Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#156
Expected Predictive Rating+6.5#87
Pace76.8#35
Improvement-0.8#275

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#167
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#294
Layup/Dunks-0.6#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#33
Freethrows-0.8#223
Improvement-0.4#240

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#177
First Shot-7.1#354
After Offensive Rebounds+6.8#1
Layups/Dunks+1.8#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#327
Freethrows-4.9#353
Improvement-0.4#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 8.1% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 51.6% 66.6% 40.9%
.500 or above in Conference 53.4% 62.8% 46.7%
Conference Champion 6.6% 9.4% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.7% 7.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round5.9% 8.0% 4.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Neutral) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 47 - 214 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 98   Yale W 91-79 42%     1 - 0 +14.2 +9.9 +3.2
  Nov 12, 2024 74   @ Northwestern L 74-83 16%     1 - 1 +1.8 +4.8 -2.8
  Nov 21, 2024 126   James Madison L 78-80 42%    
  Dec 04, 2024 119   Northern Iowa L 75-76 50%    
  Dec 08, 2024 339   Dartmouth W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 15, 2024 205   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 20, 2024 135   @ Seattle L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 29, 2024 173   @ Illinois St. L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 01, 2025 106   Drake L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 80-84 36%    
  Jan 07, 2025 167   @ Missouri St. L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 95   Bradley L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 15, 2025 111   Murray St. L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 299   @ Evansville W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 95   @ Bradley L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 86-81 65%    
  Feb 05, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 11, 2025 111   @ Murray St. L 70-77 29%    
  Feb 16, 2025 167   Missouri St. W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 106   @ Drake L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 299   Evansville W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 26, 2025 119   @ Northern Iowa L 73-79 31%    
  Mar 02, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 81-72 78%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 3.1 0.8 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 3.1 4.7 6.7 8.5 10.0 10.9 11.1 10.6 9.4 7.7 5.8 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 98.8% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-3 90.0% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 67.2% 1.8    1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 40.9% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 14.7% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.9 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 57.5% 46.0% 11.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.3%
18-2 0.6% 39.6% 35.2% 4.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 6.8%
17-3 1.4% 31.5% 30.6% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.3%
16-4 2.6% 24.2% 24.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 0.1%
15-5 4.1% 20.7% 20.7% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.2 0.1%
14-6 5.8% 15.0% 15.0% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.9
13-7 7.7% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.8
12-8 9.4% 7.8% 7.8% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.6
11-9 10.6% 4.9% 4.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.0
10-10 11.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 10.9% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
8-12 10.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
7-13 8.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.5
6-14 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.7
5-15 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-16 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.0% 5.9% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 94.0 0.1%