New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#147
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#51
Pace65.5#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 9.6% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.4
.500 or above 52.6% 59.7% 31.8%
.500 or above in Conference 56.6% 61.0% 43.8%
Conference Champion 9.1% 10.6% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 6.6% 12.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round8.3% 9.5% 4.8%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 214 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 301   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 69%     1 - 0 +7.9 +2.1 +6.0
  Nov 14, 2024 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74-67 75%    
  Nov 20, 2024 58   @ Dayton L 63-74 15%    
  Nov 23, 2024 94   @ UNLV L 65-72 25%    
  Nov 29, 2024 229   Pepperdine W 73-69 65%    
  Dec 04, 2024 237   Abilene Christian W 73-65 75%    
  Dec 07, 2024 56   @ New Mexico L 73-84 16%    
  Dec 12, 2024 23   @ Texas L 62-77 9%    
  Dec 16, 2024 214   Southern Utah W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 02, 2025 123   Sam Houston St. W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 92   Louisiana Tech L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 194   @ UTEP L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 16, 2025 267   @ Florida International W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 104   @ Liberty L 62-69 28%    
  Jan 23, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 81-76 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 210   Jacksonville St. W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 30, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 118   @ Western Kentucky L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 194   UTEP W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 104   Liberty L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 267   Florida International W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 20, 2025 210   @ Jacksonville St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee W 67-65 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 118   Western Kentucky W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 92   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-72 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 123   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-75 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.6 1.5 0.2 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 4.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.0 5.9 8.4 9.6 11.2 11.5 11.4 10.0 8.6 6.5 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 84.6% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 59.7% 2.5    1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 29.9% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0
12-6 7.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.5 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 75.0% 60.0% 15.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.5%
17-1 0.5% 64.6% 50.7% 13.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 28.2%
16-2 1.3% 46.8% 38.4% 8.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 13.7%
15-3 2.6% 35.6% 32.6% 3.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 4.6%
14-4 4.2% 25.9% 24.7% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.7%
13-5 6.5% 18.1% 17.9% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.2%
12-6 8.6% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.3 0.0%
11-7 10.0% 10.7% 10.7% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.9
10-8 11.4% 6.7% 6.7% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 10.7
9-9 11.5% 5.0% 5.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.9
8-10 11.2% 3.4% 3.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.8
7-11 9.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.5
6-12 8.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
5-13 5.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-14 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.4% 8.1% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 91.6 0.4%