California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#176
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#220
Pace64.2#305
Improvement+0.4#154

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#130
First Shot+1.1#147
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#156
Layup/Dunks+6.6#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#305
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement-1.0#263

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#248
First Shot-0.8#192
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#305
Layups/Dunks-0.7#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
Freethrows+1.8#67
Improvement+1.4#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 10.7% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 53.0% 64.2% 39.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 68.3% 58.6%
Conference Champion 9.9% 11.4% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 4.6% 7.4%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round9.2% 10.6% 7.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 34 - 64 - 12
Quad 411 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 304   Incarnate Word W 83-78 82%     1 - 0 -5.7 +5.5 -11.1
  Nov 09, 2024 162   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 59%     2 - 0 +0.7 +8.0 -7.5
  Nov 12, 2024 171   UC Riverside L 69-70 61%     2 - 1 -4.7 -2.4 -2.3
  Nov 15, 2024 340   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 89%     3 - 1 -1.4 +15.6 -16.4
  Nov 20, 2024 197   Northern Colorado L 68-79 64%     3 - 2 -15.6 -11.2 -4.0
  Nov 23, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 79-68 76%     4 - 2 +2.9 +3.7 -0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 49   SMU L 77-79 15%     4 - 3 +8.3 +14.9 -6.8
  Nov 27, 2024 257   Fresno St. W 86-81 2OT 66%     5 - 3 -0.2 -1.6 +0.5
  Dec 01, 2024 84   @ Central Florida L 59-74 16%     5 - 4 -5.3 -7.8 +2.5
  Dec 11, 2024 41   @ San Diego St. L 75-81 9%     5 - 5 +7.9 +20.8 -13.8
  Dec 16, 2024 131   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-75 29%     5 - 6 -6.3 -6.6 +0.5
  Dec 21, 2024 257   @ Fresno St. W 74-73 55%    
  Dec 28, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 75-65 82%    
  Dec 30, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 170   Seattle W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 148   @ Utah Valley L 68-72 34%    
  Jan 16, 2025 286   @ Tarleton St. W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ Abilene Christian L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 148   Utah Valley W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 30, 2025 207   Abilene Christian W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 75-79 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 170   @ Seattle L 70-73 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 286   Tarleton St. W 72-63 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 145   Texas Arlington W 78-76 56%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.7 5.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 6.0 6.3 1.8 0.2 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.0 6.4 1.6 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.5 1.5 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.7 1.6 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.5 1.4 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.5 0.9 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.4 10.4 13.4 15.4 15.2 13.2 9.7 6.0 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-2 96.3% 1.0    1.0 0.1
13-3 82.3% 2.5    1.8 0.6 0.0
12-4 54.2% 3.2    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
11-5 22.3% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 42.9% 42.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 38.2% 38.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-3 3.0% 31.0% 31.0% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.1
12-4 6.0% 26.7% 26.7% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.4
11-5 9.7% 22.3% 22.3% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 7.5
10-6 13.2% 13.3% 13.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 11.4
9-7 15.2% 7.8% 7.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 14.0
8-8 15.4% 4.4% 4.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 14.7
7-9 13.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 13.1
6-10 10.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.2
5-11 6.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.3
4-12 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-13 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 3.1 0.9 90.6 0.0%