The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.7#355
Expected Predictive Rating-21.2#360
Pace63.6#305
Improvement-3.6#326

Offense
Total Offense-8.2#352
First Shot-10.2#360
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#64
Layup/Dunks-3.4#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#220
Freethrows-4.6#363
Improvement-0.7#223

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#328
First Shot-3.8#294
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#310
Layups/Dunks-2.3#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#146
Freethrows-0.6#233
Improvement-2.9#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 94.1% 82.7% 95.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 8.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 100 - 14
Quad 42 - 103 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 191   @ Boston College L 60-69 9%     0 - 1 -7.8 -12.1 +4.1
  Nov 11, 2024 330   Stetson W 74-52 48%     1 - 1 +8.8 -4.8 +14.4
  Nov 17, 2024 334   N.C. A&T L 73-82 49%     1 - 2 -22.4 -7.5 -14.9
  Nov 20, 2024 118   College of Charleston L 61-76 11%     1 - 3 -15.0 -9.5 -6.2
  Dec 12, 2024 198   Campbell L 58-86 19%     1 - 4 -32.3 -9.4 -25.4
  Dec 16, 2024 337   @ Central Arkansas L 71-73 32%     1 - 5 -10.8 -6.6 -4.2
  Dec 18, 2024 46   @ Vanderbilt L 53-105 1%     1 - 6 -38.5 -10.2 -31.8
  Jan 01, 2025 110   @ Samford L 56-86 4%     1 - 7 0 - 1 -23.9 -11.3 -14.9
  Jan 04, 2025 143   Chattanooga L 68-81 13%     1 - 8 0 - 2 -14.3 -2.7 -12.6
  Jan 08, 2025 163   Furman L 63-67 OT 15%     1 - 9 0 - 3 -6.4 -14.6 +8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 154   @ East Tennessee St. L 52-70 7%     1 - 10 0 - 4 -14.8 -12.5 -4.7
  Jan 15, 2025 147   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-70 6%     1 - 11 0 - 5 -9.4 -6.5 -4.7
  Jan 18, 2025 305   VMI L 70-75 39%     1 - 12 0 - 6 -15.7 -3.9 -12.1
  Jan 22, 2025 162   @ Wofford L 68-79 7%     1 - 13 0 - 7 -8.3 +1.9 -11.5
  Jan 25, 2025 349   Western Carolina L 78-80 OT 55%     1 - 14 0 - 8 -17.1 -3.3 -13.7
  Jan 29, 2025 222   @ Mercer L 46-80 12%     1 - 15 0 - 9 -34.7 -25.5 -9.6
  Feb 01, 2025 110   Samford L 65-80 9%    
  Feb 05, 2025 147   UNC Greensboro L 59-71 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 305   @ VMI L 65-73 22%    
  Feb 12, 2025 162   Wofford L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 349   @ Western Carolina L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 19, 2025 222   Mercer L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 143   @ Chattanooga L 61-78 5%    
  Feb 26, 2025 163   @ Furman L 59-75 6%    
  Mar 01, 2025 154   East Tennessee St. L 61-73 15%    
Projected Record 2 - 23 1 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 3.6 6.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 23.1 34.5 21.6 5.6 0.6 0.0 85.4 10th
Total 23.1 34.5 25.2 11.9 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 11.9% 11.9
2-16 25.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.2
1-17 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 34.5
0-18 23.1% 23.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 20.1%