Jan 17 324 East Texas A&M W 73 - 68 69% 
 Mon, Jan 19 288 Northwestern St. W 71 - 69 59% 
 Sat, Jan 24 220 UT Rio Grande Valley L 70 - 72 44% 
 Mon, Jan 26 165 Incarnate Word L 69 - 73 35% 
 Sat, Jan 31 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 73 21% 
 Mon, Feb 2 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 75 24% 
 Sat, Feb 7 260 @SE Louisiana L 65 - 70 32% 
 Mon, Feb 9 87 @McNeese St. L 62 - 79 5% 
 Sat, Feb 14 236 New Orleans L 74 - 75 48% 
 Mon, Feb 16 215 Nicholls St. L 70 - 72 43% 
 Sat, Feb 21 288 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 72 37% 
 Mon, Feb 23 324 @East Texas A&M L 70 - 71 47% 
 Sat, Feb 28 112 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 73 21% 
 Mon, Mar 2 231 Lamar L 66 - 67 48% 
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 15 -8 -3 C- F C -5 D- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.2 1.0 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.1 6.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 14.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 6.1 7.3 2.5 0.3 17.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.6 8.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 22.8 11th
12th 0.3 2.0 4.5 6.8 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 20.6 12th
Total 0.3 2.0 5.0 9.9 14.2 17.1 16.6 14.0 9.9 6.1 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-7 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0% 0.0
15-7 0.0% 0.0
14-8 0.1% 11.5% 11.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-9 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4
12-10 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 1.3
11-11 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.0
10-12 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
9-13 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9
8-14 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
7-15 16.6% 16.6
6-16 17.1% 17.1
5-17 14.2% 14.2
4-18 9.9% 9.9
3-19 5.0% 5.0
2-20 2.0% 2.0
1-21 0.3% 0.3
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.4 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%