Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.0 #101
Expected Predictive Rating +6.1 #84
Pace 71.8 #105
Improvement -2.3 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #129 B+ B+ F C- A
Defense #75 B- B- B C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.28 #68 +10.3 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #319 0.62 #330 -3.5 #335
Three Pointers 36% #295 1.05 #127 -2.0 #259
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #60 +4.8 #59
Freethrows 17.0 #211 68% #297 11.6 #237
Second Chance 34.9% #71 1.15 #72 0.40 #46
Turnovers 20.8% #356
Total Offense +1.2 #129

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.06 #71 +0.1 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.84 #301 -1.1 #267
Three Pointers 37% #282 0.90 #57 +4.0 #47
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #88 +3.0 #87
Freethrows 16.8 #166 74% #253 12.5 #174
Second Chance 29.1% #122 1.00 #124 0.29 #113
Turnovers 18.8% #64
Total Defense +3.8 #75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.6% #15 0.4% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #98 -6.2% #73
Possession Length 16.5 #109 17.1 #148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #79 0.15 #101
Improvement -1.8 #289 -0.5 #222

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.9% 47.8% 41.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 12.9
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.4% 96.8%
Conference Champion 76.2% 79.2% 57.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round46.9% 47.8% 41.4%
Second Round5.7% 6.0% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 310 - 411 - 7
Quad 411 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 63 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 25%  -12  0 - 1 -12 +7 B- A+ F -18 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 157 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 58%  +4  0 - 2 +2 +4 B B+ D -2 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 121 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 71%  +6  1 - 2 +6 +9 A+ A B -3 A D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 173 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 72%  +10  2 - 2 +22 +1 C A+ F +21 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 26 229 Samford W 89 - 45 80%  +23  3 - 2 +40 +9 A+ B F +30 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 52 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 21%  -6  3 - 3 +2 -0 B C+ F +3 A- D C+
 Sat, Dec 6 132 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 51%  +10  4 - 3 +16 +10 A+ C+ F +6 A+ D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 10 187 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 83%  -1  5 - 3 -1 -3 C B+ F +2 B A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 181 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 73%  +12  6 - 3 +14 -6 F C- F +20 A+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 212 Weber St. W 90 - 74 85%  +9  7 - 3 +10 +19 A+ A+ F -8 A- F D
 Mon, Dec 29 147 California Baptist W 73 - 66 76%  +0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +5 -1 A+ F A+ +6 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 172 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 62%  +2  9 - 3 2 - 0 +8 +12 B C C -4 B+ B F
 Sat, Jan 3 202 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 67%  -5  9 - 4 2 - 1 -16 -2 C A- F -14 F B F
 Thu, Jan 8 329 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 95%  +10  10 - 4 3 - 1 +3 +7 B- A- F -4 D+ D C
 Sat, Jan 10 227 Utah Tech W 80 - 68 86% 
 Sat, Jan 17 156 Texas Arlington W 73 - 65 78% 
 Wed, Jan 21 329 @Southern Utah W 82 - 69 88% 
 Sat, Jan 24 147 @California Baptist W 71 - 70 54% 
 Thu, Jan 29 172 @Tarleton St. W 78 - 75 61% 
 Thu, Feb 5 202 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 83% 
 Sat, Feb 7 156 Texas Arlington W 73 - 65 78% 
 Thu, Feb 12 227 @Utah Tech W 77 - 71 70% 
 Thu, Feb 19 147 California Baptist W 74 - 67 75% 
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @Texas Arlington W 70 - 68 57% 
 Thu, Feb 26 172 Tarleton St. W 81 - 72 80% 
 Sat, Feb 28 202 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 83% 
 Thu, Mar 5 329 @Southern Utah W 82 - 69 87% 
 Sat, Mar 7 227 @Utah Tech W 77 - 71 70% 
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 5 +5 +1 B+ B+ F +4 B- B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 6.9 15.6 20.0 17.7 11.1 3.7 76.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.4 5.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.1 8.1 13.3 18.6 20.5 17.7 11.1 3.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.7
16-2 100.0% 11.1    11.1
15-3 99.8% 17.7    17.5 0.2
14-4 97.3% 20.0    18.2 1.8
13-5 83.8% 15.6    10.6 4.8 0.3
12-6 51.6% 6.9    2.5 3.3 1.0 0.1
11-7 14.5% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 76.2% 76.2 63.6 10.6 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.7% 65.0% 65.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.3
16-2 11.1% 59.2% 59.2% 12.0 1.0 4.5 1.1 0.0 4.5
15-3 17.7% 57.2% 57.2% 12.4 0.3 5.6 3.9 0.3 7.6
14-4 20.5% 49.5% 49.5% 12.7 0.1 3.8 5.5 0.8 0.0 10.4
13-5 18.6% 46.2% 46.2% 12.9 0.0 2.0 5.1 1.4 0.0 10.0
12-6 13.3% 39.8% 39.8% 13.2 0.7 3.0 1.6 0.1 8.0
11-7 8.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 5.8
10-8 4.1% 22.9% 22.9% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.2
9-9 1.9% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
8-10 0.7% 17.1% 17.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 16.7% 16.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 46.9% 46.9% 0.0% 12.6 53.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 11.2 0.2 1.4 3.7 65.8 27.8 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%