Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#58
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#73
Pace68.3#201
Improvement-1.7#281

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#64
First Shot+2.4#105
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#62
Layup/Dunks+6.0#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#330
Freethrows+4.7#5
Improvement-3.0#348

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#52
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#33
Layups/Dunks-2.5#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#87
Freethrows+1.7#64
Improvement+1.4#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.8% 27.6% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.9% 12.9% 5.7%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.6
.500 or above 98.2% 99.1% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 95.6% 85.5%
Conference Champion 19.5% 23.1% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.6% 5.1% 3.0%
First Round22.6% 25.1% 15.7%
Second Round9.1% 10.4% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 73.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 25 - 47 - 8
Quad 36 - 213 - 10
Quad 48 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 183   Oakland W 87-43 89%     1 - 0 +39.8 +16.8 +26.1
  Nov 09, 2024 61   @ San Francisco L 73-84 42%     1 - 1 +0.5 +9.9 -9.6
  Nov 17, 2024 37   Clemson W 84-71 51%     2 - 1 +22.0 +14.8 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2024 248   Hampton W 83-69 90%     3 - 1 +9.2 +9.7 -0.2
  Nov 25, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 83-82 74%     4 - 1 +3.7 +11.6 -7.9
  Nov 26, 2024 167   Boston College L 61-63 82%     4 - 2 -2.4 -11.3 +8.8
  Dec 03, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 87-64 95%     5 - 2 +13.3 +16.5 -1.2
  Dec 07, 2024 74   Washington St. L 69-74 57%     5 - 3 +2.6 -1.9 +4.7
  Dec 14, 2024 53   St. Mary's W 67-65 OT 46%     6 - 3 +12.3 +4.3 +8.1
  Dec 17, 2024 299   Texas Southern W 82-51 96%     7 - 3 +20.5 +1.6 +17.3
  Dec 21, 2024 269   Air Force W 77-59 94%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +9.2 +6.6 +4.2
  Dec 28, 2024 162   @ San Jose St. W 74-68 73%    
  Dec 31, 2024 159   @ Wyoming W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 38   San Diego St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 07, 2025 106   UNLV W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 14, 2025 159   Wyoming W 76-64 87%    
  Jan 17, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 97   @ Colorado St. W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 60   Nevada W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 84-65 95%    
  Feb 04, 2025 106   @ UNLV W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 07, 2025 162   San Jose St. W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 19, 2025 64   New Mexico W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 60   @ Nevada L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 47   Utah St. W 75-73 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 273   @ Fresno St. W 81-68 87%    
  Mar 04, 2025 269   @ Air Force W 72-60 86%    
  Mar 07, 2025 97   Colorado St. W 74-67 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.0 5.2 2.7 1.0 0.1 19.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.8 7.5 3.9 0.8 0.1 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.3 7.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.7 6.0 1.6 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.6 1.2 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.1 0.9 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 6.5 9.8 12.9 15.0 15.3 13.3 10.0 6.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 97.6% 2.7    2.5 0.2
17-3 86.1% 5.2    4.1 1.1 0.1
16-4 59.7% 6.0    3.1 2.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 26.0% 3.5    0.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.5% 19.5 11.8 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 94.2% 42.3% 51.9% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 90.0%
18-2 2.8% 85.1% 36.5% 48.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 76.5%
17-3 6.1% 69.1% 33.6% 35.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.0 1.9 53.5%
16-4 10.0% 49.6% 26.0% 23.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 0.1 5.1 31.8%
15-5 13.3% 32.5% 21.1% 11.3% 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 0.2 9.0 14.4%
14-6 15.3% 21.2% 15.9% 5.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.0 6.3%
13-7 15.0% 14.0% 12.3% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.3 12.9 2.0%
12-8 12.9% 9.5% 8.9% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 11.7 0.7%
11-9 9.8% 7.2% 7.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.1 0.1%
10-10 6.5% 4.9% 4.9% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.2
9-11 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.7
8-12 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-13 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.8% 15.6% 9.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 5.3 11.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 75.2 10.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 9.4 37.5 28.1 18.8 6.3