Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.9 95
Results Rating +4.6 98
Pace 71.2 109
Improvement -0.4 200

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 133 B- B+ F+ D+ A-
Defense B 60 B- C+ A- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% 1 B- 61% 103 +8.5 8
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 253 D+ 35% 273 -3.0 323
Three Pointers 36% 287 C 34% 177 -2.6 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 15 C+ +1.0 131
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 89
Second Chance B+ 37.5% 20 C+ 1.06 127 B+ 0.40 41
Turnovers F+ 20.6% 347
Freethrows C- 0.29 230 D 69% 300 D+ 0.20 263
Total Offense C+ +1.3 133

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 64% 12 C+ 10.0% 123
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 49% 5 B 3.0% 50
Three Pointers B+ 93% 19 D 1.5% 321
Total A 70% 5 C- 6.0% 227

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 112 B 53% 66 -0.4 161
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 142 C 39% 206 +0.5 228
Three Pointers 37% 288 C+ 33% 144 -2.3 83
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 180 B- -2.2 93
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 106
Second Chance C 30.2% 173 C+ 1.00 128 C+ 0.30 149
Turnovers A- 20.8% 17
Freethrows D+ 0.33 266 C 72% 190 D+ 0.24 269
Total Defense B +4.5 60

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 277 B+ 16.0% 36
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 212 B- 6.9% 69
Three Pointers D+ 88% 296 B 1.7% 55
Total C- 58% 233 A- 8.7% 18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 112 17.1 154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 115 0.16 123
Improvement -1.8 #273 +1.4 #103

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 106 92 75
Results Rating Rank 121 99 67
Conference Record 12 - 6 13 - 5 14 - 4
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 13 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56% 57% 50%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 91% 94% 68%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round56% 57% 50%
Second Round7% 7% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 311 - 312 - 6
Quad 410 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 64 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 29% -12  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 C +1 C A F F -12 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 132 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 54% +4  87% 0 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +2 B+ B- D B- +2 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 120 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 72% +6  93% 1 - 2 B- +7 B+ +8 A A- B C -1 A D- D
 Tue, Nov 25 210 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 79% +10  98% 2 - 2 A +20 D+ -2 C- A+ F A+ +23 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 190 Samford W 89 - 45 77% +23  89% 3 - 2 A+ +42 B +7 A- B+ F A+ +33 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 45 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 21% -6  11% 3 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 B+ B F B- +2 B D- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 166 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 62% +10  90% 4 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +8 A+ C+ F B+ +5 B+ F+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 252 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 90% -1  56% 5 - 3 C- -4 D- -8 C- C- F B +4 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 141 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 68% +12  95% 6 - 3 A- +16 D- -8 D- C F A+ +24 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 211 Weber St. W 90 - 74 86% +9  97% 7 - 3 B +10 A+ +15 A+ A+ F+ D+ -4 B+ F D
 Mon, Dec 29 138 California Baptist W 73 - 66 77% +0  37% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 A F A- B+ +6 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 230 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 74% +2  66% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +5 A- +11 B+ C+ C+ D -6 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 245 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 76% -5  21% 9 - 4 2 - 1 F -18 D -4 C B+ F F -14 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 278 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 92% +10  98% 10 - 4 3 - 1 B- +7 B- +5 B+ A- F C+ +2 C+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 189 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 84% +7  77% 11 - 4 4 - 1 B+ +11 B- +5 C+ A D- B +4 B- F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 180 Texas Arlington W 86 - 74 83% +14  99% 12 - 4 5 - 1 B- +8 A +13 B A+ C+ D -5 B+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 21 278 @Southern Utah L 70 - 84 81% -4  15% 12 - 5 5 - 2 F+ -18 F+ -8 F B- C- F+ -9 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 138 @California Baptist L 71 - 78 OT 56% -0  37% 12 - 6 5 - 3 C- -3 D -5 D- C- F+ B- +3 D- B+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 230 @Tarleton St. W 83 - 55 74% +4  51% 13 - 6 6 - 3 A+ +27 B+ +7 B+ A+ F A+ +19 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 245 Abilene Christian W 68 - 55 89% +7  71% 14 - 6 7 - 3 B- +6 D- -6 F+ A+ F A+ +12 D A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 180 Texas Arlington W 81 - 60 83% +9  80% 15 - 6 8 - 3 A- +17 A+ +22 A+ A+ C C- -2 F A A
 Thu, Feb 12 189 @Utah Tech L 77 - 81 67% -10  0% 15 - 7 8 - 4 C- -3 B- +4 A+ F F D- -7 F+ F B-
 Thu, Feb 19 138 California Baptist W 65 - 46 77% +10  98% 16 - 7 9 - 4 A- +17 D+ -4 C B- F+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 180 @Texas Arlington W 66 - 54 66% -0  40% 17 - 7 10 - 4 B+ +14 C- -2 F A D+ A+ +16 B+ A+ A
 Thu, Feb 26 230 Tarleton St. W 80 - 67 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 Abilene Christian W 77 - 64 90%
 Thu, Mar 5 278 @Southern Utah W 82 - 73 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 189 @Utah Tech W 76 - 71 67%
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 5 +6 C+ +1 C C+ A- B +5 C D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ C C+ 51% 31% 36% A- B- B+ C+ B+ F+ C- D D+ B B C C+ B- 41% 22% 37% C B- C C+ C+ A- D+ C D+
1.11 61% 35% 34% +1 +2 1.08 37% 1.1 .40 21% .29 69% .20 1.02 53% 39% 33% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 21% .33 72% .21
Nov
8		 Boise St. C A B+ F C- 45% 22% 33% B+ C C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F F A- D F+ 51% 14% 35% D F+ D F F D- F C- F
1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32 1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41
Nov
15		 Fresno St. C+ C- D A- B 50% 14% 36% A- B+ D- A+ B- D A+ F A+ B- D F F F 45% 18% 36% D+ F A+ F B A+ F A F+
1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27 1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28
Nov
19		 UC Irvine B+ A- F C B+ 71% 10% 18% A+ A B A- A- B A+ F C C B B- A+ A 34% 32% 34% B+ A C+ F D- D D- F F
1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19 1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 South Dakota St. D+ D F B D+ 48% 14% 38% B+ C- A B+ A+ F F A F+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 16% 50% C A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D- D F+
1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17 0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25
Nov
26		 Samford B B D+ A B 64% 14% 21% A+ A- B+ B B+ F D B+ D+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20 0.61 22% 27% 25% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09
Dec
3		 San Diego St. C A- F B+ B 31% 16% 53% B- B+ B B- B F C- F+ D+ B- D+ A- C- B 35% 35% 29% B+ B D D+ D- B- F C- F
0.94 64% 0% 38% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 27% .29 67% .20 1.10 65% 29% 36% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 19% .49 79% .38
Dec
6		 Bowling Green B+ A+ A+ B A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ B+ D- C+ F D- D- D- B+ F A- A+ B+ 43% 19% 39% B B+ D+ F F+ B- D+ A C
1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18 0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22
Dec
10		 Idaho St. D- A+ C F D+ 44% 16% 40% B- C- A+ F C- F C B+ B- B A+ F D- B- 45% 10% 45% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ B- C B C+
1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27 1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22
Dec
13		 UC Santa Barbara D- F A+ C- F 45% 11% 45% A- D- A- F C F C- B+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 57% 22% 22% D A+ C+ C C+ A+ B- F C-
1.01 43% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.8 .30 22% .34 78% .27 0.78 35% 30% 20% -20 +1 0.65 31% 1.0 .31 28% .29 86% .25
Dec
17		 Weber St. A+ B A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 45% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C B C+ D+ B- A+ C+ A 60% 16% 24% D- B+ F C- F D D+ B+ C-
1.37 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 50% 1.4 .69 20% .32 76% .25 1.13 53% 13% 33% -7 +2 0.92 42% 1.0 .42 14% .37 67% .25
Dec
29		 California Baptist C- A C+ D+ A 57% 19% 24% A- A F F F A- C F F B+ F F B F 53% 23% 25% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.04 68% 40% 31% +5 +2 1.15 9% 0.7 .06 11% .32 45% .14 0.94 67% 67% 30% +9 +1 1.23 28% 0.0 .00 33% .42 85% .36
Jan
1		 Tarleton St. A- B D- B B- 59% 7% 35% A+ B+ B D C+ C+ A+ B- A+ D A- F B+ B 47% 22% 31% D- C+ B+ F D+ F F F F
1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46 1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42
Jan
3		 Abilene Christian D C D B C- 49% 7% 44% B+ C B- A- B+ F F B- F F C- F F F 51% 29% 20% C- F B- C C+ F A+ F B
0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25 1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20
Jan
8		 Southern Utah B- A- F A+ B+ 52% 19% 30% B B+ A+ C- A- F C+ F C- C+ A+ A+ F C+ 40% 19% 42% C- C+ B F C- C F+ A+ C-
1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17 0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19
Jan
10		 Utah Tech B- C- A+ F+ C 54% 13% 33% B+ C+ C- A+ A D- A+ A+ A+ B B+ C- C- B 49% 21% 30% C- B- C F F+ A+ F F F
1.20 59% 57% 28% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.5 .47 18% .43 89% .38 0.99 52% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 25% .35 90% .31
Jan
17		 Texas Arlington A B C+ C- B+ 44% 30% 26% C B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B- D C+ A- A+ B+ 41% 22% 37% B- B+ F F F C+ F D- F
1.24 64% 40% 31% +2 -1 1.04 45% 1.6 .73 16% .48 61% .29 1.07 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.83 42% 1.4 .58 22% .48 77% .37
Jan
21		 Southern Utah F+ F+ F F F 48% 13% 39% A- F B C- B- C- A- F C+ F+ C A- F F 36% 23% 40% B- F F D- F A F F F
0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20 1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30
Jan
24		 California Baptist D D+ A+ F F 58% 11% 30% A+ D- B F C- F+ A+ C- A+ B- C+ A- F F+ 50% 22% 28% C D- A C B+ A F C+ F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +3 0.83 30% 0.7 .21 18% .52 72% .37 1.03 52% 30% 46% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 22% .53 71% .37
Jan
29		 Tarleton St. B+ C D+ A+ B+ 51% 18% 31% B B+ A A+ A+ F F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 37% 30% 33% B- A+ C- B C+ A+ F A- F
1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29 0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38
Feb
5		 Abilene Christian D- C+ F F F 62% 11% 28% A F+ A- A A+ F C- F F A+ A+ A+ F D- 34% 27% 39% B D B- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+
0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23 0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas Arlington A+ F A+ A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% A- A+ A+ B A+ C A A+ A+ C- C F A+ F 55% 24% 21% C- F C- A+ A A F B F
1.38 47% 60% 52% +13 +1 1.29 42% 1.2 .50 17% .45 91% .41 1.02 56% 88% 14% +4 +1 1.12 36% 0.6 .23 25% .64 68% .43
Feb
12		 Utah Tech B- A+ A+ D A+ 53% 12% 35% B+ A+ B F F F C+ F C- D- C+ F F F 47% 20% 33% D+ F+ F F F B- D- A C-
1.14 77% 50% 29% +9 +2 1.24 38% 0.5 .19 22% .30 63% .19 1.20 58% 60% 41% +8 +1 1.20 37% 1.3 .47 18% .29 63% .18
Feb
19		 California Baptist D+ C+ F D+ C 50% 23% 27% B- C A+ F B- F+ C- D D+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 17% 33% D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A-
0.99 58% 27% 31% -4 +1 0.96 40% 0.7 .29 18% .30 69% .21 0.70 39% 25% 27% -15 +1 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 31% .20 78% .15
Feb
21		 Texas Arlington C- F+ F F F 60% 18% 22% A+ F A+ F A D+ B F D+ A+ B+ A- A B+ 46% 22% 33% C+ B+ B A+ A+ A F A+ F
0.99 48% 25% 10% -16 +2 0.73 51% 0.9 .47 18% .40 59% .24 0.81 48% 30% 27% -10 0 0.83 31% 0.5 .14 26% .54 59% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 6.4 40.1 44.3 90.9 1st
2nd 0.7 5.6 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 1.4 2.8 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.1 2.1 13.4 40.1 44.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 44.3    44.3
13-5 100.0% 40.1    21.8 15.4 2.9
12-6 47.8% 6.4    1.0 2.9 2.4
11-7 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 90.9% 90.9 67.1 18.4 5.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 44.3% 60.5% 60.5% 12.1 1.9 19.9 4.9 0.1 17.5
13-5 40.1% 55.8% 55.8% 12.6 0.1 10.5 10.8 1.0 0.0 17.7
12-6 13.4% 47.2% 47.2% 12.8 0.0 2.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 7.1
11-7 2.1% 36.2% 36.2% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4
10-8 0.1% 43.8% 43.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 56.3% 56.3% 0.0% 12.4 43.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 26.8% 100.0% 12.1 7.0 74.2 18.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.3%