Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#282
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#238
Pace69.7#158
Improvement-0.3#198

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#278
First Shot-1.3#209
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#305
Layup/Dunks-2.3#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#249
Freethrows+1.1#111
Improvement-0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#271
First Shot-3.0#281
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#185
Layups/Dunks-2.0#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows-3.7#350
Improvement-0.2#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 15.4% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 58.3% 65.8% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 81.0% 58.9%
Conference Champion 17.3% 21.1% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.9% 6.6%
First Four7.5% 8.2% 5.7%
First Round9.6% 11.2% 5.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 41 - 5
Quad 414 - 915 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 103   @ DePaul L 78-80 OT 9%     0 - 1 +6.0 +3.4 +2.7
  Nov 07, 2024 264   Bucknell L 69-75 OT 57%     0 - 2 -14.6 -7.6 -6.7
  Nov 11, 2024 190   @ Marshall L 63-77 21%     0 - 3 -12.3 -8.6 -3.6
  Nov 13, 2024 343   @ Bellarmine W 71-69 58%     1 - 3 -6.7 -7.4 +0.8
  Nov 16, 2024 144   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-93 17%     1 - 4 -15.5 +1.3 -17.2
  Nov 22, 2024 235   South Dakota W 92-83 51%     2 - 4 +1.9 +4.6 -3.2
  Nov 25, 2024 150   Indiana St. W 87-77 35%     3 - 4 +7.3 +1.9 +4.5
  Dec 07, 2024 168   @ Southern Illinois L 70-73 19%     3 - 5 -0.6 +5.4 -6.2
  Dec 19, 2024 316   Tennessee St. W 77-75 69%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -9.7 -6.6 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 324   Tennessee Martin W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 31, 2024 281   Morehead St. W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 02, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 09, 2025 289   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 16, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 72-66 72%    
  Jan 23, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 327   @ Eastern Illinois L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 28, 2025 281   @ Morehead St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 13, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 351   @ Lindenwood W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 327   Eastern Illinois W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 27, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 316   @ Tennessee St. L 75-76 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.8 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 17.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 5.2 4.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.5 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.4 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.2 0.9 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.4 0.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 1.3 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.4 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.9 9.5 11.8 12.8 12.9 12.0 9.5 7.3 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
17-3 96.8% 2.3    2.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 87.4% 3.9    3.2 0.7 0.0
15-5 66.5% 4.8    2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 36.5% 3.5    1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 12.0% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 10.9 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 57.1% 57.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.9% 49.5% 49.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5
17-3 2.3% 40.7% 40.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.4
16-4 4.5% 34.5% 34.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 2.9
15-5 7.3% 31.9% 31.9% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.0
14-6 9.5% 25.9% 25.9% 15.9 0.2 2.3 7.1
13-7 12.0% 21.2% 21.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 9.4
12-8 12.9% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5 11.4
11-9 12.8% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 12.0
10-10 11.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 11.4
9-11 9.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 9.3
8-12 6.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.8
7-13 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 10.9 86.6 0.0%