The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.4#357
Expected Predictive Rating-23.0#363
Pace62.6#325
Improvement-2.1#281

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#342
First Shot-9.9#360
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#53
Layup/Dunks-3.2#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#213
Freethrows-4.6#363
Improvement+0.9#139

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#349
First Shot-4.9#320
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#320
Layups/Dunks-2.7#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#165
Freethrows-0.8#249
Improvement-3.0#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 30 - 110 - 15
Quad 41 - 101 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 167   @ Boston College L 60-69 7%     0 - 1 -6.6 -9.1 +2.2
  Nov 11, 2024 351   Stetson W 74-52 55%     1 - 1 +6.4 -5.5 +12.8
  Nov 17, 2024 326   N.C. A&T L 73-82 43%     1 - 2 -21.6 -5.1 -16.5
  Nov 20, 2024 142   College of Charleston L 61-76 12%     1 - 3 -16.7 -9.5 -7.9
  Dec 12, 2024 208   Campbell L 58-86 19%     1 - 4 -33.2 -10.3 -25.5
  Dec 16, 2024 346   @ Central Arkansas L 71-73 32%     1 - 5 -11.5 -7.7 -3.8
  Dec 18, 2024 42   @ Vanderbilt L 53-105 1%     1 - 6 -37.4 -11.3 -29.6
  Jan 01, 2025 113   @ Samford L 56-86 4%     1 - 7 0 - 1 -24.3 -11.5 -15.0
  Jan 04, 2025 115   Chattanooga L 68-81 9%     1 - 8 0 - 2 -12.7 -4.2 -9.4
  Jan 08, 2025 148   Furman L 63-67 OT 13%     1 - 9 0 - 3 -6.1 -14.2 +8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 52-70 6%     1 - 10 0 - 4 -14.5 -11.2 -5.6
  Jan 15, 2025 144   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-70 6%     1 - 11 0 - 5 -9.4 -6.3 -4.9
  Jan 18, 2025 308   VMI L 70-75 38%     1 - 12 0 - 6 -16.3 -3.4 -13.2
  Jan 22, 2025 143   @ Wofford L 68-79 6%     1 - 13 0 - 7 -7.3 +3.0 -11.6
  Jan 25, 2025 339   Western Carolina L 78-80 OT 50%     1 - 14 0 - 8 -16.4 -4.3 -12.1
  Jan 29, 2025 258   @ Mercer L 46-80 13%     1 - 15 0 - 9 -36.5 -25.4 -11.5
  Feb 01, 2025 113   Samford L 58-83 9%     1 - 16 0 - 10 -24.7 -13.3 -12.8
  Feb 05, 2025 144   UNC Greensboro L 61-76 12%     1 - 17 0 - 11 -16.8 -2.9 -16.4
  Feb 08, 2025 308   @ VMI L 70-82 21%     1 - 18 0 - 12 -17.9 -4.0 -14.0
  Feb 12, 2025 143   Wofford L 71-74 OT 12%     1 - 19 0 - 13 -4.7 +0.7 -5.7
  Feb 15, 2025 339   @ Western Carolina L 73-76 30%     1 - 20 0 - 14 -12.0 -1.6 -10.5
  Feb 19, 2025 258   Mercer L 52-62 27%     1 - 21 0 - 15 -18.0 -20.8 +2.5
  Feb 22, 2025 115   @ Chattanooga L 75-76 4%     1 - 22 0 - 16 +4.7 +15.6 -11.1
  Feb 26, 2025 148   @ Furman L 42-85 6%     1 - 23 0 - 17 -39.7 -29.2 -10.9
  Mar 01, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. L 66-81 12%     1 - 24 0 - 18 -16.9 +2.7 -21.8
  Mar 07, 2025 308   VMI L 66-72 29%    
Projected Record 1 - 25 0 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 72.0%