NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#310
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#324
Pace66.7#218
Improvement-1.3#254

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#239
First Shot-3.8#286
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#101
Layup/Dunks-0.6#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#259
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement-0.1#191

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#341
First Shot-4.1#307
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#332
Layups/Dunks-5.1#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#95
Freethrows-1.9#305
Improvement-1.2#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 5.9% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 50.2% 13.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.4% 5.8% 4.1%
First Round2.6% 3.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Away) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 48 - 1210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 75   @ George Mason L 58-75 5%     0 - 1 -6.9 -3.5 -3.8
  Nov 08, 2024 257   Gardner-Webb L 82-88 47%     0 - 2 -13.8 +0.8 -14.4
  Nov 12, 2024 96   @ High Point L 60-76 7%     0 - 3 -8.4 -4.4 -6.6
  Nov 15, 2024 248   Georgia Southern L 75-80 36%     0 - 4 -9.8 -6.6 -2.8
  Nov 16, 2024 216   William & Mary W 78-76 29%     1 - 4 -1.0 +0.4 -1.4
  Nov 17, 2024 196   @ Winthrop L 75-77 19%     1 - 5 -1.5 +1.8 -3.4
  Nov 22, 2024 252   @ Georgia St. L 79-93 28%     1 - 6 -16.5 +8.5 -26.1
  Dec 05, 2024 177   Radford L 67-70 31%     1 - 7 -6.5 -9.9 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 257   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-77 28%     2 - 7 -1.7 +1.3 -3.0
  Dec 10, 2024 41   @ West Virginia L 45-79 3%     2 - 8 -19.4 -12.2 -11.3
  Dec 14, 2024 200   @ Longwood W 77-70 20%     3 - 8 +7.4 +4.5 +3.0
  Dec 20, 2024 200   Longwood L 67-82 35%     3 - 9 -19.7 -7.6 -12.5
  Dec 28, 2024 316   @ N.C. A&T L 72-85 42%     3 - 10 -19.6 +0.7 -21.0
  Jan 04, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. L 61-63 76%     3 - 11 0 - 1 -17.9 -15.5 -2.3
  Jan 07, 2025 330   @ Morgan St. L 98-102 2OT 47%     3 - 12 0 - 2 -11.9 -1.6 -9.4
  Jan 11, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-69 87%     4 - 12 1 - 2 -2.0 +8.8 -10.1
  Jan 13, 2025 303   Delaware St. W 75-72 58%     5 - 12 2 - 2 -7.6 +0.4 -7.9
  Jan 25, 2025 210   South Carolina St. W 82-77 37%     6 - 12 3 - 2 -0.1 +4.0 -4.4
  Feb 03, 2025 181   @ Norfolk St. L 78-81 17%     6 - 13 3 - 3 -1.6 +13.2 -15.1
  Feb 08, 2025 305   @ Howard L 78-82 39%     6 - 14 3 - 4 -9.8 -2.6 -7.2
  Feb 15, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 71-59 87%     7 - 14 4 - 4 -9.0 -5.0 -3.6
  Feb 17, 2025 330   Morgan St. L 78-92 66%     7 - 15 4 - 5 -27.0 -4.0 -23.1
  Feb 22, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 24, 2025 303   @ Delaware St. L 75-78 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 305   Howard W 79-77 60%    
  Mar 03, 2025 181   Norfolk St. L 71-76 35%    
  Mar 06, 2025 210   @ South Carolina St. L 68-77 19%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.4 1.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.4 0.4 6.3 3rd
4th 0.2 7.6 4.4 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.5 8.4 15.4 0.5 24.8 5th
6th 3.9 19.4 25.9 5.2 54.3 6th
7th 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 8th
Total 4.5 20.2 34.5 28.7 10.7 1.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 1.4% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.2 1.2
8-6 10.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.9 9.8
7-7 28.7% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.9 26.9
6-8 34.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 1.7 32.8
5-9 20.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.6 19.7
4-10 4.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 4.3
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 16.0 5.4 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 3.0%