UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#193
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#174
Pace76.5#39
Improvement+3.1#2

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#140
First Shot+0.0#180
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#111
Layup/Dunks+3.6#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#168
Freethrows-3.3#323
Improvement+1.1#49

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#258
First Shot-3.2#280
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#149
Layups/Dunks-0.7#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#83
Freethrows-2.2#292
Improvement+2.0#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 11.8% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 84.0% 86.4% 66.7%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 88.4% 79.6%
Conference Champion 11.0% 11.7% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round10.9% 11.5% 6.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Home) - 87.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 415 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 65   @ Nebraska L 67-87 12%     0 - 1 -8.6 -4.9 -1.9
  Nov 06, 2024 17   @ Creighton L 86-99 5%     0 - 2 +4.3 +13.1 -7.7
  Nov 15, 2024 310   Charleston Southern W 86-76 75%     1 - 2 +1.6 -0.3 +0.8
  Nov 16, 2024 334   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 80%     2 - 2 +14.6 +8.6 +6.9
  Nov 18, 2024 37   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 8%     2 - 3 +11.5 +16.4 -4.9
  Nov 25, 2024 337   Le Moyne W 83-71 88%    
  Dec 05, 2024 181   Stephen F. Austin W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 07, 2024 290   Lamar W 84-76 78%    
  Dec 18, 2024 208   Southern Utah W 83-79 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 357   @ New Orleans W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 06, 2025 270   @ SE Louisiana W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 82-84 44%    
  Jan 13, 2025 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-68 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 358   @ Houston Christian W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 20, 2025 308   @ Incarnate Word W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 91   McNeese St. L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 27, 2025 230   Nicholls St. W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-81 64%    
  Feb 03, 2025 312   @ Northwestern St. W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 290   @ Lamar W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 10, 2025 181   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 358   Houston Christian W 89-73 91%    
  Feb 17, 2025 308   Incarnate Word W 85-75 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 230   @ Nicholls St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 24, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 70-80 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 357   New Orleans W 89-73 92%    
  Mar 03, 2025 270   SE Louisiana W 80-73 73%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 3.2 2.3 0.9 0.2 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9 6.9 5.2 2.1 0.3 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.2 6.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.9 4.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.8 1.0 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.6 8.0 10.3 12.8 13.6 13.4 11.6 8.6 5.4 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
18-2 86.9% 2.3    1.8 0.5
17-3 60.1% 3.2    1.9 1.2 0.1
16-4 33.2% 2.8    1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 11.4% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.2 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 48.8% 48.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.9% 42.6% 42.6% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.6% 37.3% 37.3% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6
17-3 5.4% 31.2% 31.2% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 3.7
16-4 8.6% 24.8% 24.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 6.4
15-5 11.6% 18.8% 18.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 9.4
14-6 13.4% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 11.7
13-7 13.6% 7.4% 7.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 12.6
12-8 12.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 12.2
11-9 10.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.0
10-10 8.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.9
9-11 5.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.5
8-12 3.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.5
7-13 1.9% 1.9
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.5 3.5 1.6 88.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.9 5.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.7 28.6 48.6 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%