Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#114
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#93
Pace69.8#126
Improvement+5.0#15

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#189
First Shot-1.6#224
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#105
Layup/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#327
Freethrows+0.0#176
Improvement+2.7#60

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#77
First Shot+1.2#135
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#18
Layups/Dunks-1.4#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#98
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement+2.3#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.4% 46.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.4% 46.6% 0.0%
Second Round2.6% 4.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 39 - 29 - 7
Quad 414 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 159   UTEP W 89-60 72%     1 - 0 +26.5 +7.7 +16.1
  Nov 14, 2024 264   @ North Dakota L 71-77 73%     1 - 1 -8.9 -7.4 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 145   @ Murray St. W 77-75 49%     2 - 1 +5.7 +9.6 -3.9
  Nov 26, 2024 348   West Georgia W 77-74 93%     3 - 1 -9.7 -3.7 -6.1
  Nov 27, 2024 124   @ Samford L 76-84 44%     3 - 2 -3.0 -3.5 +1.2
  Nov 28, 2024 142   North Dakota St. L 63-83 59%     3 - 3 -18.9 -3.0 -19.4
  Dec 03, 2024 81   @ Stanford L 63-77 28%     3 - 4 -4.4 -8.1 +4.4
  Dec 07, 2024 166   @ James Madison L 61-78 54%     3 - 5 -14.6 -8.1 -7.9
  Dec 11, 2024 264   North Dakota W 80-57 86%     4 - 5 +14.6 +3.9 +11.9
  Dec 14, 2024 122   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 43%     4 - 6 +1.1 -2.2 +3.2
  Dec 18, 2024 215   @ Idaho St. W 70-56 64%     5 - 6 +13.8 -5.1 +18.6
  Dec 21, 2024 284   @ Weber St. W 64-62 77%     6 - 6 -2.4 +1.0 -3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 64-53 80%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +5.4 -9.4 +14.4
  Jan 09, 2025 90   Grand Canyon W 72-64 52%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +11.0 +3.3 +7.8
  Jan 11, 2025 163   California Baptist W 75-69 73%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +3.1 -0.1 +3.1
  Jan 16, 2025 226   @ Texas Arlington W 85-83 OT 65%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +1.3 +1.7 -0.6
  Jan 18, 2025 293   Utah Tech W 96-80 90%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +5.6 +16.9 -11.4
  Jan 23, 2025 163   @ California Baptist W 74-69 53%     12 - 6 6 - 0 +7.6 +5.9 +1.9
  Jan 25, 2025 146   @ Seattle W 70-66 49%     13 - 6 7 - 0 +7.7 +4.8 +3.1
  Feb 01, 2025 90   @ Grand Canyon L 57-75 31%     13 - 7 7 - 1 -9.5 -10.2 +1.0
  Feb 06, 2025 226   Texas Arlington W 94-73 82%     14 - 7 8 - 1 +14.8 +17.1 -2.1
  Feb 08, 2025 275   Tarleton St. W 81-56 88%     15 - 7 9 - 1 +15.9 +13.2 +3.9
  Feb 15, 2025 304   @ Southern Utah W 70-68 80%     16 - 7 10 - 1 -3.5 +0.4 -3.8
  Feb 20, 2025 293   @ Utah Tech W 79-77 OT 78%     17 - 7 11 - 1 -2.9 +0.2 -3.1
  Feb 22, 2025 146   Seattle W 61-55 69%     18 - 7 12 - 1 +4.2 +1.1 +4.2
  Mar 01, 2025 304   Southern Utah W 100-59 90%     19 - 7 13 - 1 +30.0 +17.9 +9.6
  Mar 06, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian W 73-60 63%     20 - 7 14 - 1 +12.9 +0.8 +11.4
  Mar 08, 2025 275   @ Tarleton St. W 71-66 75%     21 - 7 15 - 1 +1.4 +1.8 -0.4
  Mar 12, 2025 293   Utah Tech W 74-57 85%     22 - 7 +9.4 -3.3 +12.7
Projected Record 22 - 7 15 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 100.0% 30.4% 30.4% 13.2 3.3 17.3 9.6 0.1 69.7
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 30.4% 30.4% 0.0% 13.2 3.3 17.3 9.6 0.1 69.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 30.4% 100.0% 13.2 10.9 57.1 31.6 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 34.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 34.9%