Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#40
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#50
Pace66.0#275
Improvement+0.4#130

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#39
First Shot+2.6#99
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#31
Layup/Dunks+6.3#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#273
Freethrows+3.3#40
Improvement+0.2#138

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#55
First Shot+5.7#39
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#247
Layups/Dunks+4.7#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#61
Freethrows-0.3#205
Improvement+0.2#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 11.9% 12.2% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.6% 45.2% 25.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.6% 29.1% 12.6%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 9.6
.500 or above 97.8% 98.0% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 95.4% 89.8%
Conference Champion 30.6% 31.1% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 3.3%
First Round42.0% 42.6% 23.8%
Second Round23.9% 24.4% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen9.9% 10.1% 1.9%
Elite Eight4.3% 4.4% 1.1%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Neutral) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 7
Quad 35 - 112 - 8
Quad 49 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 214   Oakland W 87-43 93%     1 - 0 +38.4 +17.9 +23.6
  Nov 09, 2024 57   @ San Francisco L 73-84 46%     1 - 1 +1.0 +8.8 -8.1
  Nov 17, 2024 46   Clemson W 84-71 65%     2 - 1 +20.2 +13.3 +6.7
  Nov 24, 2024 308   Hampton W 77-58 97%    
  Dec 03, 2024 303   Utah Tech W 84-62 98%    
  Dec 07, 2024 78   Washington St. W 76-72 62%    
  Dec 15, 2024 41   St. Mary's W 69-68 50%    
  Dec 17, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 284   Air Force W 76-56 96%    
  Dec 28, 2024 250   @ San Jose St. W 75-62 88%    
  Dec 31, 2024 189   @ Wyoming W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 63   San Diego St. W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 07, 2025 91   UNLV W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 14, 2025 189   Wyoming W 78-63 92%    
  Jan 17, 2025 58   @ New Mexico L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 22, 2025 101   @ Colorado St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 42   Nevada W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 83-64 95%    
  Feb 04, 2025 91   @ UNLV W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 07, 2025 250   San Jose St. W 78-59 95%    
  Feb 15, 2025 63   @ San Diego St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 58   New Mexico W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 42   @ Nevada L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 45   Utah St. W 79-75 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 80-67 86%    
  Mar 04, 2025 284   @ Air Force W 73-59 89%    
  Mar 07, 2025 101   Colorado St. W 73-64 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.0 8.4 7.3 3.7 0.9 30.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.5 6.2 2.1 0.3 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 4.1 7.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.1 2.1 0.3 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.8 1.4 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.4 0.8 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.4 6.5 9.0 11.3 13.9 13.8 13.7 10.6 7.6 3.7 0.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.7    3.6 0.1
18-2 96.4% 7.3    6.6 0.7
17-3 79.9% 8.4    5.8 2.5 0.2
16-4 51.1% 7.0    3.0 3.1 0.8 0.0
15-5 20.4% 2.8    0.8 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.6% 30.6 20.9 7.7 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 66.8% 33.2% 2.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.7% 98.8% 52.1% 46.7% 4.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5%
18-2 7.6% 96.2% 46.3% 49.9% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 93.0%
17-3 10.6% 89.1% 40.5% 48.6% 7.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 1.1 81.7%
16-4 13.7% 70.5% 30.7% 39.8% 9.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.2 4.0 57.4%
15-5 13.8% 46.5% 22.2% 24.3% 10.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.6 0.5 7.4 31.2%
14-6 13.9% 28.4% 16.2% 12.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.4 0.4 9.9 14.5%
13-7 11.3% 17.1% 11.5% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 9.3 6.3%
12-8 9.0% 8.8% 8.0% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 8.2 0.9%
11-9 6.5% 6.3% 5.9% 0.4% 11.4 0.2 0.2 6.1 0.4%
10-10 4.4% 2.2% 2.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 4.3
9-11 2.5% 1.8% 1.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
8-12 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.6% 0.6
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.6% 22.4% 22.2% 8.3 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.6 4.0 5.4 7.6 10.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 55.4 28.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.7 55.0 27.1 10.7 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 23.3 44.2 23.3 9.3