New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#199
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#202
Pace66.5#252
Improvement-0.7#237

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#224
First Shot-4.5#308
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#39
Layup/Dunks-5.8#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#207
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-0.6#232

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#169
First Shot+2.8#95
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#338
Layups/Dunks+6.8#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
Freethrows-4.2#357
Improvement-0.1#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 12.4% 19.2% 6.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.2% 37.5% 16.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 22.5% 13.9% 30.1%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round2.3% 3.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 21 - 52 - 8
Quad 34 - 76 - 14
Quad 45 - 311 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 298   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 60%     1 - 0 +7.7 +1.5 +6.5
  Nov 14, 2024 190   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 60%     2 - 0 -3.4 +2.8 -6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 38   @ Dayton L 53-74 7%     2 - 1 -6.2 -6.8 -2.7
  Nov 23, 2024 113   @ UNLV L 65-72 22%     2 - 2 -0.5 -1.2 +0.3
  Nov 29, 2024 226   Pepperdine L 70-82 57%     2 - 3 -15.5 -8.2 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 265   Bowling Green L 60-61 65%     2 - 4 -6.7 -14.1 +7.3
  Dec 04, 2024 188   Abilene Christian L 70-78 60%     2 - 5 -12.3 -0.9 -11.9
  Dec 07, 2024 71   @ New Mexico W 89-83 OT 12%     3 - 5 +16.8 +11.4 +4.8
  Dec 12, 2024 33   @ Texas L 67-91 6%     3 - 6 -8.7 +2.8 -11.6
  Dec 16, 2024 210   Southern Utah W 72-69 64%     4 - 6 -2.4 -6.1 +3.6
  Jan 02, 2025 128   Sam Houston St. L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ UTEP L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 242   @ Florida International L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 60-72 14%    
  Jan 23, 2025 154   Kennesaw St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 173   Jacksonville St. W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 30, 2025 130   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 106   @ Western Kentucky L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   UTEP L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 77   Liberty L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 242   Florida International W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 173   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 154   @ Kennesaw St. L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 27, 2025 130   Middle Tennessee L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 106   Western Kentucky L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-73 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 128   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-76 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.7 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.9 7.1 4.2 0.5 0.0 16.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 6.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 17.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.4 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.2 9.5 12.5 14.4 14.3 12.7 10.1 7.2 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 90.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 76.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 39.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 36.0% 36.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 11.7% 11.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 23.2% 23.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.5% 10.5% 10.5% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
11-7 4.4% 6.8% 6.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.1
10-8 7.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.8
9-9 10.1% 4.0% 4.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.7
8-10 12.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.1 0.2 12.4
7-11 14.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 14.1
6-12 14.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.3
5-13 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.5
4-14 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
3-15 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%