Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#199
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#131
Pace72.5#89
Improvement-1.3#268

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#194
First Shot-0.9#195
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks+0.5#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement-3.3#353

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#193
First Shot-0.9#200
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks-3.4#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#113
Freethrows+0.8#137
Improvement+2.0#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 33.7% 50.2% 25.7%
.500 or above in Conference 26.0% 41.0% 18.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 13.7% 5.8% 17.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 87 - 14
Quad 46 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 100   Yale W 91-79 35%     1 - 0 +14.3 +9.9 +3.4
  Nov 12, 2024 61   @ Northwestern L 74-83 10%     1 - 1 +3.1 +7.4 -4.0
  Nov 21, 2024 115   James Madison L 81-99 32%     1 - 2 -14.8 +2.2 -15.5
  Nov 22, 2024 164   La Salle W 96-83 45%     2 - 2 +12.6 +16.0 -4.4
  Nov 23, 2024 159   East Carolina L 55-72 44%     2 - 3 -17.2 -12.5 -6.2
  Dec 04, 2024 98   Northern Iowa L 56-83 34%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -24.5 -9.3 -18.8
  Dec 08, 2024 312   Dartmouth W 69-68 OT 82%     3 - 4 -10.4 -18.1 +7.6
  Dec 15, 2024 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 OT 50%     4 - 4 +6.3 +4.5 +1.6
  Dec 20, 2024 170   @ Seattle W 79-68 35%     5 - 4 +13.4 +3.6 +9.3
  Dec 29, 2024 153   @ Illinois St. L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 01, 2025 67   Drake L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 133   @ Belmont L 79-85 28%    
  Jan 07, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 79   Bradley L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 15, 2025 124   Murray St. L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 22, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 68-80 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 82-81 54%    
  Feb 05, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 11, 2025 124   @ Murray St. L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 16, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 67   @ Drake L 61-74 12%    
  Feb 22, 2025 290   Evansville W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 26, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 68-78 18%    
  Mar 02, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.5 2.2 0.2 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.4 2.7 6.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 14.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 3.3 4.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 12.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.1 9.5 12.1 14.2 14.0 12.9 10.0 7.0 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 54.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 29.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 10.3% 10.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.2% 12.6% 12.6% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-7 2.5% 7.3% 7.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
12-8 4.6% 5.6% 5.6% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
11-9 7.0% 3.5% 3.5% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.7
10-10 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8
9-11 12.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.7
8-12 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.9
7-13 14.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 12.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
5-15 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
4-16 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-17 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%