UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#130
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#165
Pace68.0#224
Improvement-4.1#363

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#94
First Shot+0.6#153
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#56
Layup/Dunks-4.3#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#62
Freethrows-0.6#217
Improvement-1.4#344

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#205
First Shot-0.6#200
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#220
Layups/Dunks-2.1#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#117
Freethrows+2.0#85
Improvement-2.7#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 13.2% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 89.2% 91.9% 78.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.5% 83.4% 73.6%
Conference Champion 13.4% 14.7% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.1% 2.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.3% 13.2% 8.4%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 413 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 289   @ Portland W 94-53 71%     1 - 0 +37.3 +16.7 +19.3
  Nov 13, 2024 255   Fresno St. W 91-86 82%     2 - 0 -2.8 +3.4 -6.9
  Nov 17, 2024 250   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 64%     3 - 0 +3.4 +3.5 +1.0
  Nov 20, 2024 174   UTEP L 76-79 71%     3 - 1 -6.8 +5.6 -12.4
  Nov 26, 2024 243   Eastern Washington W 84-75 80%    
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 82-56 99%    
  Dec 05, 2024 159   UC San Diego W 75-70 68%    
  Dec 07, 2024 147   @ UC Davis L 74-76 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 251   Green Bay W 82-72 81%    
  Dec 18, 2024 154   @ Loyola Marymount L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 22, 2024 167   @ Missouri St. L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 03, 2025 175   @ Hawaii L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 269   @ Cal Poly W 81-76 66%    
  Jan 16, 2025 202   UC Riverside W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 147   UC Davis W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 23, 2025 159   @ UC San Diego L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 274   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 30, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 263   Long Beach St. W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 237   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   Hawaii W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 13, 2025 59   @ UC Irvine L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 202   @ UC Riverside W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 274   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-65 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 263   @ Long Beach St. W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 269   Cal Poly W 84-73 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-77 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 59   UC Irvine L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.4 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.2 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 6.4 6.4 3.8 1.4 0.2 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.9 6.0 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.3 5.0 6.8 8.8 11.1 12.2 12.2 11.6 10.0 7.4 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 92.4% 2.2    1.8 0.4
17-3 70.6% 3.4    2.4 0.9 0.0 0.0
16-4 45.7% 3.4    2.0 1.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.1% 2.3    0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 8.4 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 54.7% 46.7% 8.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.0%
19-1 0.9% 45.1% 44.8% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5%
18-2 2.4% 44.6% 44.5% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 0.2%
17-3 4.8% 34.8% 34.7% 0.1% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.1 0.2%
16-4 7.4% 29.1% 29.1% 12.6 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.2
15-5 10.0% 22.9% 22.9% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 7.7
14-6 11.6% 15.8% 15.8% 13.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.7
13-7 12.2% 10.0% 10.0% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.9
12-8 12.2% 6.6% 6.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.4
11-9 11.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.6
10-10 8.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6
9-11 6.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
8-12 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
7-13 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 1.7% 1.7
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.8 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 87.7 0.0%