Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#330
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#191
Pace64.7#289
Improvement-2.5#318

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#251
First Shot-1.4#212
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#272
Layup/Dunks-7.1#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#43
Freethrows-1.8#283
Improvement-3.0#353

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#354
First Shot-3.6#298
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#352
Layups/Dunks-7.1#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#213
Freethrows+2.4#47
Improvement+0.5#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 11.9% 23.8% 8.9%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 28.9% 19.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 35.4% 27.1% 37.4%
First Four1.8% 2.4% 1.6%
First Round1.3% 2.2% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 42 - 7
Quad 410 - 1211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 2%     0 - 1 -8.9 -4.3 -5.7
  Nov 08, 2024 98   @ Rhode Island L 77-91 5%     0 - 2 -5.6 +4.7 -9.6
  Nov 15, 2024 277   Sacred Heart W 82-75 35%     1 - 2 +0.9 +15.4 -13.6
  Nov 16, 2024 159   @ Brown W 73-65 12%     2 - 2 +10.9 +6.4 +5.1
  Nov 17, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 74-72 61%     3 - 2 -10.9 +6.2 -16.9
  Nov 24, 2024 213   @ Maine L 55-80 16%     3 - 3 -24.5 -13.9 -11.3
  Nov 29, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 41-67 5%     3 - 4 -17.2 -15.2 -7.6
  Dec 04, 2024 232   Harvard W 68-67 38%     4 - 4 -5.8 -2.5 -3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 222   Central Connecticut St. L 56-69 35%     4 - 5 -19.2 -9.6 -11.2
  Dec 17, 2024 238   @ Quinnipiac L 70-79 20%    
  Dec 20, 2024 283   @ Siena L 64-70 27%    
  Jan 02, 2025 319   Loyola Maryland W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 05, 2025 237   @ American L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 08, 2025 301   Navy W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 239   @ Lafayette L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 15, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 237   American L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 22, 2025 305   Army W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 319   @ Loyola Maryland L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 27, 2025 252   @ Boston University L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   Lehigh L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 05, 2025 305   @ Army L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 252   Boston University L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 224   Colgate L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 19, 2025 239   Lafayette L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 23, 2025 301   @ Navy L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 26, 2025 224   @ Colgate L 65-75 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 260   Bucknell L 68-70 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.0 1.0 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.1 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 3.4 0.3 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.3 4.8 0.6 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 7.2 5.0 1.0 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 4.3 6.7 6.8 3.9 0.9 0.0 24.8 10th
Total 0.4 1.9 4.5 8.0 11.2 13.8 14.4 13.4 11.1 8.6 5.7 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 85.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 60.4% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 24.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 20.8% 20.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 20.9% 20.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 16.6% 16.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 13.5% 13.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8
12-6 2.0% 11.0% 11.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.7
11-7 3.4% 8.9% 8.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1
10-8 5.7% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.4
9-9 8.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.3
8-10 11.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 10.8
7-11 13.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.2
6-12 14.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.2
5-13 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.8
4-14 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
3-15 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
2-16 4.5% 4.5
1-17 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%