Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#132
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#102
Pace70.1#130
Improvement+2.3#79

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#227
First Shot-2.9#261
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#123
Layup/Dunks+3.1#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#337
Freethrows-0.3#188
Improvement+0.6#148

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#78
First Shot+1.0#146
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#19
Layups/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#104
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement+1.7#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.1% 21.0% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 47.1% 53.2% 30.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.1% 21.0% 17.5%
Second Round1.4% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 38 - 7
Quad 412 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 143   UTEP W 89-60 61%     1 - 0 +27.7 +8.5 +16.5
  Nov 14, 2024 269   @ North Dakota L 71-77 69%     1 - 1 -9.6 -8.6 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 171   @ Murray St. W 77-75 48%     2 - 1 +4.2 +7.4 -3.1
  Nov 26, 2024 345   West Georgia W 77-74 89%     3 - 1 -8.9 -3.6 -5.3
  Nov 27, 2024 109   @ Samford L 76-84 32%     3 - 2 -1.6 -2.4 +1.5
  Nov 28, 2024 139   North Dakota St. L 63-83 51%     3 - 3 -18.7 -2.5 -19.6
  Dec 03, 2024 78   @ Stanford L 63-77 22%     3 - 4 -4.1 -9.3 +5.9
  Dec 07, 2024 137   @ James Madison L 61-78 41%     3 - 5 -13.1 -5.6 -8.9
  Dec 11, 2024 269   North Dakota W 80-57 83%     4 - 5 +14.4 +3.0 +12.7
  Dec 14, 2024 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 40%     4 - 6 +0.3 -3.8 +3.9
  Dec 18, 2024 234   @ Idaho St. W 70-56 63%     5 - 6 +12.3 -5.6 +17.6
  Dec 21, 2024 286   @ Weber St. W 64-62 72%     6 - 6 -2.3 +0.0 -1.9
  Jan 04, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 64-53 80%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +3.7 -10.8 +14.1
  Jan 09, 2025 74   Grand Canyon W 72-64 37%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +13.1 +3.6 +9.5
  Jan 11, 2025 161   California Baptist W 75-69 64%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +3.8 -1.6 +5.2
  Jan 16, 2025 200   @ Texas Arlington W 85-83 OT 54%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +2.7 +2.2 +0.3
  Jan 18, 2025 292   Utah Tech W 96-80 85%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +6.4 +17.9 -11.5
  Jan 23, 2025 161   @ California Baptist W 74-69 46%     12 - 6 6 - 0 +7.8 +4.3 +3.7
  Jan 25, 2025 162   @ Seattle W 70-66 46%     13 - 6 7 - 0 +6.7 +2.6 +4.3
  Feb 01, 2025 74   @ Grand Canyon L 57-75 21%     13 - 7 7 - 1 -8.0 -10.1 +2.4
  Feb 06, 2025 200   Texas Arlington W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   Tarleton St. W 69-60 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 268   @ Southern Utah W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 292   @ Utah Tech W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 162   Seattle W 71-67 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 76-66 84%    
  Mar 06, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 247   @ Tarleton St. W 67-63 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.7 14.7 17.4 8.4 47.1 1st
2nd 0.4 3.5 11.0 17.2 13.4 3.8 49.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.0 12.6 23.0 28.2 21.2 8.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 8.4    7.0 1.4
14-2 82.0% 17.4    10.9 6.6
13-3 52.3% 14.7    6.8 7.9 0.1
12-4 24.6% 5.7    1.7 3.5 0.4 0.0
11-5 6.8% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 47.1% 47.1 26.5 19.9 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 8.4% 28.6% 28.6% 12.4 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.0 6.0
14-2 21.2% 24.2% 24.2% 13.2 0.7 3.0 1.4 0.1 16.1
13-3 28.2% 21.7% 21.7% 13.6 0.3 2.3 3.0 0.5 22.0
12-4 23.0% 18.0% 18.0% 14.0 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.8 0.0 18.8
11-5 12.6% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.0 10.8
10-6 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.6
9-7 1.4% 5.8% 5.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-8 0.2% 0.2
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 2.3 7.4 7.9 2.3 0.1 79.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 12.4 4.1 53.9 40.2 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%