Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#145
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#159
Pace69.6#157
Improvement-0.9#239

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#230
First Shot-3.1#267
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#118
Layup/Dunks+1.5#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#316
Freethrows-0.1#180
Improvement-2.1#319

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#104
First Shot-0.2#177
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#14
Layups/Dunks-1.7#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement+1.2#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 16.2% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 72.9% 79.7% 55.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.8% 83.2% 60.2%
Conference Champion 17.4% 21.2% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.6% 6.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round14.2% 16.2% 9.2%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 71.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 77 - 10
Quad 410 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 139   UTEP W 89-60 59%     1 - 0 +27.3 +9.0 +15.6
  Nov 14, 2024 275   @ North Dakota L 71-77 64%     1 - 1 -9.3 -6.7 -2.5
  Nov 22, 2024 133   @ Murray St. W 77-75 35%     2 - 1 +6.6 +9.2 -2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 341   West Georgia W 77-74 86%     3 - 1 -8.3 -3.0 -5.4
  Nov 27, 2024 118   @ Samford L 76-84 30%     3 - 2 -2.1 -5.0 +3.6
  Nov 28, 2024 114   North Dakota St. L 63-83 41%     3 - 3 -17.1 -1.3 -19.3
  Dec 03, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 63-77 23%     3 - 4 -5.6 -10.1 +5.2
  Dec 07, 2024 135   @ James Madison L 61-78 35%     3 - 5 -12.5 -5.6 -8.3
  Dec 11, 2024 275   North Dakota W 80-57 82%     4 - 5 +13.7 +4.4 +10.6
  Dec 14, 2024 152   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 40%     4 - 6 -0.8 -6.0 +5.0
  Dec 18, 2024 250   @ Idaho St. W 70-56 60%     5 - 6 +12.1 -2.7 +14.5
  Dec 21, 2024 210   @ Weber St. W 64-62 50%     6 - 6 +2.5 +2.1 +0.8
  Jan 04, 2025 212   Abilene Christian W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 09, 2025 107   Grand Canyon L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 158   California Baptist W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 16, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 76-66 83%    
  Jan 23, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 143   @ Seattle L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 107   @ Grand Canyon L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 06, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 285   Tarleton St. W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 228   @ Southern Utah W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 143   Seattle W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 228   Southern Utah W 76-69 74%    
  Mar 06, 2025 212   @ Abilene Christian W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 285   @ Tarleton St. W 68-64 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.6 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 17.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.6 7.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.9 7.3 2.5 0.3 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.2 6.9 2.0 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.9 1.5 0.1 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 1.0 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.8 6.8 10.2 13.8 15.6 15.7 13.2 9.6 5.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-2 97.3% 2.4    2.2 0.2 0.0
13-3 85.1% 4.8    3.6 1.2 0.0
12-4 58.4% 5.6    2.8 2.4 0.4 0.0
11-5 23.5% 3.1    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.4% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 10.1 5.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.7% 46.1% 46.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-2 2.4% 38.5% 38.5% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.5
13-3 5.7% 35.6% 35.6% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.6
12-4 9.6% 30.4% 30.4% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 6.6
11-5 13.2% 23.5% 23.5% 13.8 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 10.1
10-6 15.7% 14.9% 14.9% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 13.3
9-7 15.6% 8.8% 8.8% 14.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 14.2
8-8 13.8% 4.6% 4.6% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 13.2
7-9 10.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 9.9
6-10 6.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.6
5-11 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.7
4-12 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-13 0.7% 0.7
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 13.7 0.1 1.2 4.8 5.7 2.3 0.4 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 42.3 53.8 3.8