Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.1#342
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#219
Pace78.5#22
Improvement+1.4#50

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#281
First Shot-3.0#263
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#223
Layup/Dunks+0.4#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#250
Freethrows+0.4#164
Improvement+1.1#46

Defense
Total Defense-8.3#363
First Shot-5.3#324
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#327
Layups/Dunks-4.6#317
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
Freethrows+2.9#50
Improvement+0.3#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 8.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.5% 19.4% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 45.1% 55.4% 41.9%
Conference Champion 5.6% 8.9% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 16.2% 10.6% 17.9%
First Four5.4% 7.2% 4.9%
First Round2.3% 3.6% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 23.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 49 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 37   @ Miami (FL) L 72-113 2%     0 - 1 -26.5 +0.1 -24.1
  Nov 10, 2024 17   @ Creighton L 70-96 1%     0 - 2 -8.7 -2.7 -3.2
  Nov 13, 2024 65   @ Nebraska L 60-86 2%     0 - 3 -14.6 -8.1 -5.6
  Nov 17, 2024 328   Manhattan W 85-82 52%     1 - 3 -9.5 +7.2 -16.6
  Nov 20, 2024 303   @ Army L 68-76 24%    
  Nov 26, 2024 178   St. Peter's L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 01, 2024 274   Fairfield L 76-79 38%    
  Dec 04, 2024 161   @ Fordham L 72-87 8%    
  Dec 11, 2024 69   @ Villanova L 66-89 2%    
  Dec 18, 2024 120   @ La Salle L 69-87 5%    
  Dec 21, 2024 90   @ Minnesota L 61-82 3%    
  Dec 28, 2024 133   @ Boston College L 69-86 7%    
  Jan 05, 2025 280   @ Wagner L 62-71 21%    
  Jan 10, 2025 336   @ Le Moyne L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 12, 2025 343   St. Francis (PA) W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 256   Central Connecticut St. L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 20, 2025 349   @ Chicago St. L 80-82 43%    
  Jan 26, 2025 344   @ Stonehill L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 336   Le Moyne W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 256   @ Central Connecticut St. L 71-81 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 280   Wagner L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 349   Chicago St. W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn L 79-83 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 343   @ St. Francis (PA) L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 344   Stonehill W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 82-80 56%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.1 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.6 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.6 4.7 1.0 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.6 5.2 1.0 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.5 5.4 1.1 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 5.0 5.3 1.2 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 4.2 1.2 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.8 9th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.0 8.2 11.1 13.3 13.7 13.1 11.2 8.5 6.2 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 94.7% 0.7    0.6 0.1
13-3 77.3% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
12-4 49.6% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-5 20.9% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
10-6 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 40.2% 40.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.1
14-2 0.7% 31.6% 31.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.5
13-3 1.8% 24.5% 24.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4
12-4 3.3% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.7
11-5 6.2% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.8 5.3
10-6 8.5% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 1.0 7.6
9-7 11.2% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.9 10.3
8-8 13.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.7 12.4
7-9 13.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 13.2
6-10 13.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 13.0
5-11 11.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.0
4-12 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-13 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
2-14 2.5% 2.5
1-15 1.0% 1.0
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.7 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%