Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#181
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#107
Pace69.2#177
Improvement-1.1#257

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#222
First Shot-2.3#243
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#144
Layup/Dunks+2.8#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.1#359
Freethrows+6.3#1
Improvement+0.5#137

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot-2.6#260
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#17
Layups/Dunks-9.4#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows+3.7#19
Improvement-1.6#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 15.4% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 85.7% 86.8% 64.2%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 76.5% 62.6%
Conference Champion 20.1% 20.6% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.5% 5.7%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round14.8% 15.1% 9.4%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 340   Morgan St. W 84-66 89%     1 - 0 +3.9 +0.8 +2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 193   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 63%     2 - 0 +9.6 -11.3 +19.0
  Nov 16, 2024 314   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 84%     3 - 0 -9.6 -10.4 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 320   @ Binghamton W 66-60 69%     4 - 0 -0.1 -0.3 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 130   UAB W 89-81 39%     5 - 0 +9.9 +10.8 -1.2
  Nov 24, 2024 79   McNeese St. L 69-84 24%     5 - 1 -8.5 -1.3 -7.2
  Nov 25, 2024 58   Kansas St. L 64-80 16%     5 - 2 -6.5 -3.9 -2.5
  Dec 05, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-61 95%    
  Dec 14, 2024 274   NC Central W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 18, 2024 264   @ Campbell W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 20, 2024 274   @ NC Central W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 29, 2024 64   @ SMU L 69-82 13%    
  Jan 02, 2025 233   @ Presbyterian L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 311   Charleston Southern W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 08, 2025 178   UNC Asheville W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 187   @ Winthrop L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 152   High Point W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 22, 2025 191   @ Radford L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 342   South Carolina Upstate W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 29, 2025 207   @ Gardner-Webb L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 311   @ Charleston Southern W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 191   Radford W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 12, 2025 152   @ High Point L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 233   Presbyterian W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 207   Gardner-Webb W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 178   @ UNC Asheville L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 187   Winthrop W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-72 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.1 5.6 3.2 1.0 0.3 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 7.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.8 6.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.8 2.2 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.2 2.1 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 2.1 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 1.7 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 6.9 9.9 13.0 14.7 14.8 13.0 9.5 6.3 3.2 1.0 0.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
14-2 98.6% 3.2    3.0 0.2
13-3 88.6% 5.6    4.3 1.2 0.0
12-4 63.6% 6.1    2.8 2.7 0.6 0.0
11-5 25.5% 3.3    0.7 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.5% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.1 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 65.4% 65.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.0% 41.1% 41.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-2 3.2% 38.9% 38.9% 13.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0
13-3 6.3% 30.8% 30.8% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 4.4
12-4 9.5% 26.6% 26.6% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 7.0
11-5 13.0% 20.3% 20.3% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 10.3
10-6 14.8% 15.9% 15.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 12.4
9-7 14.7% 11.3% 11.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 13.1
8-8 13.0% 8.4% 8.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 11.9
7-9 9.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 9.3
6-10 6.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.3 6.6
5-11 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.1
4-12 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-13 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.0 4.3 1.5 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.2 4.8 23.8 4.8 4.8 38.1 23.8