UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#165
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#178
Pace63.1#318
Improvement-4.0#337

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#162
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#262
Layup/Dunks-2.5#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#44
Freethrows-1.6#279
Improvement-2.8#321

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#193
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#346
Layups/Dunks+1.6#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#112
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement-1.2#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 5.9% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 91.4% 97.4% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 78.2% 90.8% 75.6%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.2% 5.9% 2.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 17.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 46 - 9
Quad 412 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 307   @ Portland W 94-53 70%     1 - 0 +35.5 +14.5 +19.8
  Nov 13, 2024 257   Fresno St. W 91-86 78%     2 - 0 -3.3 +2.5 -6.5
  Nov 17, 2024 159   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 38%     3 - 0 +8.1 +4.8 +4.4
  Nov 20, 2024 131   UTEP L 76-79 53%     3 - 1 -3.9 +6.4 -10.4
  Nov 26, 2024 259   Eastern Washington W 67-51 78%     4 - 1 +7.7 -4.0 +13.5
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 99%     5 - 1 +4.2 +12.2 -1.2
  Dec 05, 2024 79   UC San Diego L 76-84 33%     5 - 2 0 - 1 -3.5 +7.6 -11.4
  Dec 07, 2024 228   @ UC Davis L 60-71 54%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -12.1 -5.1 -7.6
  Dec 14, 2024 332   Green Bay W 83-66 90%     6 - 3 +3.0 -2.4 +4.5
  Dec 18, 2024 153   @ Loyola Marymount L 58-60 36%     6 - 4 +1.5 -8.2 +9.6
  Dec 22, 2024 245   @ Missouri St. L 56-68 57%     6 - 5 -13.9 -4.4 -12.2
  Jan 02, 2025 181   @ Hawaii W 64-61 43%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +4.8 +2.9 +2.4
  Jan 09, 2025 233   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-66 74%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +5.2 +5.4 +0.4
  Jan 11, 2025 287   @ Cal Poly W 75-72 67%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -1.4 +4.6 -5.8
  Jan 16, 2025 173   UC Riverside W 66-63 62%     10 - 5 4 - 2 -0.3 -1.7 +1.7
  Jan 18, 2025 228   UC Davis L 60-64 73%     10 - 6 4 - 3 -10.5 -0.6 -10.6
  Jan 23, 2025 79   @ UC San Diego L 63-73 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 310   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 133   Cal St. Northridge W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 295   Long Beach St. W 73-63 84%    
  Feb 06, 2025 233   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 181   Hawaii W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 13, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 15, 2025 173   @ UC Riverside L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 310   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 295   @ Long Beach St. W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 287   Cal Poly W 82-72 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 133   @ Cal St. Northridge L 72-77 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 64-71 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 7.9 8.4 3.6 0.5 0.0 22.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 9.1 9.0 2.0 0.2 22.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 7.9 8.1 1.9 0.0 19.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.8 6.8 1.5 0.0 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.9 1.1 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.5 12.0 18.0 20.7 19.0 12.0 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 37.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 10.2% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 16.2% 16.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
15-5 1.9% 12.9% 12.9% 12.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-6 6.2% 9.5% 9.5% 12.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.6
13-7 12.0% 6.3% 6.3% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 11.2
12-8 19.0% 4.1% 4.1% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 18.2
11-9 20.7% 2.1% 2.1% 13.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 20.3
10-10 18.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 17.8
9-11 12.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9
8-12 6.5% 6.5
7-13 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 96.8 0.0%