Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#199
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#146
Pace70.4#131
Improvement-1.6#249

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#200
First Shot-1.8#224
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#123
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#351
Freethrows+3.4#24
Improvement+2.0#79

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#205
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#89
Layups/Dunks-5.2#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#117
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-3.5#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 14.8% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 96.3% 99.3% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 94.6% 78.9%
Conference Champion 13.0% 21.8% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round11.8% 14.8% 9.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 334   Morgan St. W 84-66 88%     1 - 0 +3.9 -1.8 +5.0
  Nov 13, 2024 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 53%     2 - 0 +11.5 -8.1 +17.7
  Nov 16, 2024 288   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 79%     3 - 0 -8.0 -12.0 +4.1
  Nov 19, 2024 322   @ Binghamton W 66-60 68%     4 - 0 -0.6 -1.6 +1.9
  Nov 22, 2024 97   UAB W 89-81 25%     5 - 0 +13.2 +12.1 +0.9
  Nov 24, 2024 74   McNeese St. L 69-84 19%     5 - 1 -7.5 +0.5 -8.1
  Nov 25, 2024 89   Kansas St. L 64-80 22%     5 - 2 -9.6 -6.0 -3.6
  Dec 05, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 93%     6 - 2 -14.1 -0.5 -13.5
  Dec 14, 2024 306   NC Central L 70-77 80%     6 - 3 -17.7 -8.5 -9.3
  Dec 18, 2024 252   @ Campbell W 77-55 53%     7 - 3 +19.6 +10.1 +11.0
  Dec 20, 2024 306   @ NC Central W 82-67 63%     8 - 3 +9.8 +7.2 +3.0
  Dec 29, 2024 37   @ SMU L 82-98 7%     8 - 4 -1.0 +7.6 -7.1
  Jan 02, 2025 273   @ Presbyterian L 60-68 58%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -11.7 -11.0 -1.2
  Jan 04, 2025 279   Charleston Southern W 83-78 77%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -4.4 +7.9 -12.2
  Jan 08, 2025 187   UNC Asheville W 85-76 59%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +5.1 +6.0 -0.9
  Jan 11, 2025 197   @ Winthrop L 76-95 39%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -17.9 -1.9 -15.0
  Jan 16, 2025 105   High Point W 82-80 40%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +2.9 +4.8 -1.9
  Jan 22, 2025 204   @ Radford L 69-71 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 338   South Carolina Upstate W 85-72 88%    
  Jan 29, 2025 239   @ Gardner-Webb L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 279   @ Charleston Southern W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 204   Radford W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 12, 2025 105   @ High Point L 74-82 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 273   Presbyterian W 74-67 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 239   Gardner-Webb W 78-73 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 187   @ UNC Asheville L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 197   Winthrop W 81-78 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 82-75 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.7 4.1 5.4 2.3 0.5 13.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 7.5 9.3 2.7 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 8.3 11.3 2.3 0.1 23.0 3rd
4th 0.5 5.5 9.0 2.0 0.0 17.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 7.7 1.9 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.3 2.2 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 9.3 16.5 20.6 21.4 15.7 8.2 2.4 0.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5
13-3 94.7% 2.3    1.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 65.9% 5.4    2.7 2.3 0.4
11-5 26.1% 4.1    0.6 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 5.7 4.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.5% 28.0% 28.0% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-3 2.4% 30.5% 30.5% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.7
12-4 8.2% 21.5% 21.5% 14.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 6.5
11-5 15.7% 18.4% 18.4% 14.5 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.0 12.8
10-6 21.4% 11.8% 11.8% 14.9 0.6 1.7 0.3 18.9
9-7 20.6% 9.3% 9.3% 15.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 18.6
8-8 16.5% 8.1% 8.1% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 15.2
7-9 9.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.1 0.4 8.8
6-10 3.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.7
5-11 1.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.3
4-12 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.7 1.9 88.0 0.0%