Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #297
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #307
Pace 62.5 #336
Improvement +0.8 #150

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #214 C D+ C- D+ C
Defense #342 F+ D+ C C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.15 #181 +1.0 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.66 #322 -0.9 #233
Three Pointers 39% #225 1.04 #139 -0.6 #210
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.6 #191
Freethrows 0.29 #235 68% #316 0.20 #266
Second Chance 28.9% #234 0.89 #332 0.26 #289
Turnovers 17.8% #251
Total Offense -1.8 #214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.37 #363 -7.2 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #335 0.69 #70 +2.6 #17
Three Pointers 42% #146 1.13 #335 -3.0 #307
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #361 -7.6 #361
Freethrows 0.28 #100 74% #252 0.20 #122
Second Chance 33.1% #285 1.06 #239 0.35 #281
Turnovers 17.0% #159
Total Defense -6.2 #342

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #181 2.1% #344
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #193 12.6% #358
Possession Length 19.0 #333 17.6 #246
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.21 #305
Improvement +2.0 #81 -1.2 #251

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.8 15.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 3.4% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.7% 15.1% 35.5%
First Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 138 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 13% -13  0 - 1 -14 -9 C+ F F -5 F+ C B-
 Thu, Nov 13 360 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 83% -3  1 - 1 -7 -10 F+ F B- +3 C- A B+
 Tue, Nov 25 305 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 51% +1  1 - 2 -13 -3 F B+ B- -11 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 344 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 53% +6  2 - 2 -2 +8 B- B- D- -9 C- F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 260 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 30% -6  2 - 3 -21 -11 F+ F F+ -11 F D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 147 @North Texas L 75 - 77 14% -1  2 - 4 +2 +19 A+ F A+ -17 F F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 218 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 23% +4  3 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +15 C+ B+ A+ -6 D- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 271 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 55% -3  3 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -3 C- D+ D+ -9 D+ D C
 Mon, Dec 15 85 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 14% +1  3 - 6 1 - 2 -6 +7 D+ B A+ -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 249 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 29% -11  3 - 7 1 - 3 -17 -8 D D F+ -9 D D F
 Mon, Dec 29 4 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  3 - 8 -3 +4 B F+ B -8 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 248 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 29% -9  3 - 9 1 - 4 -19 -17 F F F -3 D+ B D-
 Mon, Jan 5 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 40% -8  3 - 10 1 - 5 -21 -6 D- C F -15 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 9% -15  3 - 11 1 - 6 -11 +7 A D+ F -20 F+ F+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 197 @Lamar L 56 - 64 21% +1  3 - 12 1 - 7 -7 -8 F D- C- +0 F+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 311 East Texas A&M W 81 - 70 65% -3  4 - 12 2 - 7 -1 +7 C+ C+ D -8 F B C+
 Mon, Jan 19 270 Northwestern St. W 82 - 80 55% -4  5 - 12 3 - 7 -7 +25 A+ A+ C -32 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 181 UT Rio Grande Valley L 51 - 68 37% -8  5 - 13 3 - 8 -22 -15 C D- F -9 F A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 248 Incarnate Word W 81 - 75 51% -6  6 - 13 4 - 8 -2 +1 F+ A- D -3 F+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 73 21% -0  6 - 14 4 - 9 -1 +13 A+ F C+ -14 F A- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 76 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 271 @SE Louisiana L 66 - 71 33%
 Mon, Feb 9 85 @McNeese St. L 63 - 81 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 218 New Orleans L 75 - 77 43%
 Mon, Feb 16 249 Nicholls St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 270 @Northwestern St. L 69 - 74 33%
 Mon, Feb 23 311 @East Texas A&M L 70 - 72 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 105 Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 75 20%
 Mon, Mar 2 197 Lamar L 68 - 70 41%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 15 -8 -2 C D+ C- -6 F+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.4 1.1 0.2 1.7 6th
7th 0.4 2.6 1.6 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.3 4.9 0.5 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 7.5 9.2 1.5 0.0 19.1 9th
10th 0.5 7.5 12.8 3.2 0.1 24.0 10th
11th 0.3 5.8 11.9 4.5 0.2 22.6 11th
12th 3.5 8.1 3.7 0.3 15.5 12th
Total 3.8 14.3 24.0 25.8 18.2 9.5 3.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.2% 0.2
11-11 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.7
10-12 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
9-13 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
8-14 18.2% 18.2
7-15 25.8% 25.8
6-16 24.0% 24.0
5-17 14.3% 14.3
4-18 3.8% 3.8
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8%